Runners to note and big-race verdict: Woodford Reserve Cardinal Conditions Stakes

The Woodford Reserve Cardinal Conditions Stakes is the final stop on the European Road To The Kentucky Derby and the £100,000 highlight takes centre stage on a valuable card at Chelmsford on Saturday.

A classy field of eight lines up for one of the highlights of the year at the Essex track and we pick out three of interest plus an outsider to note, though some quick housekeeping first:

First introduced in 2018, the European Road To The Kentucky Derby is a seven-race series giving European-trained horses the chance of an invitation to the Run For The Roses on the first Saturday in May at Churchill Downs. 

The Woodford Reserve Cardinal Conditions Stakes is the series finale and, as well as being the most valuable contest of the septet, provides the most qualifying points for the top five finishers with 30 up for grabs for the winner.

The preceding races in the European Road To The Kentucky Derby are the Beresford Stakes (Curragh), Royal Lodge Stakes (Newmarket), Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere (Longchamp), Futurity Trophy (Doncaster), Road To The Kentucky Derby Conditions Stakes (Kempton Park) and Patton Stakes (Dundalk).

Bergamasco, the Patton Stakes winner trained by Jack Davison, has 20 points along with unbeaten colt Notable Speech, trained by Charlie Appleby and an impressive last-to-first winner of the qualifying race at Kempton. 

That Godolphin colt does not go forward here, though Cuban Tiger (10 points) and Capulet (3) are both in the running.

You’d have to say that is pretty unlikely at this stage, a state of affairs that has been a common theme in the fairly short history of the series despite what seemed a very propitious debut year when series winner Gronkowski finished second to Justify in the Belmont after a late setback ruled him out of the Kentucky Derby for then-trainer Jeremy Noseda.

We still have a big prize to play for and consequently there are several high-class horses here, including KPMG Champions Juvenile Stakes runner-up Capulet, while Bracken’s Laugh and Redhot Whisper were last seen in Group One company. Cuban Tiger won the Burradon Stakes last weekend.

After Thursday's declarations, here are three names to note among the final field - plus an outsider that can go well at big odds.

Trainer: Aidan O'Brien Odds: 6-4

The clear choice on form, he made 8-15F Diego Valezquez pull out all the stops at the Irish Champions Festival at Leopardstown last autumn and he signed off his juvenile season with a third in the Royal Lodge, beaten under two lengths by the impressive Ghostwriter. 

I don't think he was quite up to par at Newmarket (sent off 7-4F) and he came under a bit of pressure at around the half-way stage when the pace quickened to around 40mph, but to his credit he stuck on well towards the finish and that admirable trait is in common with both of his prior performances, starting with his career debut at Dundalk. 

He looks a stayer at this one-mile trip - he's by Justify out of a mare with Group One form over ten furlongs - and this is a significant step down in class on his return to action. He rightly assumes market favouritism, even if his yard is yet to be fully firing at this very early stage.

Trainer Aidan O'Brien has not had a runner at Chelmsford for approaching four a half years - on that last occasion he has four runners on the card, with two winners ridden by his son and now trainer Donnacha - though his small total of six course runners would have yielded an overall profit.

Trainer: Jack Davison Odds: 14-1

Very progressive on the all-weather at Dundalk over the winter, the Churchill colt has taken particular leaps forward on his last two starts and especially most recently when landing the Patton Stakes as the 10-1 outsider of three under Ronan Whelan. 

He has three wins from four starts over a mile and the more recent uptick in his performance seems to have coincided with settling better and being dropped out in his races after previously racing well up with the pace.

Such a scenario suited him well on his penultimate start at Dundalk when he had that handicap won miles out under top-weight – he was quicker than his rivals by over a second in the final three furlongs – and he won with plenty in hand when he was dropped out again at Dundalk. 

A bigger field with several here who like to go forward - including Blue Lemons, Capulet, Cuban Tiger, Under The Sun and Redhot Whisper - could tee this up nicely for all this is a new test and a step up in grade.

Trainer: Richard HughesOdds: 9-1

A winner of the Haynes, Hanson and Clark Conditions Stakes on career debut at Newbury, he looked to need all of that mile trip after being niggled along a few furlongs from home when the pace increased and the Zoffany colt is out of a Monsun mare and closely related to several stayers. 

He didn’t shape too badly in the Criterium de Saint-Cloud last time, perhaps not best placed towards the rear in that Group One assignment in what was a dash for home over 10 furlongs (110% finishing speed percentage). He faded quite dramatically inside the final half furlong after making up ground from the back of the field and that jump to the top level may have been a stiff ask in itself. 

These are calmer waters for a trainer who has enjoyed a good winter on the all-weather and an excellent start to 2024 so far, with 13 winners from 42 runners as of April 2 (31 per cent, 60 per cent win and place, +£18.25, 1.5 A/E).

Trainer: Ben BrookhouseOdds: 40-1

This Too Darn Hot colt blew out in the Kameko Futurity Trophy last time, but the suspicion is that he wasn’t at his best on that Group One occasion and he’s of some interest here on his return after a break. 

He ran well on debut at Leicester, where despite running plenty green he stuck on nicely in a well-run seven-furlong novice, going all the way to the line and posting the fastest final furlong.

He was again keen at Doncaster next time in a more steadily-run event (106% finishing speed percentage), but he looked best in the final three furlongs when he has some pace to aim at and that form worked out really nicely. He split the winner God’s Window and third Deira Mile, with both not beaten far in third and fourth in the Kameko Futurity Trophy next time.

That collateral form gives hope to the view that Redhot Whisper wasn’t at his best last time and, while he’s unproven on the all-weather, he’s out of an Exceed And Excel mare and is a half-brother to two all-weather winners. 

This looks a good renewal with a compelling favourite with proper Group form coming over from Ballydoyle, another thriving Irish challenger lining up and several other contenders having contested Group One company as juveniles. Under The Sun, one of the likely outsiders here, was fairly closely matched with subsequent Listed winner and Royal Lodge runner-up Al Musmak in novice company last summer. 

Capulet should take the beating given the strength of his form and he looks a strong stayer at a mile, but there are plenty here who like to go forward and this could be well run with plenty of jostling for the lead. You'd perhaps want to see him just ridden out of the heat of any battle before utilising that excellent attitude late in the day if you were to take relatively short prices. 

While there doesn't seem to be any obvious 'ricks' at the early prices, the two who look to be slightly underestimated are Bergamasco and Redhot Whisper. The former should more than get the pace he needs to utilise the trusty hold-up tactics which have served him to such good effect of late and he still looks to be improving, while Redhot Whisper ran below par in the Futurity Trophy and the strength of his previous maiden form - fairly well advertised in the same Group One race - means he can be given another chance at his chunky 40/1 quotes, especially since this all-weather switch could be a good move on his pedigree.