A 25-1 ante-post bet for the Lennox Stakes at Goodwood

The HKJC World Pool Lennox Stakes is one of the few big races to have evaded Aidan O’Brien and has only been won by British-trained runners since being first run in 2000. 

O’Brien’s prospects of putting the record straight at Goodwood on July 29 look slim – he has only two ambitious-looking entries and neither are shorter than 33-1 – and the principal hope among the French challengers, Beauvatier, quoted at 16-1, is surely more likely to wait for the Prix Maurice de Gheest a few days later after his taking success over 6f at Deauville this month. 

In short, then, we are looking at the prospect of another “home” win. 

Seven of the 36 still engaged in the race are owned by Wathnan Racing and it’s one of their septet, Paborus, trained by Ed Bethell, who looks worth an ante-post play at 25-1. 

He's progressive, clearly well served by 7f and looks by far Wathnan’s most likely candidate, with their highest-rated/shortest-priced runner, Crimson Advocate, established as a Group One performer over a mile, and such as Kind Of Blue and Flora Of Bermuda being much better known as sprinters. 

Paborus has had only seven starts, signing off last season with a dazzling handicap success off a mark of 90 at Southwell, and beginning this term with a similarly taking display in a minor event at Thirsk, when he had no problem brushing aside a decent yardstick in Mount Athos. 

His winning run was halted when he stepped up in grade for the Criterion Stakes at York last time, although the way that fast-run race unfolded did not show him, or others, to best advantage. Front-running Quinault made all, with everything in the field treading water in the final furlong after a burn-up at the halfway stage. 

It could be that York is not his cup of tea, either, as he hung right-handed there when below-par there at last year’s Ebor meeting. 

Paborus’s RaceiQ Time Index score at Thirsk had been 8.2 out of 10 (meeting average was 7.3) and had been 8.5 when he impressed at Southwell (meeting average 6.5). That tells us something about his raw ability, and on neither occasion was he anything like fully extended. 

Never So Brave heads the ante-post betting at 4-1 after landing the Summer Mile at Ascot last weekend, but he would have to carry a 3lb penalty if lining up just 17 days later and, of course, would be dropping in trip. The gulf in prices between him and Paborus is puzzling, given that the latter would be only 1lb better off if this were a handicap. 

Andrew Balding also suggested that Ascot win, up to a mile, opened up new options for Never So Brave. 

Kinross, winner of the Lennox in 2021 and 2023, plus placed in the 2022 and 2024 renewals, is next in the market at 6-1. 

He’s been a fabulous servant but, at the age of 8, is surely vulnerable, for all that he made a bold bid to concede 5lb to Ten Bob Tony on his return in the John Of Gaunt Stakes at Haydock. 

Ten Bob Tony, quoted at 14-1, was confirming how effective he is when fresh that day. He has since had his powder kept dry, but first time out does seem the time to catch him. 

His stablemate, Noble Champion, in the same ownership, would be interesting at 10-1 after his convincing victory in the Jersey Stakes, but Ed Walker seems to have been cool on the idea of him travelling to the Sussex Downs, maybe influenced by a defeat there in early May. I’d imagine he will run one or the other. 

Last year's superb winner, Audience, is also 10-1, but he's never been the easiest to predict and you cannot easily entertain him after his efforts this year.

Ante-post advice: back Paborus each-way at 25-1 for the Lennox Stakes with Coral or Ladbrokes.