Horse racing tips for Saturday: Dave Nevison's best bets
By Dave Nevison
Last Updated: Tue 5 Dec 2023
Top tipster Dave Nevison marks your card for Saturday's action at Newbury, live on Racing TV.
It looks a decent Saturday card at Newbury this weekend and hopefully these four will handle whatever conditions arise. Best of luck, and don't forget to enjoy all the action on Racing TV and Racing TV Extra.
Dave Nevison
Finished: 1stSP: 5/6
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The key angle for tipping Arrest is the ground as, based on my reading of Friday’s forecast, it seems unlikely that Newbury will avoid the heavy rain that is due to, in particular, hit the west of the country.
Every drop that falls will suit Arrest perfectly as he has not had his ground at all recently, and has disappointed. He is down in grade having been highly tried in Group One (he was sent off favourite for the Derby) & Group Two company on his past two outings.
He is now pitched into a Group Three and he won the Chester Vase in really good style on his latest start at this level.
If the going does change to heavy, he will shorten up dramatically as he narrowly lost on his final outing last season in the Group One Criterium de Saint-Cloud on this ground, and is seriously effective under such conditions.
Dave Nevison
Finished: 7thSP: 28/1
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I found myself going around in circles looking at this race, and eventually came down on a left-field tip for Punchbowl Flyer who, more than most in this field, will be suited by rain-softened ground.
In fact, it seems a necessity for him to show his best. He was tried in Group Three company for Eve Johnson Houghton and has dropped to a rating of 86 having been rated 105 two years ago.
This will be his first start for John O’Shea who had a 25-1 second at Wolverhampton on Thursday, and his string might be in better form than recent numbers suggest.
Punchbowl Flyer would not be the first sprinter to be reinvigorated by a change of environment. The six-year-old is proven at Newbury and regular jockey Charles Bisho,p who has won on him seven times, takes the mount.
If conditions come his way, it wouldn't be the biggest shock if he went close.
Dave Nevison
Finished: 1stSP: 15/2
Seven furlongs on softened ground is probably as far as Spangled Mac wants to go, but there is no doubt he is becoming well handicapped, and he might be worth risking here.
George Boughey has booked William Buick (who won on him at York last season) to ride but has also added cheekpieces to the tongue strap he usually wears, and both look like positive indicators.
The selection has won on good to soft ground before, so I am hoping conditions will be OK for him. He ran better than his finishing position at Ascot last time out and is a pound lower here.
Although he's drawn in stall 14, a glance through the results of previous renewals of this race suggests that won’t be an issue.
Dave Nevison
Finished: 3rdSP: 2/1
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Won the Greenham here as a three-year-old and seven furlongs on a galloping track like Newbury looks ideal for him these days.
Chindit has already won twice at Group Two level and after a career banging his head trying to break through the ceiling and win a Group One, he drops back down in class here.
He will be ridden close to the lead if he doesn’t manage to head Pogo, and it will be tough for any of his rivals to get past him if he is on a going day.
Only extremely soft ground would be a concern, but I expect a good performance from him after a refreshing break.
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