Derby Day: The Data Detective's five best bets

Sometimes the RaceiQ data can take you in different directions, much like the formbook, but all the numbers are pointing in one direction for this year’s Betfred Derby. 

Benvenuto Cellini has recorded a top speed higher than any of his rivals (41.46mph); has clocked the fastest furlong of them all (10.82sec); and boasts the best Finishing Speed Percentage (114.55%). 

And perhaps most significant, the Frankel colt also has the biggest average stride and lowest stride cadence, which means double trouble for the opposition as it gives him the capacity to devour ground and stay well.

The horse who resembles 1977 winner The Minstrel dazzled on his reappearance in the Chester Vase last month, when his peak stride measured 8.36 metres. You can quibble with what he beat that day, but not the evidence of the clock. 

He got a RaceiQ Time Index of 9.6, when the meeting average was 8, and finished off with four successive “fast” furlongs, completing them in 47.31sec. 

We also know how O’Brien’s horses can improve another chunk for their trial run. Three of the stable’s Derby winners - Ruler Of The World, Wings Of Eagles and Lambourn - ran in the Chester Vase beforehand and then upped their game by 11lb and upwards at Epsom. 

He had first stamped himself as a Derby prospect when winning over a mile at Leopardstown at the Irish Champions Festival in September, when signing off with two sub-12-second furlongs. 

The data cannot tell us is whether Benvenuto Cellini will cope with the demands of Epsom, but his previous victories at Killarney and Chester, both sharp tracks where horses must be balanced and quick on their feet, augur well. He was below par on bottomless ground at Doncaster in the autumn but has won on a range of other surfaces.

Arisaig invariably gives her running and made a highly encouraging return on her penultimate start at Newmarket. 

She was unable to land a blow on the well-backed winner, Mister Winston, although time may well tell she faced an unenviable task trying to concede him 9lb. 

Moreover, Arisaig gave him quite a head start as she was last of the ten runners with three furlongs to run, whereas he was dictating even fractions on the favoured far side. 

She was second fastest of the whole field in furlong six, and fastest of all in furlongs seven and eight. That enabled her to pass seven rivals in the closing stages, but the winner had gone beyond recall. 

I fancied her for the Conqueror Fillies' Stakes at Goodwood last time on the back of that effort, but she wasn’t’ seen to best advantage in a steadily run race. 

This promises to be run to suit better and her strong Finishing Speed percentages – she’s finished best in four of her past seven races - suggest she can overhaul the opposition under Jamie Spencer, whose Actual versus Expected of 1.13 is the best among the eight jockeys.

Calandagan has recorded some exceptional RaceiQ numbers and can avenge the defeat he suffered at the hands Jan Brueghel in this race last year. 

Plenty focused on the finish that day, but the start was just as vital. The winner was 0.4sec quicker to 20mph and 0.78sec faster through the first furlong. He ended up winning by 0.01sec, even though Calandagan was quickest of the pair in furlongs 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 and 11. 

Calandagan is now more the finished article than 12 months ago and The Cruiser, proven on any ground, simply has more gears than The Bruiser. He can make it six Group 1 wins on the spin.

It’s not often you can win a 16-runner 7f handicap by clocking the lowest top speed among the runners but that’s exactly what Bizarre Law managed here last time. 

He was still only 13th with two furlongs to run but then produced a dramatic surge to get up close home and pip No Gain by a short head. The data tells us he was fastest through each of the final three furlongs. 

Bizarre Law has gone up 5lb but he had tumbled to a humble mark and remains well in on his old form. He will no doubt be dropped out again but the likely pace angle in the race, Finn Ironside, is drawn next to him, which will help.

It was five years ago that Adam Kirby was winning the Derby on Adayar. He’s got smaller fish to fry on Saturday, having a couple of runners at Lingfield, but they can be just as sweet. 

No Gain was the filly grabbed late on by Bizarre Law at Doncaster and had no trouble going one better off the same mark here three days later. 

She’s now 6lb higher but can prove equal to the task. She herself came from off the pace last time, finishing fastest in each of the final three furlongs. She was at least 0.6 seconds than anything else in the last two.