Festive racing: five best bets across five meetings

Best odds: 16-1

Five of the 11 declared runners for Saturday’s feature at Ascot are aged eight or above and I think it is the oldest horse in the line-up that is being underestimated.

Yes, others probably have room for more improvement, but we still don't know how good Lorna Fowler’s ten-year-old is over three miles and the way he saw out the two and a half miles on testing ground to win the Lismullen Hurdle at Navan last time (which was a career best) suggests he has every chance of getting home at Ascot over further.

With so little jumping in the closing stages at Navan and in what was a strongly-run race, it turned into a real test, with his finishing speed percentage of just 94.16 the highest in the contest.

He is ground versatile and is incredibly consistent, barely ever running a bad race. With no standout performer in this division, I fancy this veteran to reward each-way backers at a decent price.

Best odds: 5-2

If this race did not already look exciting enough, it now seems very likely we are in for a rematch between Fact To File and his conqueror Gaelic Warrior after the pair served up a treat in the John Durkan last month.

This is far from a two-horse race of course, but my preference would be for the JP McManus runner to reverse the form and land a fifth Grade One.

Super impressive when winning the Ryanair Chase in March, he then disappointed at Punchestown, but that was over two miles and he never looked comfortable.

We know he stays three miles well having won the Brown Advisory and having placed in the Savills Chase and Irish Gold Cup last season, and he is an outstanding jumper, having recorded a Jump Index of 9.5 last time and holding a career Jump Index of 8.5.

Whilst Gaelic Warrior also stays and is a fantastic jumper of a fence, he has been keen plenty of times in the past and turned over at short odds, and I was impressed with the way Fact To File hunted him down by himself last time. Though he got to the front narrowly and still could not quite win, I think this test will suit him perfectly with plenty more pace likely to be on.

One thing is for sure, a great race is in prospect.

Best odds: 3-1

Unsurprisingly, Willie Mullins and Gordon Elliott have dominated this race in recent years, with six and four wins respectively over the past decade, although Mullins has not saddled the winner since Facile Vega obliged at short odds three years ago.

That may change this year courtesy of the hugely talented Le Divin Enfant, a son of Saint Des Saints who made a winning Irish debut at Thurles last month on his first run for 415 days. He was entitled to win that race, doing so effortlessly by a wide margin, but he did very little wrong throughout and gained over 23 lengths in the air. 

His form in France has been well advertised; his second and final start there (first start over hurdles) was a fourth-placed finish behind Lulamba and ahead of subsequent Grade One winner Lanivtsi.

A full-brother to Imperial Saint, I expect him to stay much further in the future, but he does not appear to be short of gears and Paul Townend was very complimentary about him after his last run. The 3-1 on offer could be value with this race likely to cut up somewhat.

Best odds: 16-1

Collectors Item is by Flemensfirth, is a full-brother to Galmoy Hurdle winner Royal Kahala, and is the grandson of dual Cleeve Hurdle winner and Stayers Hurdle-placed Lady Rebecca, so it is no surprise that he's all about stamina. 

He has not always been straightforward, but bar a couple of disappointing efforts, he has generally been a better horse since the O’Neills fitted him with blinkers last year.

Last season, he seemingly needed the run first time out and he then fiished second in the London National at Sandown on soft ground. He then took another step forward on his third run of the season to beat subsequent winner Katate Dori by three lengths to win the Somerset National at Wincanton, giving him almost a stone in weight.

He gave Jubilee Express (who is the current favourite for this year’s Welsh National after finishing second 12 months ago), a real race on his reappearance at this track, going down by just over two lengths, and I would have the pair much closer in the betting for this, especially given the O’Neills were going through a real quiet spell at the time and many of their horses were underperforming.

Best odds: 9-2

My colleague Harry Allwood highlighted earlier this week how he thought the New Course at Cheltenham would play to Booster Bob’s strengths on New Year’s Day and I am very much in agreement. 

His form figures over fences are 132311, with career best efforts on his two most recent starts, firstly when registering a remarkable victory in a red hot renewal of the Greatwood Gold Cup at Newbury ahead of Vincenzo and Saint Segal, and then on his seasonal reappearance when comfortably winning the Sir Peter O’Sullevan Memorial Handicap Chase at Newbury by four and a half lengths.

He is versatile with regards to ground conditions and can cope with another 7lb rise from the handicapper here over a trip he is thoroughly unexposed over since sent chasing.

He jumped particularly well last time, with RaceiQ giving him a Jump Index of 8.1 and Sean Bowen is likely to be on board yet again. He looks very solid.