Will The Wise is tailor-made for the Topham and looks a good bet, at the general 8-1 on offer, to land Friday’s big handicap chase at Aintree.
The Gavin Cromwell-trained seven-year-old is a fluent jumper with a good cruising speed, which is a good starting point for any horse running over the
Grand National fences, and he is only 2lb higher than when beating all bar Madara in the Plate at last month’s Cheltenham Festival.
Will The Wise was having his first start since Christmas that day, plus has had a full month to recharge his batteries, so freshness should not be an issue.
It’s not as if he had an overly hard race at Cheltenham, either, as he travelled strongly up near the pace before being unable to match Madara from the second last.
Watch how Madara beat Will The Wise at Cheltenham
He may again bump into the winner, the 6-1 ante-post favourite, but he gets an 8lb pull in the weights and I’d be wary of Madara being in quite the same form as his whole season seemed to have been geared around Cheltenham, where he landed plenty of good bets.
Moreover, the challenges of Aintree seem certain to play to the strengths of Will The Wise, whereas Madara has shown a soft spot for Cheltenham.
The course may not provide the test of jumping that it once did, but that’s not to say that good jumpers are not rewarded.
RaceiQ’s data tells us the first pair home in 2023 gained 32 lengths with their jumping, while the first three a year later gained 25 lengths. And, 12 months ago, the first two swiped an aggregate of 23 lengths.
Will The Wise is accurate over his fences, as he was over hurdles, and has gained almost 62 lengths in his seven starts over fences, including nine in the cauldron of Cheltenham last time despite an error at the ditch four from home.
Gentleman De Mee put up a remarkable effort in last year's race
The one negative is that his regular rider, Keith Donoghue, has not ridden below 11st in the past year, and that Will The Wise has 10st 5lb to carry as things stand, although that could yet change.
I’m also going to have a couple of small each-way savers on Gentleman De Mee and Lisnamult Lad, who fought out the finish of last year’s renewal.
Gentleman De Mee put up a remarkable effort to take the spoils as he was last in the early stages after being slow away and had to pick his way through the whole field, which is a rarity at Aintree these days.
He completed the final half mile in 55.78sec, whereas nothing else in the field dipped under 57sec.
The ten-year-old has offered little in three Graded races this term, being beaten 103 lengths, but he has not been given a hard time and it would be no surprise if he revives. If he does, then he should make a bold bid to retain his crown and provide Willie Mullins with his fourth winner of the race since 2019.
Always Waining and Ultragold have been recent two-time/three-time winners of the race.
Lisnamult Lad has offered even less in his two races this term, taking a tumble over hurdles on his return when on the retreat before being pulled up back over fences at Leopardstown over Christmas when partnered by an amateur.
He took so well to the course last year, though, that the general 20-1 chance is impossible to ignore, and his 105-day absence is of no concern as his overall record when fresh is most encouraging.
How To Bet £20 ante-post on the Topham
£9 win and £2.50 on Will The Wise at a general 8-1
£1.50 each-way on Gentleman De Mee at 10-1 with Ladbrokes
£1.50 each-way on Lisnamult Lad at 20-1