RaceiQ: Royal Ascot review and ante-post tips

Royal Ascot produced some thrilling sport, record-breaking achievements and, unusually, not a single winner who made all the running.

It also possibly yielded the rarest of things: a Derby contender. The horse who could be Epsom material gets his own column whereas this one includes everyone else.

But, first, let’s address the recurring discontent about track bias which led to some trainers, jockeys and owners privately, and some not so privately, making their feelings plain.

There were 17 races on the straight track over the five days that featured 16 runners or more. And there is no escaping the conclusion that those contests were tilted heavily in favour of those who raced down the centre or on the stands’ side.

RaceiQ’s pre-race Draw Advantage metric, based on 13 years of evidence, pointed to as much beforehand, while the TurfTrax’s daily Going Stick readings also forewarned what was on the cards, especially on Friday when the reading on the stands’ side and centre was 8.9, compared to 8.3 on the far side.

Those drawn high were licking their lips, while those drawn low were swimming against the tide.

By the end of the meeting, only four of those 17 races had been won by runners drawn five or lower (23.52%). Meanwhile, eight of the 13 races that drew 22 runners or more were won by horses drawn 22 or higher (61.53%).

More pertinently, disregarding the draw, 15 of the 17 winners (88.23%) raced on the stands’ side or predominately down the centre before edging maybe one way or the other late on.

Another, Great Barrier Reef, raced on the far side for the first half the race, then the centre for the second half. So, you could call it 15 and a half.

The outlier was Victorious, who raced mainly towards the far side before edging to the centre when winning the Queen Mary Stakes from Senorita Bonita, who also bowled along on that part of the track.

It was the big-field handicaps where matters were horribly one sided. There were seven and the winners jumped from gates 33, 16, 25, 30, 30, 31 and 24.

The most pronounced advantage came in the Britannia where the first 12 were drawn 28, 18, 25, 32, 30, 29, 27, 15, 24, 23, 22 and 16. The Buckingham Palace Stakes was similar.

Of the 28 who won or finished in the first four in the handicaps, just three were drawn in single figures and none were lower than stall 8 (10.71%). Between them, the 49 runners who raced in stalls 1-7 could finish no closer than eighth at the meeting.

There are track biases of one kind or another on most racecourses, but mainly when bends are part of the equation or when the ground changes.

Going Stick Readings can be mystifying and not always easy to interpret, but when one part of the track is registering  8.9 and the other 8.3, the frustration of some trainers and owners is understandable.

Punters who focused on those drawn high are unlikely to have any complaints and, going forwards, should almost certainly give those who were drawn low a pass.

Bow Echo 2 Gstaad 0. But while the 2000 Guineas had resembled a sumptuous volley from outside the box, the St James’s Palace Stakes was a desperate scramble with technology needed to confirm the ball had crossed the line.

Plenty went wrong for Bow Echo, yet he still managed to preserve his unbeaten record in Tuesday’s highlight.

George Boughey’s stable star got involved in some scrimmaging shortly after the start; was a bit keen despite a strong early gallop and was obliged to race wide before hitting the front in the penultimate furlong when still on the bridle but with energy reserves having been sapped.

The Night Of Thunder colt had clocked splits of 11.80sec, 11.42sec and 11.68sec for furlongs two, three and four during a frantic first half of the race, plus was also fastest in furlongs six (11.93sec) and seven (11.80sec).

But his petrol gauge was flickering on empty when it mattered most and he signed off with a 12.79sec final furlong. Billy Loughnane said afterwards, in so many words, that Bow Echo had got him out of trouble.

Gstaad was also “very slow” in those final 220 yards, but just less slow than the winner. He clawed back 0.16sec (about a length and quarter) after getting a lovely run up the inside when Puerto Rico, his stablemate, ridden by Christophe Soumillon, conveniently shifted off the rail.

Soumillon was subsequently suspended for eight days by the stewards “for riding his mount in such a way that intended to give an advantage to another horse from the same stable”. Meanwhile, Ryan Moore, the rider of Gstaad, got a three-day ban for careless riding for allowing his mount to edge left-handed without correction in the incident at the start where Bow Echo got hampered.

Bow Echo has stacks of pace and we didn’t see him to best advantage here.

The £1.2 million Visit Qatar Sussex Stakes is likely to be next on his agenda and that contest, with its greater test of speed, seems sure to suit him.  The standard time for a mile on Ascot’s round course is 1min 39.2sec, while at Goodwood it is 1min 36.8sec.

