Dave Nevison's Cheltenham Festival tips: bets for day one

Day one of the Cheltenham Festival is regarded by many as the best day of the week with Grade Ones on the card. State Man would have been a great rival to Constitution Hill in the Unibet Champion Hurdle, but after that saga ended last week and the reigning champ was ruled out, State Man finds himself way clear of a modest Champion Hurdle field. 

It is no surprise Lossiemouth avoids a clash with her stablemate, and she can be another odds-on chanc for Willie Mullins that strikes in the Close Brothers Mares' Hurdle. She is unproven over this trip of 2m4f, but she races like a stayer and, certainly on her Cheltenham victories, she looks like she has plenty left in her. She definitely looks the best of her trainer’s four runners in that race.

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Quilixios is a Grade One-winning hurdler and might well be developing into at least as good a chaser after two good wins so far. 

There is no doubt this race looks to be a step up in grade over fences but, based upon his key hurdles form, I think he may be a shade overpriced in the market here. 

Quilixios’ only defeat this season came when stepped up to three miles at Punchestown, which seemed an odd move given that he has always looked to be a two-miler, and all but one of his seven wins have come over the minimum trip, although he did win a modest event over 2m3f on his chasing debut. 

He won nicely last time out when beating an odds-on rival, trained by Willie Mullins, and if he gets into a rhythm here, I expect he will go close in an open Arkle.

Martin Keighley may not have the firepower that Willie Mullins or Gordon Elliott have, but he does know how to prepare a horse for the Cheltenham Festival, and I have a feeling this mare will be spot on for this. 

Found On won five on the spin last Summer/Autumn, mostly in small fields, and then she was probably over the top when pulled up in two Listed races. Her final win in her sequence did come at this course, so Cheltenham will hold no fears for her, and with her regular partner Sean Bowen in unbelievably strong form (as demonstrated in the Imperial Cup on Saturday), I believe she has plenty going for her. 

If Found on had run more recently, I think she wouldn’t be a 50-1 shot here, but her absence could be her strength as she has won after nine months off previously, and her racing style means she will definitely give us a run for our money.

This is not a race Willie Mullins plays very hard in usually, but he holds a very strong hand this year, although it is too tough for me to try and separate his runners. 

Joseph O’Brien had a well-backed favourite win this race five years ago, and Lark In The Mornin definitely looks as though he has been plotted up to win this.

Unfortunately, bookies are not asleep about his chances, and the biggest price I can see is 13-2. This horse won first time out on the Flat (he was fourth on his other start on the level) and ran his best race over hurdles on his debut when second at Punchestown where he was not knocked about. 

He finished down the field at Leopardstown after that and made mistakes when last seen, but finished noticeably well when not given the hardest time last time out. 

In my opinion, this has been the target for some time, and JJ Slevin, who has been on board for each start, will no doubt be hopeful a rating of 122 gives his mount plenty to play with.

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