Breeders’ Cup Classic: runner-by-runner guide and 11-1 tip

The big hope of Japan has been beaten only once in seven starts, when losing out in a three-way photo for the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs in early May. The print showed he had been beaten a nose, and the same, behind Mystik Dan and Sierra Leone after the most frantic of finishes. 

It was a story of what might have been, as Forever Young fluffed the start and got involved in a bumping match with Sierra Leone for much of the home straight. His jockey, Ryusei Sakai, looked scruffy, at best, too, in those dramatic final stages. 

Forever Young had earlier won the Saudi Derby over a mile, getting up in the final stride, plus the UAE Derby, and he limbered up for his return to America with victory in the Japan Dirt Classic in his native country this month. He had to be quite hard ridden to get the job done in the latter, although the bay colt had been off for five months and perhaps was just idling. 

This globetrotter is clearly a tough individual well served by ten furlongs and the dirt, but he looks more of a bruiser than a cruiser and could find himself shuffled back from stall 1. And if that’s the case, he’s probably going to need something of a pace collapse to hit the jackpot. 

Like his sire, Curlin, the 2007 Classic winner, he’s a chestnut. And the similarities don’t end there. 

Curlin won the Jockey Club Gold Cup at Saratoga beforehand, having previously been beaten at Monmouth Park. Highland Falls also won the Jockey Club Gold Cup last time after a reverse at Monmouth. 

That breakthrough Grade One victory last time showed Highland Falls in a new light as he stayed on well to beat Pyrenees by four lengths, with Tapit Trice, who had previously given him a drubbing at Monmouth, further behind in fourth. Confused? You will be. This is what can happen on dirt, when overdoing or underdoing things can lead to big swings of fortune. 

I fancy Brad Cox’s four-year-old will confirm his superiority over that pair, if nothing else, provided he is able to hold a prominent position from his low gate. It could be he is peaking at just the right time but, on balance, it will be a little disappointing if he is good enough. 

The heart says yes, the head says no. 

Bar his blip in the 2000 Guineas, the City Of Story has been a series of triumphant chapters and in terms of raw speed and ability, it’s doubtful that anything in this field can touch him. But it’s not that straightforward. 

Can he get down and dirty? With the emphasis on the dirt(y). Nobody knows. 

The best most of us can do is make a calculated guess as to how he will cope with a surface most horses either love or loathe (think of it as equine marmite), although my colleague Angus McNae did an excellent job at putting the jigsaw together in a special Verdict on the Derby winner this week. At the risk of spoiling your enjoyment, Angus considered all the evidence and concluded that the surface wouldn’t be for him. 

I certainly could not entertain backing City Of Troy at 7-4 to beat hardened dirt specialists, having never previously run on the surface, and that was even before I’d watched what Angus had to say. It’s worth remembering, too, that Plan A, at the start of the year, had been a dirt race beforehand. A workout at Southwell, instead, was anything but like for like, and his gentle jogs on the track this week tell us little, other than he looks well. 

Even if he loves the dirt, there’s also his long campaign to consider. Those social media clips of him burning up the gallops at Ballydoyle in April, put out by Coolmore, serve as a reminder that he’s been on the go for some time, going backwards and forwards to England five times along the way. And now he’s landed in America. 

It was out of character to see him get sweaty before a gentle workout on Wednesday, given that he has usually looked a sea of calm at the races. Is he thinking about things, getting edgy, or is it me that is over-thinking? Aidan O’Brien brushed it aside (such a notion, not the sweat). 

Most of us are admirers of City Of Troy and Ryan Moore (0/25 on dirt in the USA – thanks to Rachel Candelora for that stat), but there’s no room for sentiment in betting. I’ll probably go the whole hog and lay him to finish out of the frame. 

The four-year-old is among the big-priced outsiders and it’s easy to see why, given he’s won only two of his 12 races and had his limitations exposed. 

Those who fancy a shock outcome, though, will be encouraged that his victories have come at Del Mar, and that he was unfancied when landing the Pacific Classic Stakes over course and distance at the start of September. He got on top in the closing stages that day, having never been too far away. 

That was a win-and-you-are-in contest, so it’s hardly surprising his connections are seeking a bit of this $7 million dollar pie. Even if it’s only a few crumbs. 

There’s never been a horse older than five to win the Classic, so this lad, in common with Next and Ushba Tesoro, is seeking to create history. 