Gstaad will certainly have his work cut out if trying to make it third time lucky against him on the Downs. He’s a much lower strider than Bow Echo (he averaged 2.27 strides per second here compared to his conqueror’s 2.36) and he looks well worth a go over further.

Earlier, Ten Bob Tony had sprung a 50-1 shock in the Queen Anne.

Ridden from off the pace to try and pick up some pieces, he ended up scooping the £453,000 first prize with the help of Opera Ballo going a strong early gallop.

It took him just 26.04sec to complete the first 2f and, to put that in context, Quddwah had taken 28.99sec to do the same when leading a year earlier (about 17 lengths difference).

Kieren Shoemark sat out the back on Ten Bob Tony and, unlike the opposition did not post one “fast” furlong. But the combination were quickest in furlongs five (11.49sec), seven (11.68sec) and eight (12.4 sec) to upstage the principals.

More Thunder also came from off the pace to grab second, having again off the bridle before most.

Opera Ballo hung on for third, beaten just half a length, and might have gone even closer had he just kept a bit more up his sleeve.

He led Ten Bob Tony by 1.2sec after two furlongs (about eight lengths) but gradually had that lead whittled away, with his numbers being a sea of blue (slow) in the second half of the race.

The Sussex Stakes should play to his strengths, but he will face no easy task conceding 8lb to Bow Echo.

Last year’s Sussex winner, Notable Speech, had impressed when landing the Lockinge on his return and travelled strongly in an ideal stalking position before folding tamely in the latter stages.

This stiff mile always looked like being an issue for him – he’s a fast strider and that prompted him tackling top sprints last year – but there looked a bit more to that here. His final furlong of 13.07sec was only sixth fastest.

Bow Echo is a best-priced 7-4 or the Sussex, with Gstaad 4-1 and Opera Ballo 5-1. More Thunder (10-1) and Notable Speech (12-1) are next in the betting.

Mission Central’s last gasp success in the King Charles III Stakes was notable for the fact that his Top Speed was lowest of all the 26 runners and that he was slowest of all in furlongs two and three.

He was languishing in 17th place with two to run but then went into overdrive under an inspired Moore.

The three-year-old was the only runner with a Finishing Speed Percentage higher than Par (102.03%) and should be as effective back over 6f. He’s 3/3 over that trip.

Elsewhere on the opening day, Great Barrier Reef deserves an upgrade for winning the Coventry Stakes from stall 3.

He passed a dozen rivals in the final two furlongs with his “fast” final furlong of 12.31sec standing out from the crowd. Like his brother, Mystery Power, he should stay 7f and the bookmakers make him their early 16-1 favourite for the 2000 Guineas. 

Daiquiri Bay demands a mention after breaking the 1m 6f course record in the closing Copper Horse Stakes. The RaceiQ Time Index was 8.1, when the meeting average was 6.5.

Similarly, Map Of Stars deserves plenty of credit for swooping from off a steady tempo in the Wolferton.

The race yielded the top ten Finishing Speed Percentages of the entire card with all bar Haatem and Adelaide River running quicker than the Par of 103.47%. 

Top Speed:  Getreadytorumble (43.36mph) 21st in the King Charles III 

Fastest 0-20mph: Time For Sandals 2.25sec (King Charles III) 

Best Time Index: Daiquiri Bay 8.1 in the Copper Horse (meeting average 6.5) 

Best FSP: Map Of Stars 108.2% (won Wolferton) 

Peak Stride:  Yashin 8.41 metres (14th in Copper Horse)

Ombudsman was a stunning winner of the Prince of Wales’s Stakes for the second successive year to cement his place as being among the best in the world. 

Twelve months after pouncing from off a strong pace to win in emphatic fashion, he was at it again, although this time off a tempo that was deceptively less demanding, reflected by the fact he won in a time 0.33sec slower. 

The pacemakers, Mississippi River and Devil’s Advocate, tore off in front but they didn’t build the tempo and were something of an irrelevance. 

Ryan Moore initially went with them on Minnie Hauk but soon thought better of it. 

William Buick was content to keep kept Ombudsman ticking over in the first seven furlongs – two initial slow furlongs followed by five Pars – before inviting him to express himself over the final three furlongs. 

The son of Night Of Thunder did not need a second invitation and was quickest in each of the final three furlongs: 11.67sec; 11.41sec and 12.02sec. 

