Dave Nevison tips: Thursday bets at Carlisle and Wincanton

Patrick Wadge claiming 3lb against other conditional riders is a steal, and he only gets the allowance because his boss, Lucinda Russell, has put him up on this four-year-old who is having his first run in a handicap. 

After falling on his hurdles debut, he has improved on his two latest starts and stayed on well plus was not beaten far on each completed run. 

He probably wants further than this but is going up a furlong on one of the country’s stiffest tracks, so will definitely appreciate the test. 

The selection is related to horses rated much higher than 104, so I am hoping that a fair opening mark, and a gifted 3lb allowance might be a strong starting point for him.

This mare hasn’t perhaps lived up to her winning debut in a bumper but she may well have had breathing issues that have held her back a little. 

Since having a wind operation earlier this year, she did win a low-grade handicap hurdle at Ludlow but couldn’t follow up on her latest start. 

It seems pretty clear that she really needs a stamina test and I am very hopeful there will be improvement  now she attempts three miles for the first time.

Irish Lullaby was a stayer who placed at Listed level on the Flat and was highly tried for most of her career on the level. 

She has joined a very progressive yard for her jumps career and has already scored twice from just three runs over hurdles. 

After a promising third on her debut, she has been odds-on to win two mare’s only novices in contrasting style, and evidently enjoying a confidence boost from being dropped in class. 

An opening mark of 104 is only a stone higher than her flat rating and by my rule of thumb, that could put her exceptionally well in for this handicap debut. 

She certainly deserves to go off as favourite off this mark and could make a mockery of her rating at a track that is sure to bring out her stamina.