Horse racing tips: Dave Nevison’s best bets for Thursday

2.33 Southwell: Primo

He's bidding for his third win over course and distance since the end of September and looks an obvious choice in a weak race.

Primo jumped from winning a 0-55 handicap on his penultimate start right into the 0-75 bracket last time and it looked as though that was too big a leap as he finished well beaten. He’s been dropped 1lb since then and is back down to 0-60 class here, which should prove within his range.

Primo looks to be perfectly placed on the outside of two speed merchants and should get a good tow into the race. Hopefully he’ll able to take up the running in the last furlong.

3.03 Southwell: Selfish Brian

He’s had excuses on both runs for Nigel Tinkler so far - not getting a clear run on stable debut and then finding 1m6f too far last time - but on the plus side he has dropped 3lb down the handicap which means he is now qualified to run at this basement 0-55 level.

Selfish Brian has surprisingly never been tried over a mile and a half as yet but the trip could well be ideal for him judged on a couple of his runs. He’s won off 1lb higher on turf already this year and definitely looks as though he has been given every chance of winning another modest race such as this.

5.05 Southwell: Politics

A few regular readers have disagreed with my politics over the years, but I would be very surprised if too many disagree with me in putting this one up as a bet. He looks one to get some of my Christmas expenses back and I shall be getting involved.

Politics is a very typical purchase for The Horsewatchers in that he has back form way above the level he is currently contesting level he is currently and would prove a money-spinner if he was to be revived.

His best run was probably when second at Wolverhampton off a mark of 80 last year. He has raced off higher but has dropped 22lb since his highest career rating and now races off a mark of 65.

The move to Mick Appleby is a well-trodden path for his connections and Politics showed clear signs on his only run so far that the change of stables had been beneficial when finishing a good second at Wolverhampton last week.

If Politics is back in good form he will win this very modest handicap which is populated by a host of largely out of form rivals, with not a single one even reaching the frame last time out. He looks a nap.