Ebor Meeting: Three Friday fancies chalked up at 40/1 or bigger

It says much for the weakness among the British and Irish sprinters that a six-year-old mare well down the pecking order in Australia is proving a dominant force this summer.

Asfoora put the home team in their place in the King Charles III Stakes at Royal Ascot and would have won the King George at Glorious Goodwood, too, had she not been burdened by a penalty and carried off a straight line in the closing stages.

The six-year-old mare is a worthy favourite – and most likely winner – of the Coolmore Wootton Bassett Nunthorpe Stakes at York on Friday but there’s a new kid on the block in the five-furlong feature in the shape of Frost At Dawn and I’m happy to roll the dice and take a chance on the general 50/1 chance springing a surprise.

This William Knight-trained three-year-old impressed when losing her maiden tag at Chelmsford at the backend of last year and, bred for dirt, her connections had the UAE 1000 Guineas in mind for her at the start of the year. However, she was betrayed by a lack of stamina in her trial races and ended up being switched to turf for sprint contests.

Frost At Dawn was a revelation when dropped to 5f for the first time and blitzing her rivals in the Group Three Nad Al Sheba Turf Sprint in early March. She left her 14 rivals trailing from the outset and won in a course record time of 55.41 seconds. It was a huge effort given her age, especially when you consider such as Blue Point and Ertijaal have been among recent top-class sprinters to have previously graced the track.

She was probably helped by hugging the far rail that day, although she thrashed the others who pursued the same route and the form has some substance with Star Of Mystery, the runner-up, subsequently finishing second in the Al Quoz Sprint and the fourth, Ponntos, going on to shine in France before disappointing in the King George last time (beaten a similar distance as at Meydan).

Frost At Dawn was unable to reproduce that form over an extra furlong in the Al Quoz Sprint but it could be she recoiled after her previous huge shift, or that her busy schedule had simply taken its toll. Maybe it was a bit of both.

The bottom line is that we now have a fast, fresh horse who remains unexposed as a sprinter taking on an average bunch of speedsters who have been taking it in turns to beat each other. The combination of fast ground/a tailwind means a rapid renewal is on the cards and if she can reproduce what she showed in early March then she’s a massive price to hit the jackpot under Jim Crowley, who guided Battaash to glory in the race a couple of times. 

Richard Fahey landed the final race on day one of the meeting and I fancy he might repeat the trick via Golden Mind in the Sky Bet Mile Handicap (5.20).

He has a 13-month absence and top weight to overcome but I never worry about fitness when it comes to the bigger yards and, in any case, it is surely factored into his price because there’s no way he should be trading at such chunky odds making his handicap debut off a rating of 100.

Golden Mind was among Fahey’s best two-year-olds last season, finishing third in the Chesham at Royal Ascot before being beaten under two lengths into fourth behind Haatem in the Vintage Stakes at Glorious Goodwood.

We know all about the winner (now rated 116) and the runner-up, Iberian, subsequently beat Sunway and Rosallion in the Champagne Stakes before going off the tracks (still rated 107). The third home, Mountain Bear, went on to go close in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and is also rated 107.

Golden Mind could well have a class edge dropping in grade. Fast ground is no issue and he’s got a decent draw in stall 3. None of the first four home last year were drawn higher than 7 – fairly typical of the race - and two of the past six winners have jumped from gate 3.

Another to catch the eye at outlandish odds is Mysterious Love, chalked up at 40/1 for the Assured Data Protection EBF Fillies' Handicap (4.10). 

She could not have been right when eased down at Newbury last time, but she’d previously caught the eye when a staying-on sixth in a strong contest at Epsom, having not been disgraced on at Windsor before that. In the latter contest, she finished three lengths behind Al Anound and she now meets that rival, vying for favouritism here, on 8lb better terms. 

Often highly tried and not the easiest to place, it could be that David Menuisier now has a fairly handicapped filly on his hands. She’s also got a favourable draw and, while suited by easier conditions, the ground was fast at Windsor. Most firms are offering at least five places to each-way players.