However, you need a vivid imagination to believe he will rewrite the record books. Habitually held up, he was never a threat when seventh in last year’s edition of this race, having been an anonymous eighth in the Dirt Mile 12 months before. 

Not that his owners, the Peacock Family, can grumble too much. Their pride and joy has scooped almost £10 million in prize money, mainly thanks to his last-gasp success in the Saudi Cup in late February, where he collared Ushba Tesoro in the final strides. He had been beaten a neck in the Pegasus World Cup before that. 

A strong gallop and the long straight of the King Abdulaziz Racecourse provided something of a perfect storm for Senor Buscador in the Saudi Cup, but Del Mar, with its short straight, provides an unwelcome contrast. He is one win from five starts at the track and ran a stinker at Santa Anita last time. Perhaps that Saudi Cup success has left a mark. 

This Japanese challenger finished sixth in the last year's Kentucky Derby after fluffing the start before returning to America to beat all bar White Abarrio in last year’s Classic at Santa Anita Park. 

Those efforts suggested he would be a force this year, but he’s been underwhelming, finishing fifth to Senor Buscador in the Saudi Cup before being a distant sixth in the Dubai World Cup. 

He fared little better back on home soil at Funabashi in late September after a six-month break, fading to be fifth in the Nippon TV Hai Stakes after being up with the early pace. He finished well adrift of Ushba Tesoro. 

First-time blinkers are now summoned but he looks a horse in reverse gear and it’s easy enough to look elsewhere. 

Who is the first Japanese horse you think of? Deep Impact? Almond Eye? Equinox? 

I don’t imagine Ushba Tesoro getting many mentions, but he’s the highest-earning Japanese horse in history – at least in terms of prize-money – as he’s scooped almost £13 million. 

That massive pot has been down to him landing the 2023 Dubai World Cup, plus being runner-up in this year’s edition as well as the Saudi Cup. 

He's the oldest horse in the line-up but clearly retains plenty of ability, even if his habit of starting slowly can compromise him, as it did in last year’s running of this race when he finished fifth, beaten about three lengths with his progress from off the pace flattening out in the closing stages. 

Ushba Tesoro got his eye back in for Saturday by finishing runner-up to William Barrows in the Nippon TV Hai Stakes at Funabashi. It’s asking a lot of him to plunder another jackpot, but I can see the son of Orfevre hoovering up more money for finishing in the frame. 

It’s probably a bit of an exaggeration to suggest Pyrenees has a mountain to climb. But he certainly faces an uphill task. 

He’s has undoubtedly progressed since taking five attempts to get off the mark, but fast forward to the present day and he was put firmly in his place by Highland Falls in the Jockey Club Gold Cup at Saratoga last time, having previously chased home Kingsbarns in the Stephen Foster Stakes (another Grade One) at Churchill Downs. 

Nevertheless, that does make him one of the top older dirt horses in North America. 

If the dirt doesn’t beat City Of Troy, then Fierceness just might. He’s America’s No 1, with everything seemingly in place for a big run. 

He was champion two-year-old in the USA last year, courtesy of his stunning six-length romp in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Santa Anita. He looked every inch like a horse who could come back a year later and land a Classic that day. 

Fierceness has duly gone to the next level this year, landing the Curlin Florida Derby by 13 lengths at Gulfstream, the Jim Dandy Stakes at Saratoga, plus Travers back at Saratoga. 

But there have also been inexplicable blowouts, with a pattern of good run/bad run emerging. He got turned over at 1-5 at Gulfstream in early February and completely fluffed his lines when favourite for the Kentucky Derby, folding tamely in the straight to trail home 15th. He did break awkwardly that day, but it was a puzzling surrender. 

Fierceness has bounced back with successive wins at Saratoga, each time with Sierra Leone, beaten a nose in the Kentucky Derby, among the supporting cast. He drifted left in the closing stages on the first occasion and was all out to hold off Thorpedo Anna (odds-on to win the Distaff earlier on Saturday’s card) in the later contest. 

It tells us he’s good, but not a monster in the mould of an Arrogate, American Pharoah or Flightline. And then there’s the unknown of which version of Fierceness is going to show up. 

Todd Pletcher’s principal Classic hope is Fierceness but he’s got another contender in Tapit Trice as he seeks a second Classic triumph after the victory of Vino Rosso in 2019. 

