RaceiQ: essential guide to the Derby data of all runners

The Derby has spawned more than 100 imitations around the world since it was first run in 1780, but the original remains the greatest of them all.

That first edition, 246 years ago, was the brainchild of Sir Charles Bunbury and the 12th Earl of Derby, Edward Smith-Stanley, who flipped a coin over whether to call their new race The Derby or The Bunbury.

Suffice to say, had the coin dropped differently we would be anticipating another renewal of The Bunbury at Epsom on Saturday. It hasn’t got quite the same ring, has it?

Bunbury gained a degree of consolation when Diomed, owned by him, beat eight rivals in the first running. And, of course, he is remembered each July, with the Bunbury Cup being run at Newmarket.

The early roll of honour included legendary names such as Ormonde, Hyperion and Bahram, while the past 60 years alone have seen such luminaries prevail as Sea-Bird, Nijinsky, Mill Reef, Shergar, Nashwan, Generous, Lammtarra, Galileo, High Chaparral and Sea The Stars.

And, of course, there have been celebrated near-missers. Dancing Brave anyone?

It was only in 1967 that starting stalls were introduced, while this will be just the fourth year when we have the help of RaceiQ to help give us a full picture of the contenders.

Here’s a guide to those left in the race using some of the data. We will update on Wednesday, once the draw has been made. 

Official rating: 113. Odds: 16-1. Win strike rate: 16.66%.

Draw advantage: ?  

Top Speed: 40.57mph. Highest Finishing Speed percentage (FSP): 108.75%.

Average stride frequency: uncomfortably high.

He’s a half-brother to Lambourn, winner of the Derby last year, but it is hard to see him emulating him. He was brushed aside by Item in the Dante last time, having previously looked awkward when fourth in the Classic Trial at Sandown.

His efforts as a two-year-old, when a staying-on third to Bow Echo in the Royal Lodge before going close in the Futurity on heavy ground at Doncaster, were superior. His stride data also casts doubt as to whether he wants the move up to a mile and a half.

Moreover, he can be awkward at the stalls, with his slow starts a recurring theme (he boasts the slowest 0-20mph speed of the whole field).

Official rating: 83.  Odds: 200-1. Win strike rate: 0%.

Draw advantage: ?

Top Speed: 39.5mph. Highest FSP: 108.54% 

Average stride frequency: encouraging for middle distances.

Alderman is one of two maidens in the field, being beaten an aggregate of more than 14 lengths in his three races. You need a vivid imagination to envisage him hitting the jackpot. Voyage represented the same team two years ago, only to unship his jockey at the start. 

Official rating: 100. Odds: 12-1.  Win strike rate: 75%.

Draw advantage: ?

Top Speed: 39.97mph. Highest FSP: 109.11%.

Average stride frequency: hescores well on this metric. 

The Frankel colt changed hands for 1,100,000gns a yearling and, as you would expect, is a good looker. His dam is a sister of the top-class Midday and his pedigree, plus stride data, point to a mile and a half being no bother. 

His wins at Beverley and Goodwood last summer were nothing out of the ordinary, but he went about his work in a willing fashion when landing a Listed prize on his return over 1m 2f at Newmarket, which went some way to banishing the memory of his tame run in the Royal Lodge.

He was swiftest to 20mph that day and was never far from the lead, clocking three “fast” furlongs for starters but signing off with five “slow” ones. 

Third-placed Archers Bay, who has a rating of 93, was actually quicker than him over the final five furlongs, and a big chunk of improvement is required at this elite level. 

Official rating: 84.  Odds: 150-1. Win strike rate: 20%.

Draw advantage: ?

Top Speed: 40.25mph. Highest FSP: 110.14%.

Average stride frequency: Others are more obvious stayers.

Looks to have a mountain to climb but that will not deter his owner, Ahmad Al Shaikh, as Khalifa Sat (50-1) was runner-up for him in 2020 and Hoo Ya Mal (150-1) filled the same position in 2022. The better fancied Deira Mile (25-1) was fourth in his silks in 2024.

A Taste Of Glory will do well to get anywhere near the places, having trailed home last in both the Criterium De Saint-Cloud and Lingfield Derby Trial

Official rating: 97.  Odds: 150-1. Win strike rate: 25%.

Draw advantage: ?

Top Speed: 40.4mph. Highest FSP: 109.83%.

Average stride frequency: Bit of a mixed bag.

If the Derby were a contest to reach 20mph the quickest, then he would be in contention. He’s hit that speed the swiftest in three of his races, but it’s rarely about how you start in mile and a half races, but how you finish. And Balzac has been one paced in finishing third in the Blue Riband Trial at Epsom, plus Lingfield Derby Trial (well adrift of Maltese Cross and Bay Of Brilliance).