He was at least 1.3sec (about eight lengths) quicker than anything else over those closing stages. Minnie Hauk did not have his gears to keep up and Arc hero Daryz, on quicker ground, was subdued. 

Ombudsman’s Finishing Speed Percentage (FSP) of 105.87% illustrated that the strong gallop set by the pacemakers counted for little. His FSP the previous year, in a more evenly run race, had been 102.45%. 

The supporting races included a polished display by Blue Bolt in the Duke of Cambridge Stakes but it was the run of third home, Friendly Soul, which demands close attention. 

The John and Thady Gosden-trained mare didn’t get the rub of the green, being shuffled back to last of the 15 runners early on. That was compounded when she and Oisin Murphy found more trouble, on the rail, about a furlong and a half from home. 

In the circumstances, the pair performed wonders to make the frame and be beaten only 2¼ lengths. 

Friendly Soul was quickest through the fifth furlong (12.47sec) and sixth furlong (11.79sec) plus easily best in the final furlong (12.37sec). 

The daughter of Kingman might have been swiftest through the seventh furlong, too, had she not suffered more interference, but instead the winner grabbed a vital 0.36sec off her. For context, there was 0.43 seconds between them at the line. 

Do not discount Friendly Soul turning the tables on the winner should they meet again in the Tattersalls Falmouth Stakes at Newmarket on July 10. She was as big as 20-1 straight afterwards but that has contracted to 12-1 in the aftermath. 

It still looks a chunky price when you consider Blue Bolt varies between 3-1 and 4-1, and that Precise, the ante-post favourite, is far from certain to line up. 

Top Speed: Harlequin Sky 41.09mph (3rd in Windsor Castle) 

Fastest 0-20mph: Radiant Beauty 1.92mph (13th in the Kensington) 

Best Time Index: Victorious’s 6.6 in the Queen Mary (meeting average 5.8) 

Best FSP: Del Maro (107.65%, 2nd in Queen’s Vase) 

Peak Stride:  Ranga Tang’s 8.08 metres (3rd in Queen’s Vase) 

You don’t need the RaceiQ data to tell you that the Gold Cup was an epic, with Scandinavia wearing down the heroic Trawlerman in the final strides. 

There was 0.3seconds between the warriors over the final five furlongs with a titanic duel up the straight developing into a final furlong shootout. 

It briefly looked like Trawlerman would fend off a rival half his age, but Scandinavia pulled out a bit extra to break his heart. He was 0.19sec quicker in the final 220 yards and that made all the difference. 

No front-runner won at the meeting, but Trawlerman came mighty close. 

Depending on your viewpoint, William Buick either gave him a peach of a front-running ride or should have turned the screw from further out. 

Twelve months earlier, he had set searching fractions and the opposition were run into submission. A record time was achieved. 

But on that occasion, he was sitting on in-form, racefit ally with no question marks hanging over him. 

This time was different, and he opted for less aggressive tactics. That was perhaps predictable given his partner had been absent since the autumn plus had some well-documented issues in the build-up. 

Buick had a different hand to play and set slower fractions before gradually winding things up. Plenty were still taken out of their comfort zones but crucially Scandinavia, with two prep runs in the tank, was not. 

The winning time was 3.51sec slower than a year earlier; so in the region of 20 lengths. 

Had Buick asked for more earlier then Trawlerman might have kept galloping and broken Scandinavia’s resolve. Or he might have hit the wall and had an even harder race in defeat. 

We will never know for certain. Regardless, it was a memorable battle and let’s hope the pair meet again before the year is out. 

The Britannia Stakes and Buckingham Palace Stakes were unsatisfactory, being won by horses towards the foot of the weights from favourable high draws, but the King George V Stakes is a race to keep a close eye on. 

The winner, Enceladus, trained by Joseph O’Brien, who had a phenomenal week, began with four “fast” furlongs and his next pair were Par. 

In theory, that should have left him vulnerable (the next five home managed only five “fast” sectionals and recorded eight “slow” furlongs between them during this part of the race) but he kept on rolling with his final furlong of 12.08sec being fastest of the whole field. 

He was one the longest striders of the whole week – his peak here was 8.48 metres – and his future entries include the Irish Derby and Irish St Leger. 

But having won this off a mark of 89, his connections would be more prudent to attack more high-end middle distance/staying handicaps. 

Last year’s Queen’s Vase featured the subsequent St Leger 1-2 but last week’s renewal, for all it produced a fabulous finish, may not have the same impact. 

