Guinness Kerry National: five key runners and an 18-1 tip

The Jump season proper may only be in its infancy, but it is never too early for a “National”. And with €118,000 prize money up for grabs, the Guinness Kerry National at Listowel on Wednesday (4.23) has predictably attracted a hugely competitive 18-runner field.

There are reserves ready to sneak in, too, and they include Busselton, winner of the 3m contest in 2022 but among those ran ragged by front-running Flooring Porter 12 months ago.

Flooring Porter lined up as a two-time Stayers’ Hurdle winner and exploited what was clearly a generous mark of 149.

His connections hoped to run him in the Grand National at Aintree later in the season but, sadly, he’s since been on the sidelines owing to a setback.

The Kerry National can have a bearing on what happens at Aintree, with its roll of honour including Montys Pass, who famously pulled off the double in the 2002-2003 season.

Here are the five who make most appeal. 

Trainer: Paul Nolan. RaceiQ Jump Index: 6.5. Odds: 18-1. 

Sandor Clegane is certainly not as tough as the warrior he is named after in Game Of Thrones. He's often flattered to deceive, especially last season when connections ditched chasing and explored an open looking division for staying hurdlers.

He also came up short when back over fences in a beginners’ chase at the Galway Festival on August 1, but he shaped OK after 102 days off on a track that was probably never going to suit him given the long run to the finish after the final fence.

This course seems more likely to suit and his efforts in top staying novice chases in the spring of 2024 suggest he could be thrown in switched to the handicap ranks running off a mark of 143.

The eight-year-old finished about ten lengths fourth to Fact To File in the Brown Advisory before finishing eight lengths fourth to Spillane’s Tower at Punchestown. In the latter race, he finished half a length behind Three Card Brag (more of him later) and is now 2lb better off.

You can argue he is 9lb better off, as Paul Nolan has snapped up in-form 7lb conditional Eoin Staples to ride. Staples will not lack for confidence as he has landed five of the past 12 races he has ridden in.

Moreover, connections are ditching the tongue-tie and blinkers that Sandor Clegane is usually equipped with. Removing headgear can be as galvanising as putting it on in the first place, and he didn’t wear it up until last season, when it clearly did not help him finish any quicker. 

Trainer: Willie Mullins. RaceiQ Jump Index: 7.8. Odds: 11-2. 

Willie Mullins has had plenty of misfortune in this race since last landing it in 2021, including being responsible for the runner-up on three occasions. 

His No 1 hope this time looks this unexposed improver, who steps up in trip on what is his handicap debut. He ran only three times over hurdles and has had four runs over fences since May, impressing with his efficient jumping in recent starts after unseating his rider early on when making his chasing bow. 

RaceiQ have awarded him a Jump Index score of 7.8 out of 10, better than anything else in the field, for all he’s earned that mark in races that will have had less hustle and bustle than this one. 

His second to Anyway, previously runner-up to Caldwell Potter at the Cheltenham Festival, under a 7lb claimer in mid-June gave us an early clue as to his ability, and he was an easy all-the-way winner at Wexford last time. 

The handicapper has perhaps been lenient in leaving him on the same mark of 137, while the trip could also unlock more improvement, given he got 3m fine when a creditable fourth in a Listed hurdle at Perth in late April. 

Trainer: Gordon Elliott. RaceiQ Jump Index: 7.5. Odds: 7-1. 

He did well to finish eighth in the Galway Plate last time given he got hampered at the start (directly behind a rival reluctant to race) and was well adrift before the field had even jumped a fence. 

He had previously made a bold bid in the Grand National before being betrayed by a lack of stamina, and he’s well handicapped to judge by the rivals he conquered in his 3m novice chase win at Navan in January. 

My one niggle is that Gordon Elliott’s past 34 runners over Jumps in Ireland have all been beaten, stretching back to August 29, and ten of those have been 4-1 or shorter. It’s not the time of the season to be getting too hung up about such a lean patch – we are talking about plenty of lower profile horses - but you can hardly view it as a positive. 

Trainer: Joseph O’Brien. RaceiQ Jump Index: 6.3. Odds: 10-1. 

San Salvador seems unlikely to ever pinch lengths out of his rivals with his jumping (RaceiQ rate Duffle Coat, 6.2, only inferior in that department here) but if he can keep mistakes to a minimum then this versatile performer should be on the premises. 

Bred by the trainer’s mum, Anne-Marie O’Brien, San Salvador has the distinction of having won on the Flat, over hurdles and over fences, plus has a bumper win to his name and a victory on the all-weather. 

The nine-year-old is probably at his most potent on the level – still rated 103 in that sphere – but he again hinted he had a big chasing pot in him when a close fourth in the Galway Plate last time. He came home strongly after having to switch from the inside of the track to the outside of it, indicating this extra furlong or so would be no bother to him. 

He’s been left on the same mark and, having won on his past two visits to this track, has plenty going for him. Expect JJ Slevin to stalk before trying to pounce in the latter stages. 

Trainer: Gavin Cromwell. RaceiQ Jump Index: 6.6. Odds: 16-1. 

The eight-year-old was having only his second start for the Gavin Cromwell yard when runner-up to Jagwar in the TrustATrader Plate at Cheltenham in March. 

He carried a lot of stable confidence and was unlucky to bump into a similarly well-handicapped rival that day. He might have been feeling the effects of that race when failing to cash in on a lower hurdling mark at the Punchestown Festival next time, for all he ran creditably, and I’m not sure we saw the best of him in the Galway Plate, when he never figured. 

Thecompanysergeant is only 2lb higher in the ratings than at Cheltenham and moving up in trip may also suit, as there’s plentu of stamina in his pedigree. Keith Donoghue is also on his back for the first time, which has to be another plus.