Official rating: 107.  Odds: 12-1. Win strike rate: 50%.

Draw advantage: ?

Top Speed: 40.25%. Highest FSP: 112.33%.

Average stride frequency: positive.

Had a great tussle with Maltese Cross in the Lingfield Derby Trial; showing a willing attitude after a six-month absence but coming off second best against a rival who had the advantage of a recent run. The pair were never more than 0.23sec apart from each other.

The chestnut son of New Bay, a half-brother to Absurde among others, was building on the promise of his wins at Goodwood and Redcar (on softish ground) last year, when showing plenty of staying potential. His low stride cadence clearly serves him well in this respect.

Ralph Beckett describes him as a “cool customer” and told Luck On Sunday viewers yesterday that he believes Epsom will suit him.

I’d imagine he will be encouraged by the rain that is forecast to fall at the track through the week as New Bay’s stock generally excel on easy surfaces. That said, he coped with fine with the fast conditions at Lingfield.

Official rating: 112.  Odds: 2-1. Win strike rate: 60%.

Draw advantage: ?

Top Speed: 41.46mph. Highest FSP: 114.55%.

Average stride frequency: his data screams stamina.

The striking chestnut with a wonky blaze stands out from the crowd in more ways than one.

You can quibble with the quality of his form, but not the manner of his wins; the evidence of the clock; or what the data is screaming about his untapped reserves of staying power.

His two-year-old exploits included a runaway victory in the KPMG Champions Juvenile Stakes over a mile at Leopardstown and that’s a race that Aidan O’Brien favours for his would-be Derby horses, having won it with Australia and Auguste Rodin in the past.

And he kicked off his campaign this year with a similar wide-margin success in the Chester Vase; a race Ruler Of The World, Wings Of Eagles and Lambourn contested for the stable before going on to glory at Epsom.

The common denominator between Leopardstown and Chester was a sound surface, which Benvenuto Cellini devoured, as befits a long-striding son of Frankel whose dam blitzed the opposition as a juvenile at the Breeders’ Cup in 2018.

There is not a horse in the Derby who strides more like a stayer than this fellow. He is the owner of all three lowest stride averages in the race – 2.04 per second at Chester, 2.1 at Killarney and 2.11 at Leopardstown.

His cadence is extremely low, helping him preserve energy. On paper at least, you would imagine him having no bother getting further. Possibly much further.

But we know this colt is not a slowcoach and at full stretch he can eat up ground like no others. His stride reached a maximum of 8.39 metres as a juvenile, when losing his maiden tag at Killarney, and the tight nature of Chester did not prevent him reaching 8.36. He averaged 7.98 in the latter race, a distance many horses cannot ever hope to obtain, even when at maximum capacity.

Little wonder, perhaps, that he got lost on heavy going in the Futurity at the end of last year. Those conditions clearly blunted his main weapon.

Long striders have thrived in recent editions of the Derby. Lambourn touched 8.06 metres on his way to victory last year, when the three longest striders in the line-up finished in first four. And the first three home all had the lowest average strides per second – between 2.12 and 2.13.

Twelve months earlier, the long striders had enjoyed a one-two with City Of Troy (7.98 metres maximum) beating Ambiente Friendly (7.84). And third placed Los Angeles (7.69) was fourth highest. City Of Troy averaged 2.13 strides per second, a smidgeon off being lowest.

Benvenuto Cellini in full flow is a sight to behold, and we can expect more of the same provided Epsom’s twists, turns and contours do not throw him off balance. He looked nimble enough at Chester, even if that was Plan B for him (Plan A had been the Blue Riband Trial at Epsom but O’Brien had a reshuffle when that race got delayed by a week).

His winning time in the Chester Vase was the quickest since 2002; almost 5sec better than Lambourn the year before, albeit on faster terrain. He got a RaceiQ Time Index of 9.6, when the meeting average was 8, and signed off with four successive “fast” furlongs, which he completed in 47.31sec.

He's blessed with speed and stamina; has had a good prep plus in the care of a trainer who knows a thing or 11 about how to win the premier Classic. And the stable will be buoyant after landing a famous 1-2-3 in the French Derby on Sunday.

Official rating: 108.  Odds: 66-1. Win strike rate: 75%.

Draw advantage: ?

Top Speed: 40.16%  Highest FSP: 109.63%.

Average stride frequency: A mixture.

