Five horses who caught the eye in defeat over the weekend

By Andy Stephens
Last Updated: Sun 3 Nov 2024
Andy Stephens advised backing Breeders' Cup Classic winner Sierra Leone at 12-1 over the weekend and, in between, kept a close eye on all the action over Jumps.  Armed with the RaceiQ data, he suggests five horses to keep a close eye on over the weeks ahead.
Helvic Dream remains capable of winning a good prize over hurdles (focusoracing.com)

1 HELVIC DREAM 

Second in the Eventsec Handicap Hurdle at Down Royal
This smart performer on the Flat continues to underachieve over hurdles but it’s surely only a matter of time before everything clicks for him. 
Rated 100 on the level, this was his third time he has come up short in a handicap off a mark in the mid 120s. 
However, there were mitigating circumstances on this occasion. 
He was up against an unexposed and almost certainly well-handicapped winner in four-year-old Kala Conti (one of eight winners at the two-day meeting for Gordon Elliott) and the good to yielding ground probably wasn’t ideal for a horse whose best form on the level has been when the mud is flying. 
His jumping is satisfactory (the RaceiQ data had him gaining 4.39 lengths, although others around him were better) and his engine is apparent in the way he motors along. 
There’s a decent prize in him when he gets in a race where he can get buried away in a big field and they go an end-to-end gallop. It will be a surprise if his connections do not entertain the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury in February. 

2 KATEIRA 

Third in the bet365 Hurdle (Registered As The West Yorkshire Hurdle) at Wetherby on Saturday
Odds-on backers had their fingers burnt on Kateira as she could finish only third of the four runners in this Grade Two contest. Her stamina for 3m was a question mark beforehand but it was a blunder two out that cost her dear, rather than a lack of staying power. 
She had jumped like a dream up until that point and looked to have all the bases covered – the RaceiQ data reveals she was fastest from A to B over each of the first nine flights – but her bungle knocked her back to last and cost her crucial momentum in a slow-run race that was finally winding up.
She lost 4.27mph and her speed recovery time was 2.26sec. The winner lost only 2.64mph and his recovery time was 0.4sec. It was simply wrong mistake at the wrong time.
By the time Kateira got going again, the race had got away from her, but she was gaining again at the finish, even though Harry Skelton basically let her come home in her own time. Her final furlong was just a smidgeon slower than the winner, Beacon Edge, who was driven right out. 
This was a substandard renewal of this race but I’m pretty sure Kateira, having her first run since winning at the Grand National meeting in April, would have been a tidy winner but for her error. She will have a stack of options, including in handicaps, and will be worth another go at 3m another day, for all that this race was more about speed than stamina. 
Kateira jumped superbly until two out (focusonracing.com)

3 JUMPING JET 

Sixth in the Paddy Power Cork Grand National Handicap Chase at Cork on Sunday
This mare had shaped encouragingly on her return at Galway just a week earlier and went off at 13-2 to give Gordon Elliott a third Cork National winner since 2018. 
However, her backers knew their fate some way out as she struggled to get into contention after making a litany of small errors under 7lb claimer Carl Millar. 
They certainly accumulated, with RaceiQ revealing she lost almost 18 lengths on the opposition with her leaping. Contrast that to the winner, Spaghum, who edged home thanks to gaining 9.43 lengths. 
It is not the first time that Jumping Jet has been held back by her jumping but, even by her standards, this was a sloppy display. Perhaps the race came a bit quick, or she found the good going a bit lively (she’s been a non-runner on yielding in the past because that was not considered deep enough). Maybe it was a combination of the two. 
Given how poorly Jumping Jet got from A to B, she did well to be beaten only an aggregate of 11 lengths. Last season’s Ulster National winner is likely to be eased in the ratings and is worth keeping in mind for other long-distance events when there is more give in the ground. 

4 FLEGMATIK 

Eighth in the Sodexo Live! Gold Cup Handicap Chase at Ascot on Saturday
Look out for Flegmatik back at Kempton
The Dan Skelton-trained nine-year-old was again minus his usual cheekpieces and, like at Chepstow last month, never budged out of rear under claimer Tristan Durrell. 
He ended up being beaten an aggregate of 17 lengths behind Chianti Classico, the plucky all-the-way winner, but he was considerately handled and the handicapper is likely to cut him some more slack. 
Flegmatik is already 6lb lower in the ratings (139) than he was in the spring and it would be no surprise if he slips further this week – perhaps to the same mark (137) that he won off at Kempton last January, when he was never far off the pace and ironically won at the main expense of Chianti Classico. 
Flegmatik is in his element at Kempton, with three wins and three places there from eight visits. Don’t hesitate to back him when he returns there, especially if the headgear is back on. 

5 IRON BRIDGE 

Third in the Graham, Pam & Jo Birthday Celebration Cumberland Handicap Chase at Carlisle on Sunday
This Jonjo O’Neill-trained eight-year-old is all about stamina and, carrying the silks of the late Trevor Hemmings, the Grand National is almost certainly an ambition. 
He’s going to need to go up the ratings to have a chance of making the cut at Aintree, but this comeback run at Carlisle was encouraging, as he stuck on to be a four-length third despite looking in need of the run and having 12st 1lb to hump. 
He's entered in the Coral Gold Cup at Newbury on November 30, and it will be a case of the softer the better for him should he line up there. 
The Welsh National would probably play more to his strengths, though, and he beat all bar mud monster Nassalam in that last season off a rating of 142. 
That gruelling contest seemed to leave a mark for the rest of his campaign but, now 6lb lower, he is loitering on a very handy mark. 
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