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Dave Nevison's top tips for Tuesday: Geranium ready to blossom at Sandown

By Dave Nevison@nevisondave
Tue 21 Jul 2020

Click here to view all the runners and riders at Sandown on Tuesday plus the best live odds and Timeform comments.

There is a competitive nine-race card at Sandown on Tuesday which features some trappy handicaps and also a fillies’ only Listed contest at 7.15pm.

Several runners are long overdue a win on the card, but hopefully these three might be the ones taking the opportunity. Every race will be shown live on Racing TV and the action gets underway at 4.25pm.

5.35 Sandown: Geranium at a general 11-2

The last time this horse ran over this course and distance, he got beat at odds-on, which obviously disappointed quite a few punters.

However, the horse that beat him has progressed to a mark of 85 since then, so it was not as bad an effort as first appeared.

Geranium went up for that defeat and has run respectably off the higher mark but now finds himself back down on 70 and in a 0-68 handicap, which is lower than the grade he last won in.

Trainer Hughie Morrison obviously thinks it is worth exploiting the rule which allows him to run off 2lb higher than the ceiling of this race and, as I have mentioned several times, it is a policy exploited by shrewd trainers.

There are some consistent types in this field but none of them look as though they are running out of their grade, and most get beat at this level and lower.

6.05 Sandown: Harlow at a general 13-8

Until his last two runs, this horse has been most disappointing, especially on his turf runs.

However, looking back through his form, it looks as though he paid the price for beating a John Gosden-trained runner on his debut and followed that up with a good run off a mark in the mid-80s on his second run.

He was not able to maintain things at that level but has run two really good races off 64 over too short a trip recently and looks set to score soon.

The 3lb raise for getting beaten last time is annoying, but I think it will be negated by the extra two furlongs and stiffer finish than at Yarmouth and he should be able to win a weak race.

8.15 Sandown: Kings Royal Hussar at a general 9-2

Changing conditions on the day of the race I believe might have deprived this horse of a recent win on the flat and I am hoping the rain does not arrive at Sandown on Tuesday as he fares much better on quicker ground.

I am not worried about the trip, though I do believe it is the upper limit of his stamina and while I have nothing at all against Tom Marquand, in fact I believe he is a gifted jockey, there is nobody riding better at the moment than Hollie Doyle.

She takes over on Tuesday and I am hoping she has studied the last run at Newbury and decides to keep this horse covered up and deliver him late to beat an exposed field.

He was raised a 1lb for that good effort at Newbury but it won’t be that that gets him beat in my opinion, as being delivered late might be the key.

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