The Time Index of the race was just 4.6, when the meeting average was 5.8, with Limestone stopping the clock 3.34sec slower than the winner a year earlier. 

Unfortunately, there were network issues during the Queen Mary and we are investigating what data is available. Victorious won in a time 0.42sec quicker than Par and was an exception to the rule, winning on the straight course after racing mainly on the far side. 

There were no data problems for the Chesham. For more on that, and a horse with Derby potential, click here. 

Top Speed:  Venetia 43.06mph (8th in Ribblesdale) 

Fastest 0-20mph: Golden Mind 1.87mph (Buckingham Palace, 23rd) 

Best Time Index: Encaladus’s 7.5 in the King George V Stakes (meeting average 6.1) 

Best FSP: Mezcala 105.69% (won the Buckingham Palace) 

Peak Stride:  Enceladus 8.48 metres (won the King George V) 

Twelve of the 35 races at Royal Ascot were won by the favourite, with another joint-favourite also obliging. Had you blindly backed them all, you would have ended the meeting with a small profit. 

The two big Group One market leaders on day four, Precise and Venetian Sun, both delivered, although their supporters would have had some uncomfortable moments. 

Precise began slowly in the Coronation Stakes and that is becoming something of a bad habit. 

Her recent 0-20mph form reads 78006 and in those same races after a furlong she has been 70088, being last on two occasions. 

She’s shown the ability and tenacity to overcome that, but you fancy one day it’s going to get her in a tangle or prove her undoing. 

Indeed, it might have been here had the runner-up, Touleen, not had a wrteched passage up the home straight. 

This was an attritional Coronation where they went hard for the first five furlongs before all collectively grinding to something of a halt at the business end. 

All the runners recorded “very slow” final two furlongs with Precise finishing off with a final furlong of 12.8sec. Connections said afterwards they would probably look to her up in distance, in keeping with her pedigree, but she is a quick strider and it’s questionable whether further will suit. 

Touleen finished off in 12.56sec and, but for suffering interference, would have at the very least given the winner more to do. This was a personal best and you would imagine the Falmouth Stakes, for which she is a generally 8-1, will be next on her agenda (I’d still prefer Friendly Soul at the prices). 

Venetian Sun did things more smoothly in the Commonwealth Cup, although connections of the second (Spicy Marg) and third (Division) probably went home thinking of what might have been, as they had been languishing in 17th and 19th, respectively, from single figure draws with two furlongs to run. 

Division flew through the final two furlongs in 23.59sec, while Spicy Marg managed 23.63sec. Venetian Sun clocked 23.96sec but her earlier cushion was vital. 

Many will view Division as an unlucky loser, but he can be an awkward starter, so probably is not one to be making many excuses for. 

Libertango is a short as 10-1 for the 1000 Guineas after her dramatic swoop from off the pace in the Albany but looks all speed, which is also reflected by her stride data. She spins her wheels very quickly and, if she were mine, the Lowther and Cheveley Park would already be inked into her schedule. 

Sun Goddess fiund her too hot to handle her in the closing stages and looks like she needs at least an extra furlong. 

The Duke Of Edinburgh form seems certain to be solid – the Time Index was an impressive 8.8 – while Bacio’s numbers back up what was a visually stunning performance in the Palace Of Holyroodhouse. 

Wes Ward’s speedster was winning off a mark of 100 but can expect to be 110 or so after winning by the best part of four lengths. 

Ascot’s stiff final furlong exposed the smallest of chinks in him – three of his rivals were quicker through it – but he would be a fascinating contender for the Nunthorpe in August as York looks tailor-made for him. 

Top Speed: May Angel 43.36mph (8th Palace of Holyroodhouse.) 

Fastest 0-20mph: Ambiente Friendly 2.11sec 

Best Time Index: Opportunity’s 8.8 in the Duke of Edinburgh (meeting average 6.9) 

Best FSP: Green Carerra 103.74% (won the Sandringham) 

Peak Stride: Insanity 8.55 metres (13th in the Duke Of Edinburgh)

The Hardwicke was a Group One in all but name and produced the best performance of the day on the clock. 

And it might well have been even quicker, too, had Christophe Soumillon not lost an iron in the closing stages aboard Goliath. He was upsides the winner, Giavellotto, at the time, seemingly when revving up for a big finish. 

Goliath had been fastest in furlongs 10 and 11, clocking splits of 11.73sec and 11.90sec (only runner to dip under 12sec) but then came that untimely malfunction, capping an eventful week for his rider. Goliath’s final furlong was 12.82sec, yet his FSP was still best. 