One of three greys in Saturday’s race, he was a $1.3 million yearling purchase and has just about recouped that initial outlay, winning half of his dozen races. His career highlight has been his win in the Grade One Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland in the spring of 2023. 

Tapit Trice missed the end of last season and has had a light campaign this term. 

His five-length thumping of Highland Falls in the Monmouth Cup Stakes in late July augured well, but he seemed to recoil when a well-beaten fourth behind that same rival in the Jockey Club Gold Cup at Saragota next time. 

And his latest narrow win in the four-runner Woodward Stakes on muddy going at Belmont hardly suggested he was a Classic winner in waiting.  

If there is one horse nailed on to give his running, then surely it is Sierra Leone. He’s developed into Mr Reliable, albeit his tendency to hang this way and that can add some unwelcome theatre. 

That was most evident in the Kentucky Derby, when his antics at the finish added drama to what was already a pulsating finale. After playing bumper cars with Forever Young, who he meets again, he lost out by a nose. The stewards must have viewed both parties as being guilty because he was allowed to keep his silver medal. 

Sierra Leone’s form beforehand had been solid/strong and he’s continued to finish in the thick of things, armed with new mouth bits and a new jockey. Old tactics of trying to pounce from off the pace have been retained. 

Near-misses in the Belmont Stakes, Jim Dandy Stakes and Travers Stakes will have frustrated his followers – he’s been a short-priced favourite on each occasion – but now might not be the time to give up on him, as he keeps hinting that he’s got a bigger performance in his locker when everything clicks into place. 

No doubt Flavien Prat will again bide his time in rear before inviting Sierra Leone to pick his way through. The stronger the gallop, the better his chance, and we know City Of Troy, for one, is not going to being hanging around. 

Fierceness and Forever Young are much shorter in the betting, but the formbook tells us that Sierra Leone is going to finish in and around them. At double-figure odds, the son of Gun Runner, winner of the Classic in 2017, looks an each-way play. 

Owner Karl Glassman named him after his Dad, Arthur, who has since died at the age of 91. 

The grey has certainly given the Glassman family plenty of fun this year, with the highlight being his victory in the $1 million Whitney Stakes in early August. 

Clock watchers drooled over his time of 1min 48.54sec on the muddy track and the Whitney has proven a great stepping stone to Classic glory, with seven horses doing the double since 1998. White Abarrio became the latest to pull off the Whitney-Classic double 12 months ago. 

Arthur’s Ride went off odds-on for the Jockey Club Gold Cup at Saratoga after that success, but he got tangled up in a bit of a pace battle and wound up getting bruised in a race won by Highland Falls. He ended up being almost ten lengths but is better than that. 

Those prepared to forgive that latest defeat will at least get an inflated price. 

He’s not exactly attracted many column inches in the build-up, but he represents Bob Baffert, who has already trained a record-equalling four Classic winners and will be ridden by a certain Frankie Dettori. 

After that, though, the positives run a little dry. 

Newgate won the Santa Anita Handicap in early March – a Grade One contest despite its misleading title – but then made no impact in the Dubai World Cup. 

And on his latest start, back at Santa Anita, he had to settle for third behind Subsanador, who he had beaten for his earlier triumph, and front-running stablemate National Treasure. 

Last, but not least, another grey. One who revels in dishing out drubbings over longer trips, or what Americans would describe as marathon distances (basically anything over a mile and a half). 

Next has won races by 25 lengths, 23 lengths, 12 lengths, 11 lengths, 10 lengths and 9 lengths, although on several occasions he has been an overwhelming favourite to beat vastly inferior opposition. 

His connections have opted to find low-lying fruit for him since he trailed home last of 14 in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in 2020. He hasn’t contested a Grade One race since that day. 

Next has been spectacular on numerous occasions, but whether he can he mix it with the best dropping back in distance seems doubtful. 

But you cannot blame his connections for rolling the dice. The Classic is a $7 million race, whereas marathon dirt races are typically contested for purses of $200,000 or less. 

All eyes on City Of Troy, an outstanding colt who is tasked with achieving what previous Aidan O’Brien-trained stars have failed to do. As ever, it all comes down to price, and for my money there are too many variables and unticked boxes to entertain backing him at 7-4, for all his brilliance. The one who makes most appeal, for punting purposes, is SIERRA LEONE, who came within a nose of landing the Kentucky Derby and has since continued to run to a high level. He’s admittedly been frustrating to follow but his form puts him firmly in the equation and we can now back him at double-figure odds.