Horse racing tips: Dave Nevison's best bets for Leicester

3.50 Leicester: Persuasion

Persuasion posted a good run over course and distance and on similar ground on his final outing of last season and that’s a strong factor in putting him up.

He’s been lightly-raced this season but has run extremely well in two of his three races. He won at Haydock in April - beating a very useful stable companion - and then burst a blood vessel and had a two-month break before running another good race behind the progressive Aratus at Goodwood.

It’s clear Persuasion runs well after a reasonable break - and he might actually need it to run well. He’ll hardly have a more determined rider in William Buick, who is still battling for the title.

4.25 Leicester: Avarice

Adam Kirby takes over from a 5lb claimer and I don’t expect Avarice to go off 20/1 this time.

All of his form in Ireland came on soft ground, and he has tumbled down the weights racing on the all-weather and seemingly unsuitable fast ground in this country. His one decent run came on soft ground on his penultimate start, beaten less than a length into third after not really getting the run of the race.

Avarice missed the summer but didn’t perform too badly after a break at a big price last time. It will be interesting to see if money comes.

5.00 Newcastle: Lindwall

He should justify short odds here.

Lindwall looked very much in need of a step-up to two miles when I watched him win at Chelmsford last week and needed the full Luke Morris drive to get him home. He won narrowly but was well on top at the finish.

Everything about Newcastle would seem to suit him better than the tight Essex track, while there really doesn’t look to be anything like as progressive in this field.