Dave Nevison, Martin Dixon, Page Fuller, Alex Scott and Tom Thurgood share a selection each for the action across Newmarket and York on Saturday, all live on Racing TV. For more top tips for Saturday, click here.
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1.50 Newmarket: Endorsement
Best odds: 5-2.
Tipster: Tom Thurgood.
2.05 York: Erzindjan
Best odds: 3-1.
Tipster: Page Fuller and Dave Nevison.
Page Fuller says: Erzindjan may have been winless for some time, but his effort in defeat in the Cambridgeshire last month suggested that he’s not too far away from getting his head back in front. The 1m2f handicap today at York at 2.05 looks just the place for him to do so.
The luck of the draw was not with him last time. He was drawn in stall 23, and unfortunately for him, all of the pace was drawn with those in the low numbers.
It wouldn’t have taken long for his supporters to realise what was about to happen, as those racing up the far side set far stronger fractions than the group he was in on the near side. It meant that even by the end of the first furlong, he was 0.93 seconds behind Boiling Point, the eventual winner.
Given the circumstances, his performance was pretty eyecatching, as even with two furlongs to run, he still had 17 places to make up. He finished first in his group and completed the final three furlongs faster than any other horse in the race. It was 0.78 seconds faster than Boiling Point, but unfortunately, the ground he forfeited in the first furlong proved too much to claw back.
The draw will not be against him today, however, as his position in stall six gives its occupants a +0.24 length advantage on their rivals, according to our data. It might not be the most advantageous, but for context, Tony Montana drawn on the wide outside is in a stall that is normally at a disadvantage of -0.62 lengths.
Up in distance by another furlong as well, Tom Marquand should be well positioned to tuck him neatly on to the rail on the first bend, and then be in the prime position to pounce at the line.
3.00 Newmarket: Distant Storm
Best odds: 5-2.
Tipster: Alex Scott.
Last seen winning the Tattersalls Stakes by almost five lengths over the Dewhurst course and distance, this beautifully-bred son of Night Of Thunder, out of the only foal produced by the great George Washington has every chance of taking his tally at HQ to three from three.
A narrow winner of a very strong maiden on the July Course first time out, he was then sent to York for the Acomb Stakes, but the writing was on the wall early as he failed to settle. He ultimately did well to finish third.
He was much more polished when winning here last time out and, while this is tougher, he rates a strong contender. Appleby has won this three times in the past six years.
3.15 York: Northern Ticker
Best odds: 7-1.
Tipster: Martin Dixon.
Northern Ticker did this column a favour at the Sky Bet Ebor Festival and although he is vying for favouritism here, I still believe there is plenty of mileage in his handicap mark.
He ran at Ayr last time out and travelled through the race like he was still in good form, and well handicapped. Unfortunately, he was on the wrong part of the track, and in the wrong group, on that occasion.
The selection runs off a 2lb lower mark now and returns to a sounder surface plus the scene of his finest hour over course and distance in August.
Although this is a typically competitive handicap, most of his opposition are quite exposed compared to him, and I like his draw in stall seven because Hammer The Hammer is drawn next door, and that rival should give him a good tow into the race.
3.40 Newmarket: Beylerbeyi
Best odds: 8-1.
Tipster: Dave Nevison.
Willie Mullins and other Irish jumps trainers are going to play a massive part in this year's Club Godolphin Cesarewitch Handicap, which is regularly the case these days.
However, I do believe the home contingent might see them off this time, and Ian Williams, probably our best trainer of a staying handicapper, may be the one to land the prize.
Beylerbeyi is undoubtedly well handicapped running off a 3lb lower mark than last time out at Newbury. He was beaten into third that day but definitely should have won, and was given far too much to do in the straight.
Billy Loughnane rides on Saturday and Williams has applied the hood for the first time on Beylerbeyi (probably to help the horse relax on his way to the start), which I think is a positive move.
Given the trainers record in this type of race, I am happy with the decision to step him up in trip by half a mile, and if it brings out further improvement, the selection should go well.
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