The Wootton Bassett colt has two distinguised aunties in Magical and Rhododendron, but whether the Drrby is Plan A for him remains to be seen.

He's already had three starts this term, putting up a personal best to land the Group Three Gallinule Stakes over ten furlongs at The Curragh last time.

Causeway had little to spare at the finish, but the Time Index of 9.9 for that contest, when the meeting average was 7.9, suggests it would be dangerous to underestimate him.

However, the sectionals do not shout for him to be pushed up in trip, with the runner-up, Zia Zabel, being quicker than him over the final six furlongs and only needing a few more strides, possibly, to get up.

It could be that Causeway is found more opportunties over ten furlongs, or is possibly dropped back to a mile.

Official rating: 109.  Odds: 25-1. Win strike rate: 60%.

Draw advantage: ?

Top Speed: 39.16mph. Highest FSP: 110.43%.

Average stride frequency: solid.

Christmas seems to get earlier every year, doesn’t it? This year it could be making the headlines as early as June 6. Or perhaps it won’t.

Ballydoyle’s Christmas Day has been scattering gifts to his supporters on a recurring basis – wins at 11-1, 13-2 and 6-4 – but it was a case of Bah Humbug in the Dante last time when he lacked the gears to keep up and ended up finishing 4 ½ lengths third to Item.

He was 0.40sec ahead of Item after 6f in the Dante, but by the finish was 0.75sec behind him.

Moving up in trip should suit him, although it’s still questionable whether he will have the requisite speed, although that may need revisiting if the ground happened to turn soft. It could be the St Leger will be more his cup of tea, 

Official rating: 106.  Odds: 66-1. Win strike rate: 20%.

Draw advantage: ?

Top Speed: 41.49mph. Highest FSP: 114.47%.

Average stride frequency: stamina alarm bells.

He’s a smart performer but has already finished behind Benvenuto Cellini, Christmas Day, Pierre Bonnard (three times) and James J Braddock, with no obvious reason why he will turn the tables on any of them. 

Ten furlongs seems likely to be his optimum trip and, if he does run, I’d imagine that he will be assigned a pace making role for better fancied stablemates, not least because he has made the running in recent starts. 

Official rating: 117.  Odds: 100-30. Win strike rate: 100%

Draw advantage: ?

Top Speed: 39.43mph. Highest FSP: 109.22%.

Average stride frequency: would not put you off.

The Juddmonte homebred is the only unbeaten colt in the race, although having had only three starts he is also one of the least experienced.

That is not a big concern after his decisive win in the Dante last time, when he was well backed just before the off. He pulled almost three lengths clear of Action in the closing stages, with Christmas Day, the Ballysax winner, back in third.

Item had gained taking wins at Kempton and Bath as a juvenile, but his performance at York was on another level and it remains one of best trials, yielding the Derby winner a dozen times since 1960.

He recorded the top speed in the race (38.6mph) and his Finishing Speed Percentage of 103.12% was best by 1.4%. There was only one “fast” furlong from him but, on the flip side, not one “slow” furlong. Most of his rivals were “slow” for the final half mile, but that says more about him, not them.

The overall Time Index of the Dante was 4.4, when the meeting average was 4.1. So, nothing out of the ordinary.

He’s shown excellent gate speed, reaching 20mph in 2.47sec, 2.49sec and 2.59sec, but his ability to stay the trip is a niggle on the dam’s side of his pedigree, even if he kept on stoutly to pull away in the closing stages of the Dante. On the plus side, he looks a relaxed character and his stride data at York offers hope he will get an extra quarter of a mile.

Andrew Balding, his trainer, has twice had the runner-up in Khalifa Sat (2020) and Hoo Ya Mal (2022), while Juddmonte have struck with Quest For Fame (1990), Commander In Chief (1993) and Workforce (2010). Five other colours in the pink and green have been placed, including Dancing Brave (1986). 

Official rating: 108.  Odds: 10-1. Win strike rate: 50%.

Draw advantage: ?

Top Speed: 39.07mph. Highest FSP: 112.88%.

Average stride frequency: it would not put you off.

The bargain buy dug deep to edge out Pierre Bonnard and Endorsement in the Derby Trial at Leopardstown last time.

His effort probably needs marking up as that was a slow-run race that developed into a dash, and he has looked more about stamina that speed, including when previously fifth in the Ballysax behind Christmas Day.

He pulled off a final furlong of 12.18sec in the Ballysax to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat. The Time Index of 4.9, when the meeting average was 5.2, illustrated the sedate early gallop.

Before his latest success, Jospeh O’Brien thought he might be a horse for the King Edward VII Stakes, at Royal Ascot, but you can understand why they are rolling the dice and aiming higher.

