Goodwood day one: Page Fuller of RaceiQ shares her best bets

Clashes between generations will be a popular theme at Goodwood this week and on the first day of the Festival, three-year-old Jonquil is likely to be a popular choice to deny Kinross a third Lennox Stakes (2.30). However, I think it’s the horse that beat Kinross last time out in the John O’Gaunt Stakes that looks the best value.

TEN BOB TONY was very game in holding off the late challenge of Kinross, and I think his run style is tailor made for the swinging downhill seven furlongs at Goodwood.

The historical metrics paint an interesting picture as to which sort of horses win races at Goodwood compared to other tracks. Across all turf tracks in Britain and Ireland 23% of races over seven furlongs were won by the horse that recorded the highest Top Speed of the race. At Goodwood over the same trip only 11% of winners recorded the quickest Top Speed.

That information points to the idea that horses with a burst of acceleration coming from off the pace are not suited to Goodwood and that the track instead favours horses that travel strongly and are ridden closer to the pace - as Ten Bob Tony did very effectively in victory last time.

He recorded his Top Speed of 39.2 mph in the first furlong, and despite Kinross completing the final two furlongs nearly half a second quicker than him, he’d done enough near the head of affairs to cling on at the line.

In the next race, the Goodwood Cup (3:05), two Aidan O’Brien youngsters are battling to cement themselves as the next champion stayer, and I think SCANDINAVIA is in prime position to take advantage of his weight allowance for being a three-year-old.

His win time at Navan on seasonal debut earned a very impressive Time Index rating of 9.8 out of 10, and you can forgive his defeat at Ascot, as the tactics didn’t play out for him. He was caught wide and flat footed as they turned into the straight, but was quickest of the race through the final furlong.

At Newmarket last time, Ryan made better use of his stamina, and he galloped his rivals into the ground. He was quickest of the field from the stalls, taking 2.48 seconds to reach 20mph, which put him in the prime position to dictate from the front. He set even fractions, and his rivals folded tamely in behind, each of them completing the final furlong notably slower than Scandinavia despite being more patiently ridden.

The way he burnt his rivals off over one mile and five furlongs there was very impressive and suggests he could take the step up to two miles here in his stride.