Horse racing tips for Thursday: Dave Nevison has three fancies for Chelmsford

I will be working alongside Chris Dixon for another marathon shift at Chelmsford on Thursday evening so I am hoping the ‘Horsewatcher’ might agree with my views on these three.

This expensive purchase would not have been expected to be running off 58 in handicaps, but he gave notice on his debut for Robert Cowell last time that he might be set to improve from this mark in the coming weeks.

The horse who beat him last time out, Nellie French, is an experienced and in-form sprinter who has gone in again since, so the form looks strong for this grade.

Manumission definitely looks as though he wants to go up in trip, but it may be a smart move by Cowell to try and gain experience and hopefully win over five furlongs before stepping him up. There look to be few in this heat who have his potential.

This very lightly-raced horse has definitely shown himself effective on Fibresand on his latest two starts and arrives here on a hat trick.

He won by a street last time and, even allowing for Southwell distances sometimes being exaggerated, he is clearly in rich form. His previous win was by a much narrower margin but that came in what has subsequently proved a very strong event for a 0-50 Classified, with two subsequent winners already.

I am hopeful his improvement is general rather than confined to Southwell, as there is nothing in this event in the same form. Stall 9 might not be ideal but, given he is more than likely to miss the break and come from off the pace, it might not be much of a concern.

James Tate has found the perfect opening for this useful mare, who put up an excellent effort (and in front of the re-opposing Amber Island) at Wolverhampton last time.

Shimmering Dawn has peaked at a level of form just below Listed and Group Three level, so she is fairly difficult to place but this conditions race is just right. Her form figures away from the high-grade races read 242112, so she is most consistent.

From her draw, she should be able to just sit off the pace-setting Quickstep Lady and enjoy the perfect tow into the race.

A strong market move for the ex-French Marly would be a concern on her UK debut, but she has been operating off a level seven pounds lower than Shimmering Dawn and it might be asking a lot to improve that much after a break.