He’s still available at 12-1 to win a second King George, back at Ascot next month, and it is hard to believe he will be that price on the day. 

Giavellotto took full advantage of his mishap, being a crucial 0.2sec quicker than Goliath in the final furlong. He’s an admirable racehorse whose career earnings are nudging £4 million. 

Sandwiching the pair was Kalpana, one of the best mares in training who travelled like a dream and looked the likely winner for much of the straight only to be worn down late on. 

Giavellotto pinched small fractions off her in five of the last six furlongs (0.19sec) and that ended up making a huge difference as he got up by a short head. 

This put to bed any theory about Kalpana needing give in the ground to be seen to best advantage and she will continue to be a force in all the top middle-distance events. She’s also 12-1 for the King George, having chased home Calandagan in last year’s edition. 

The Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes produced a blanket international finish where a nose, short head and head separated horses representing Britain, Japan, Australia and France. 

Almeraq snatched the spoils courtesy of a “fast” final furlong of 11.86sec. Satano Reve finished off in 12.02sec and had to again settle for silver. 

Stolen Kiss, fourth, was the eye-catcher, being fastest through the final two furlongs (23.16sec) after fluffing the start and being last of the 18 runners after the first furlong. 

He was still only fifteenth with two to run but then stayed on powerfully. He’s proven over further, and on softer ground, and it will be no surprise if he is back for the Sprint on Champions Day. 

Top Speed: Ez Tina 42.9mph (3rd in the Norfolk)

Fastest 0-20mph: Regional 1.88sec (tenth in the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes) 

Best Time Index: Hardwicke Stakes 7.9 when meeting average was 6.3 

Best FSP: French Master 105.56% (Queen Alexandra) 

Peak Stride: Joliestar - 8.3 metres (3rd in the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes) 

Let’s end where we started, with focus on the races that took place on the straight track. 

21-runner Coventry: (First four home drawn 3-15-10-19) Great Barrier Reef was one of six runners who stuck to the far side until halfway, when the sextet drifted over to the middle of the track. 

26-runner King Charles III: (24-15-19-11): The jockeys chose to ignore both rails. The race panned out down the middle of the track. 

27-runner Queen Mary (5-10-16-23): Eleven stuck to far side and that’s where the first two came from. 

28-runner Royal Hunt Cup (33-23-8-32): Despite the Going Stick pointing to the stands’ side having the fastest ground, only eight stayed on stands’ rail. The other 20 went far side, several going out of their way to migrate there. Rogue Diplomacy shot up the stands’ side rail to win by a length from Blue Rc,, who also raced on that part of the track. 

24-runner Kensington Palace (16-21-18-25): Just 35 minutes later, 19 clustered on the stands’ side, including the first 14 home. Only five stuck to the far side. 

25-runner Windsor Castle (22-14-25-23): Sixteen runners stayed on the stands’ side and they had the first four home. Nine stayed far side 

27-runner Chesham (13-10-6-5) – they raced as one , favouring the stands’ side 

30-runner Britannia (25-18-25-32) they split in two camps – and the stands’ side finished well on top. 

28-runner Buckingham Palace Stakes (30-31-23-8) Only six went far side and the performance of Sale Shark, first home in that group and fifth overall, can be upgraded. 

25-runner Albany Stakes (3-17-23-7) They raced as one down stands’ side. The far side was completely shunned. The winner raced middle to stands’ side. 

22-runner Commonwealth Cup  (13-8-3-7) Eight raced on the stands’ side, with the rest coming down the centre. The winner ran straight down the middle, edging to the far side late on. 

30-runner Britannia (30-21-19-14) Initially there were three groups, then two: far side and middle. The first seven raced on the stands’ side

27-runner Palace Of Holyroodhouse (31-11-28-9) The majority thought the centre was the pace to be, with seven sticking to the stands’ side. The rapid American challenger, Bacio, was among the smaller group and would have almost certainly won wherever he was drawn. 

21-runner Norfolk (16-8-14-18) They raced down middle, with the winner edging far side late on. 

18-runner Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes (11-18-9-15): All the action unfolded down the centre to far side 

16-runner Jersey Stakes (2-1-8-3). Seven came up stands’ side, with the rest down the middle. The front pair ended up towards the far side. 

27-runner Wokingham (24-18-14-17) Two came stands’ side; six went far side, with the rest congregating down the centre. The winner edged a little to the stands’ side late in the scene.