O’Brien guided Australia and Camelot to Derby glory for his father, Aidan, and began training a decade ago. He’s had three previous Derby runners, with Tennessee Stud finishing third last year. 

Official rating: 108.  Odds: 8-1. Win strike rate: 75%.

Draw advantage: ?

Top Speed: 39.99mph. Highest FSP: 111.52%.

Average stride frequency: his low cadence points to him staying well.

The photo finish equipment usually gets a workout when Maltese Cross is in town. After losing by a neck on his debut, he’s reeled off three successive wins, by a head and then twice by a neck. No wonder that William Haggas, his trainer, says “he likes a battle”.

That latest battle was up against Bay Of Brilliance in the Lingfield Derby Trial, when the pair dominated the closing stages of a steadily run race.

Plenty will fancy Bay Of Brilliance to run the tables, given he was at a perceived fitness disadvantage, but Maltese Cross is himself still improving and you’ve got to love the attitude of Sea The Stars colt, who is out of a Camelot mare. He clocked the top speed that day (39.99mph); had the best Finishing Speed Percentage (111.52%); and the longest stride (peak 7.96 metres).

He’s already shown the trip is no issue, which is no surprise given his low stride cadence. Regardless of how he gets on at Epsom, he already looks a likely type for the St Leger.

Official rating: 109.  Odds: 7-1. Win strike rate: 60%.

Draw advantage: ?

Top Speed: 40.39mph. Highest FSP: 110.53%.

Average stride frequency: Middle of the road.

There will be few better lookers in the field, if any, and he was winter favourite after successive wins in the Zetland Stakes and Criterium De Saint-Cloud at the end of last season.

The past two winners of the latter contest, Los Angeles and Tennessee Stud, went on to be placed in the Derby but he’s not gone to the next level this term; finishing a disappointing seventh on his return in the Ballysax at Leopardstown before being outmuscled close home by James J Braddock in the Derby Trial over the same course and distance last time.

He was quickest to 20mph that and recorded the top speed (38.56mph), plus had an advantage over the winner the whole way (up to 0.34sec), only to be collared on the line.

That steadily run race possibly isn’t the best to make firm conclusions about, and you get the sense that Pierre Bonnard has a bigger performance in him, but he’s going to need one.

Official rating: 80.  Odds: 100-1. Win strike rate: 0%.

Draw advantage: ?

Top Speed: 39.36mph. Highest FSP: 102.29%.

Average stride frequency: A little on high side.

The yearling sales can resemble a giant game of Poker at times, so he is well named after being purchased for more than £4.5 million at Tattersalls.

He’s been more High Card than Royal Flush, though, as he has yet to win after three starts, recouping just £11,000 for Amo Racing.

The Wootton Bassett colt was beaten 8½ lengths by Bay Of Brilliance at Redcar in late October, when in receipt of 7lb, and first-time cheekpieces were not enough for him to get his head in front at Haydock last time. Other connections would have folded by now.

Official rating: 100.  Odds: 100-1. Win strike rate: 33.33%.

Draw advantage: ?

Top Speed: 38.17mph. Highest FSP: 108.3%.

Average stride frequency: Middle of the road. 

The Frankel colt lost his maiden tag in the mud at Galway in October but was no match for Benvenuto Cellini in the Chester Vase last month, when the winner was also conceding 4lb.

He raced in a clear lead for much of thar contest – he led Benvenuto Cellini by 1.35sec after half a mile - and may well be asked to reprise that role.

Pacemakers had a fruitful time last season – Qirat won the Sussex Stakes and Birr Castle was third in the Juddmonte International – and he could outrun his odds, but he looks booked for a supporting role. 

Official rating: 99.  Odds: 100-1. Win strike rate: 50%.

Draw advantage: ? 

Top Speed: 40.07mph. Highest Finishing Speed percentage: 109.61%.

Average stride frequency: Not easy to assess.

Rebel Rocker will fly the flag for the minnows in the greatest Flat race of them all. He will carry the colours of his Devon-based breeder-owner Jennifer Dorey and be rookie trainer Faye Bramley’s first runner in the race.

There’s plenty of stamina in his pedigree and he booked his place by finishing runner-up to Saxon Street in the Blue Riband Trial, having previously won as Kempton maiden in November. He was marginally quicker than the winner over the last half mile at Epsom.

His track experience is a tick in his box, but Saxon Street’s subsequent odds-on defeat at Goodwood – after which his connections ruled out a tilt at the Derby – has hardly enhanced his claims.