December Gold Cup: three to note and a verdict

Déjà vu? 

The Nyetimber December Gold Cup can often lend that impression given the familiar names who have thrived at Cheltenham over intermediate distances in recent years regularly featuring in repeat renewals.

The likes of Village Vic, Frodon and Midnight Shadow have run well more than once in this race in the past decade, while the record of previous winners contesting this race again this century reads two from nine (22 per cent, +£16, 2.17 A/E) with two further runners hitting the places. 

Despite being run on the speedier Old Course, the Paddy Power Gold Cup the previous month is an often pivotal guide – indeed, only two December Gold Cup winners in the last decade did not run in the Paddy Power Gold Cup the month before. Since 2015, 13 of the 24 runners to have finished in the first five in the Paddy Power Gold Cup before coming here next reached the first five again (54 per cent), with Frodon (2018), Warthog (2019) and Fugitif (2023) all winning. Coole Cody would have boosted those figures but for falling two from home in the 2021 race, while Starchitect was also in control back in 2017 before cruelly suffering an injury near the finish. 

The conundrum for punters is to stick with this tried-and-tested but potentially well found route, or to go for something else that has taken an alternative path that may not be as well accounted for by the market. 

Looking at the 14 confirmations for this year's race - and the lack of left-field options and general depth - sticking with the more conventional runner profile might be the prudent choice and, with that in mind, here are three to note.

Trainer: Dan Skelton Odds: 13/2 

He heads the ante-post betting lists at 13/2 with Fugitif and that’s not a surprise in some ways, although Fugitif is much more proven over this kind of test. However, Madara is 10lb lower in the handicap than that rival and he has the biggest scope for improvement. 

He enjoyed a good campaign last year, winning a decent race at this meeting before a memorable success at the Dublin Racing Festival, though he finished with an underwhelming effort in the Grand Annual when sent off at just 11/2 for that Cheltenham Festival handicap.

Former trainer Sophie Leech pondered stepping up to two and a half miles last season and Madara contested this intermediate distance for the first time in Britain in the Paddy Power Gold Cup last time on stable debut for Dan Skelton. The five-year-old was an unfancied 16/1 chance in what the trainer said was a fact-finding mission, but he would have been pleased to pick up £7,950 for fourth and more so with the way Madara finished. Perhaps things unravelled nicely for him under a patient ride but he’s unexposed over this trip and he's been dropped 1lb by the handicapper to boot. He’s fared best under prominent tactics over two miles, and that set-up over this newer trip could bring about more improvement. 

Trainer: Richard Hobson Odds: 13/2

Fugitif is solid and his profile as a previous winner (see above) makes additional appeal. 

He’s not getting any younger at the age of nine - just one horse that age or older has won this race since 1997, with only four more placed from 81 qualifiers – but he is an absolute standing dish in this set-up and he’s readily expected to improve from his run in the Paddy Power Gold Cup last time. 

Unlike Madara, who is proven at two miles, Fugitif looked to struggle with the early pace before coming good later in the race and he put in several scruffy leaps that impeded his momentum on the way round. Last time, his Race iQ Jump Index score was 7.6 out of 10 – this is notably lower than the 8.6 he posted in last year’s Paddy Power and the 9.1 he registered in his 2023 December Gold Cup win. 

The fact that his stable runners perhaps needed the outing at the time of his latest run -  as well as his imposing physical make-up – suggest a step forward seems fairly likely and he’s now 1lb lower than his mark when winning this last year. 

Trainer: Alan King Odds: 12/1

He has 10 lengths to find with Fugitif after finishing fourth in this race last year, but he was out of the weights and a big price on that occasion and he's expected to get closer this time.

He goes well fresh and won nicely on his reappearance last time at Chepstow back in October, from Ga Law (8/1 for this race) in second and Il Ridoto (8/1 too) in fifth. Grandeur D’Ame was well placed in what was a dash for the line (112 per cent finishing speed), but the emphasis on speed probably wasn’t an ideal set-up for him at that trip and he did jump down the long straight really well. 

Grandeur D’Ame went to the December Gold Cup last year less than a month after winning by 25 lengths at Wetherby on his previous run, but he’s been left out since October this time to be fresh for this and a different preparation may see a better outcome at the weekend. 

He's also a lightly-raced eight-year-old and he could be a better model this time, too. Trainer Alan King called him a “notoriously poor work horse” but then memorably told Sky Sports Racing after the Chepstow win that he’s been “bloody flying” this year, so there’s a more than a chance he has more to offer and he’s right down at the bottom of the weights for this. 

Madara and Fugitif dominate the market at the moment and it’s easy to see why, though the fact they’re the same price makes it hard to differentiate between them given they're closely matched on their latest encounter. Madara has the scope for more improvement but Fugitif is much more proven in this set-up with more of the type of profile you’d traditionally want for this race. We know he can jump much better, too, and less early speed this time could also aid his cause further.

Grandeur D’Ame has a lot to do on the book but his return win looks quite eye-catching and his trainer has stated that this race has been the target since then. He’s 12/1 and that’s an each-way price I can get on side with.