Andy Stephens hit the target with four of the eight runners (one was not declared) he put up early for the July Festival at Newmarket, including Scandanavia when he was 6-1. Here are his early thoughts about some of Saturday’s action.
2.35 The Curragh: GAIN Railway Stakes
Aidan O’Brien has landed 14 editions of the Railway Stakes, but he’d had a lean run until striking with Henri Matisse 12 months ago and, unusually, his No 1 hope this year looks a filly, in the shape of True Love. All his previous winners have been colts.
The Queen Mary winner will be moving back up in trip on likely easier ground, although she coped well enough with 6f when chasing home Gstaad, the subsequent Coventry winner, at Navan on her penultimate start. She’s the right favourite, but at a shade of odds-on is defensively priced up.
Power Blue finished only a head behind her when they met over 5f at The
Curragh in early May, and, 2lb better off, is entitled to turn the tables.
Like her, he’s also progressed, chasing home Albert Einstein in the Marble Hill Stakes over course and distance on his next start (Ballydoyle seem adamant he’s by some way their best two-year-old) before finishing fifth in the Coventry, when he hit the front two out after racing prominently on the far side (second home in his group) before proving vulnerable.
The Amo Racing-owned colt is clearly a smart juvenile and he may have a bigger performance in him. I’d have him and True Love much closer together in the betting.
2.57 Newbury: Hallgarten And Novum Wines Hackwood Stakes
Selection: Regional at 5-1 with bet365 and Unibet The Ed Bethell-trained gelding low mileage for a seven-year-old sprinter – he’s had only 22 starts - but his connections have been rewarded, as he rarely run a bad race.
One of those runs was in this contest last year, when he made a typically bold bid from the front, only to fade in the closing stages and end up finishing fourth. The trio who beat him were all three-year-olds getting 5lb, but the only representative of the classic generation this time is Ain’t Nobody, who has plenty on his plate.
Regional lines up on the back of two cracking efforts this term, finishing a close third to Believing in the Al Quoz Sprint before filling the same position in the King Charles III Stakes at Royal Ascot.
This is an easier assignment, with several of his possible opponents, including Elite Status, who took the spoils 12 months ago, arriving here with something to prove.
3.30 Newbury: Weatherbys Super Sprint Stakes
Eve Johnson Houghton said on Tuesday she was leaning towards running Havana Hurricane in this, rather than the Molecomb, having described it as a “nice problem to have” 24 hours earlier.
I’ll be amazed if this prize is resisted, given this promising young colt is heavily favoured by the conditions of the race and there is a first prize of £123,000 up for grabs, more than double than that on offer at Goodwood.
Havana Hurricane looks a cut above the bulk of the opposition he will meet after his emphatic victory in the Windsor Castle Stakes at Royal Ascot last time. The time was nothing special but the way he zoomed from nearly last to first in the final three furlongs was most taking.
Of the 23 runners, he was fastest in the third, fourth and final furlong, with his sectionals in the final two furlongs – 11.39sec and 11.93 sec – enabling him to put his stamp on things. By way of comparison, True Love’s final two furlongs when winning the Queen Mary over the same course and distance, earlier in the day, had been 11.44sec and 12.42sec, albeit she went quicker in the earlier stages.
Havana Hurricane was trimmed to 2-1 to 6-4 on Tuesday afternoon, but I can see him going off odds-on.
7.38 Newmarket: Lettergold Handicap
Selection: Equiano Springs
There’s no early betting on this mile contest, for which 25 runners are in the mix. That’s a pity because I imagine Equiano Springs would be languishing among the rank outsiders.
After all, the 11-year-old has offered little in his first two starts this season and has done most of his racing over 6f in recent seasons. Given his age, some will assume he is on the decline, and perhaps that is the case.
However, he’s a horse that generally takes a few runs to find his form each season and his runs at the flat, speedy track at York this campaign was never going to show him to best advantage. He is 0/7 on the Knavesmire, rarely ever threatening to get involved there.
On the plus side, the handicapper has dropped him another 5lb for his York runs, and that means he is now 6lb lower in the ratings than when a close third at this track less than a year ago.
He’s always been in his element at Newmarket, on both the Rowley Mile and July Course, with six wins being secured from 14 races, and Tom Queally has been pencilled in to partner him for the first time in 12 months. He gets on well with Tom Tate’s veteran, winning five times on him from 14 rides on him (five from eight at Newmarket).
The mile trip will be a novelty for Equiano Springs, but he was fully effective over an extended 7f early in his career and in recent starts has hinted that he could do with some extra yardage.
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