Dave Nevison's top tips for Friday: Bank on the Ballydoyle battalion
By Dave Nevison
Last Updated: Tue 5 Dec 2023
Betting expert Dave Nevison selected three winners from three tips last Saturday at accumulative odds of 130-1 and has three fancies at Royal Ascot.
It was all about Frankie Dettori at Royal Ascot on Thursday, but Ryan Moore can inject some interest back into the competition to be named top jockey at the meeting by bringing home three short-priced favourites in the middle of the card.
Moore might not always have been at his brilliant best at Ascot over the past few years, but he has definitely got his eye in in this week and sometimes you just can't look beyond the obvious.
Dave Nevison
Finished: 1stSP: 6/4
James Willoughby and Angus McNae analyse the Derby
A Group Two-winning two-year-old, Japan was talked of as a leading Derby contender over the winter but when he arrived at York for the Dante the negative vibes were quite alarming.
He was a massive drifter in the market and never figured. He ran as though badly in need of the run, staying on nicely in the last two furlongs.
Japan showed the benefit of that outing with a much better effort in the Derby itself. Once again his stamina brought him into the race late on and he was beaten just over half a length into third. His jockey also dropped his whip in the closing stages, which cannot have helped.
Ascot should suit Japan better than Epsom and he has already won a race on soft ground, so easy conditions will be no issue.
I am finding it difficult to see a negative with him and make him a banker.
Dave Nevison
Finished: 4thSP: 1/1
Angus McNae and Dave Yates study the Middle Park win of Ten Sovereigns
Aidan O’Brien has already dropped one horse down in distance to win at the meeting, via Circus Maximus in the St James’ Palace on Tuesday.
Reverting Ten Sovereigns to sprinting is a much more obvious move and can also pay dividends.
He went through the ranks of maiden, Group Three and finally the Group One Middle Park as a two-year-old, all at six furlongs.
It was pretty obvious he was going to go for the Guineas, but also clear he might end up being a top class sprinter, rather than a miler.
He showed blistering speed to lead the group in the centre of the track at Newmarket and might have won over seven furlongs, but he emptied in the last furlong and just missed the frame.
Moore now knows what this horse is and, back to his optimum trip, can ride him from anywhere.
I thought he beat Jash comfortably enough in the Middle Park and his Guineas run at least showed us has clearly trained on.
The rest of them probably need to step up more than one grade to challenge and I doubt they will be up to it.
Dave Nevison
Finished: 2ndSP: 1/1
Watch how Hermosa landed the Qipco 1000 Guineas
Hermosa has already proven herself the best of her age and sex over a mile and can maintain her reputation here.
She was 14-1 at Newmarket but confirmed the form in even more impressive style at the Curragh in the Irish Guineas.
The likes of Pretty Pollyanna and, perhaps more likely, the rapidly-improving Jubiloso will mean this is no cakewalk but I am happy to stick with the proven filly.
At a bigger price and in a tougher race I have already advised backing Fujaira Prince in my article earlier in the week on the handicaps and am happy to stick with this one in the Duke of Edinburgh.
As ever I will be looking for the best possible deal on places for each-way bets. He is a general 7-1 chance.
Dave Nevison
Finished: 9thSP: 7/2
This horse looked like being a bet for me at Hamilton earlier this week but when the weather took a turn for the worse he was withdrawn.
I am sure his excellent trainer, Roger Fell, will have had half an eye at least on this race and I feel he has made the right choice.
A stiff mile on heavy ground at Carlisle proved just too much for my selection but he ran a cracker, looking like going close until just flattening out when the punishing hill and conditions got the better of him.
The winner has won again since and the form of that latest run could be strong. My Boy Lewis has been left on the same mark and Kieran Shoemark, who has been among the winners, rides.
Dave's top quintet:
Dave Nevison
Finished: 1stSP: 6/4
Dave Nevison
Finished: 4thSP: 1/1
Dave Nevison
Finished: 2ndSP: 1/1
Dave Nevison
Finished: 3rdSP: 4/1
Dave Nevison
Finished: 9thSP: 7/2
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