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Dave Nevison's top tips for Friday: Carbon made of solid stuff?
By Dave Nevison
Last Updated: Tue 5 Dec 2023
Tipping ahead of forecast rain is a precarious game as racecourses seem to have an uncanny knack of getting rain when not forecast and missing it when a deluge is predicted.
Looking at all forecasts, it seems certain that rain is incoming, and I have leaned towards runners who are proven on soft in the past.
In any event, I have my excuse in early should Friday’s bets disappoint! Best of luck.
Dave Nevison
Finished: 1stSP: 5/4
Dreamweaver has never raced on soft but is by Mastercraftsman and his offspring usually act on it, so I am happy to take that chance should the going shift.
Apart from that, Ed Walker’s gelding looks Friday’s good thing to me. A good winner at Goodwood in May, he improved again to be runner up in a competitive 0-80 handicap at Sandown last time and drops back to bottom weight in a 0-75 here.
There are two front runners in the eight-runner field, so pace looks guaranteed which will suit Dreamweaver who will get further when asked and there do not appear to be obvious improvers against him.
Dave Nevison
Finished: 1stSP: 4/1
I liked the look of this colt at York when I saw him and he was right up against it in a strong Saturday event with two useful and experienced horses who finished a few lengths ahead of him, and the winner is favourite for the Listed Rose Bowl stakes at Newbury on Friday.
Treble Treble broke well at York and showed good pace before fitness told. He got his second wind and stayed on nicely to be a clear third and I was impressed with the run.
He has the experience this time and is up against a favourite who finished nearly last in the Albany last time and, at forecast odds, is definitely worth a look each-way.
Out of Kevin Ryan’s last five two-year-olds that have been sent off 14-1 or less, four have finished second and one third, so a winner is definitely due.
Dave Nevison
Finished: 4thSP: 9/2
The only surprise to me about this one is that he was seemingly unbacked when successful on his first start for Roger Fell at Thirsk as most stable debutants seem to improve for joining the yard.
Apart from finishing last when favourite on his next start, Admirality has gone on to show himself yet another shrewd purchase by the Fell operation and ran a cracker at Newmarket last week in the Bunbury Cup.
The blow out was on heavy ground which would obviously be a worry if the conditions ended up testing, but he has been placed in a big field handicap at Gowran on heavy ground, so I am happy to put that run down to a “bounce” or factor unknown.
The tough six furlongs of Hamilton should not be an issue and he looks sure to run well.
Dave Nevison
Finished: 2ndSP: 8/1
You will not be very popular with your bookie backing this one each-way, as it seems certain the Mark Johnston runner King and Queen will be odds-on after it routed a moderate field at the weekend.
However, I believe Carbon Dating could even beat him as he looked on his way back to form last time out.
He got stopped in his run several times and finished with plenty of running in him, and could nearly have won in my view.
If he had done, Carbon Dating would have made it a massive-odds treble for the trainer, Andrew Hughes, who had been on a cold spell but is now clearly back in form.
Carbon Dating has fallen through the floor in the handicap and will undoubtedly never return to contesting Group Three events, but it may turn out significant that his last win at Hamilton came in a 0-75 in soft ground and he is in a 0-70 here.
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