Four hot festive favourites: will they be Christmas stars or turkeys?

There is a glut of top-class Jump racing over the days ahead, with much of it on Racing TV. Some big reputations will be put on the line, and I’ve taken a look at four key runners. 

Paul Townend doesn’t get much wrong, but I’m sure if you asked him would he ride this highly regarded juvenile differently if able to rerun his Fairyhouse debut again, he’d certainly want to do so. 

Willy De Houelleundoubtedly compromised his chance by racing too freely through the early stages and as a result had nothing in reserve to fend off the patiently ridden Naturally Nimble. 

He also forfeited ground by jumping out to his left on this right-handed track so is bound to be suited by this switch to a left handed track. 

The Fairyhouse race also came at a time when Willie Mullins’ horses were often in need of their first run. 

Sadly, it’s commonplace now for many on social media to revel in an expensive purchase failing to deliver on their first start, but this can work in favour of more considered punters. 

At the time of writing, he’s a best-priced 6/4, and that to me seems a very fair price. He arrived from France with a huge reputation and with feasible reasons for forgiving (if you can’t forgive at Christmas when can you?) a moderate performance last time he surely has an outstanding chance of landing this. 

It’s fair to say I was a fan of this gorgeous horse from very early on, and the pain of a nice ante-post bet in the Albert Bartlett being snatched away still gnaws. 

I was confident that, given his pinpoint accurate jumping of hurdles, he would make up into an even better chaser. He duly ran out an impressive winner on his chase debut at Newbury. Yet, to my eye there are a few reasons to be concerned as to whether this test will suit. 

On several occasions at Newbury he delivered some exceptionally bold jumping efforts, and don’t get me wrong I’m a as big a fan as any of seeing such efforts, however when they don’t come in sync with what jockey Ben Jones was wanting it can spell trouble. 

It could be that the Newbury run removed the freshness that abundance of zest and if that’s the case his jumping should be an asset, but it has to be noted that Ben Jones has to my mind looked short of confidence in the last couple of weeks – I felt the slapping down the shoulder as Personal Ambition at Ascot was the actions of a rider desperate to find a stride. 

He’s a talented rider but this will be his toughest test to date. 

Finally, I struggle to believe that going right-handed will suit. He went left at a number of fences at Ascot and hung quite dramatically to his left on the run-in. 

Trainer Ben Pauling suggested that it wasn’t anything to be concerned about and that as a son of Ask he has a quirk and can often hang in both directions. He of course knows him best but I’ve watched every run in great detail and I have to confess I can’t find a single example of him hanging or jumping to his right. 

He could well end up in the car park if hanging and jumping and hanging left on this sharp right-handed track. 

The opposition isn’t the deepest but Masaccio was just two-lengths behind at Newbury, he also has proven form at this track. It pains me to desert a horse for who I have such affection but he has plenty against him on this occasion. 

The Christmas Hurdle see’s the long-awaited return of last year’s winner, Constitution Hill. Yes that’s right he’s only been off the track for a year– not the three years some would have you believe. 

Of course, he has had a few setbacks, with a bout of colic this summer following on from a virus that required him, and plenty of other Seven Barrows inmates, to miss the Cheltenham Festival. 

His intended return in the Fighting Fifth at Newcastle also had to be shelved after he was found to be lame following what was by his standards a moderate racecourse gallop. 

I still retain the faith that this generational talent will bounce back to his best this season, though it is a of course entirely feasible that he will take one, maybe even two runs, to hit peak form. 

This Christmas Hurdle will also provide him with a stern test in the form of Willie Mullin’s top-class mare Lossiemouth. 

She went unbeaten last season where her wins included the International Hurdle and the Mares’ Hurdle both at Cheltenham. 

She then returned this season to win the Hatton’s Grace Hurdle in scintillating style. She’s clearly talented but is still rated 15lb inferior to Constitution Hill. 

Race fitness and the 7lb mares’ allowance will aide her cause but I’m firmly of the opinion that Constitution Hill is not only the better horse, but the faster horse too. Kempton is a niche track and his proven form around here gives me confidence that he will make the perfect Christmas return. 

There can be no denying he was impressive in the John Durkan on his seasonal return in what was his first foray into open company. 

I opposed him on that occasion as I felt his official rating of 162 gave him plenty to find with the 179-rated Galopin Des Champs and more crucially with course specialist Fastorslow, with a rating of 171. 

Of course, I must concede that I got it wrong. 

However, through most of the race I felt I’d made the right call. Fact To File’s jumping lacked the fluency of both aforementioned rivals and he conceded ground at a number of them. 

It’s therefore to his enormous credit that he was able to arrive on the scene full of running, and he showed a smart turn of foot to quicken up down to the last before finding just enough to repel the strong finish of Spillane’s Tower. 

There is little to question about him and my opposition is less about a negative view of his chance and more about a positive view as to the chance of reigning champion, Galopin Des Champs. 

His effort in the John Durkan last month was vastly improved on his performance from 12 months earlier, he’s still only eight years of age and as such it’s far from likely that his immense powers will be waning just yet. 

He’s a proven stayer over this trip, has won his past five starts at Leopardstown, and to my mind still sets the standard and should be favourite to win this race again. Fact To File will have to improve again to beat him a second time.