Cheltenham Festival tips: How To Bet £20 on Day One

Willie Mullins heads into the 2024 Cheltenham Festival six short of 100 winners at the great meeting but he seems unlikely to be stuck in the nervous 90s for long.

He’s no bigger than Evens to saddle ten winners or more over the four days and only 14/1 to win half of the 28 contests. It seems an absurdity to even contemplate that notion but it would be no surprise if gets off to a flyer on Tuesday.

State Man looks head and shoulders above the opposition in the Unibet Champion Hurdle for Team Closutton, while last year’s emphatic Triumph Hurdle winner, Lossiemouth, is difficult to oppose in the Close Brothers’ Mares Hurdle after her flawless return in the Unibet Hurdle.

Some will cling to the possibility that Lossiemouth won’t stay the longer trip but she still on the bridle at the end of 2m 1f on the New Course on her return (a course more stamina sapping than the Old Course she will encounter this time) and her sire, Great Pretender, has already helped produce one outstanding previous winner of the race in Benie Des Dieux.

If short-priced doubles rock your boat, then pairing up State Man and Lossiemouth is not the worst strategy. The combined odds are about Evens.

Mullins is mob-handed in the SkyBet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle and My Pension Expert Arkle Novices’ Chase. I fancy that Tullyhill is his ace in the former, with Hunters Yarn making plenty of appeal in the latter.

Tullyhill was among last season’s bumper performers and has put the indignity of being beaten at 1/8 on his hurdling bow firmly behind him on his past two starts.

He didn’t jump well when suffering that shock reverse in November but was better when dispatching a big field at Naas next time, and then better again when landing a Listed contest in emphatic style at Punchestown on his latest start. He made all on each occasion, clocking a slick time on his latest start.

I imagine he will have done plenty more schooling and if he does start pinging his hurdles then the others may not see which way he goes. There’s no doubting he has a stack of ability and Paul Townend may well be able to control things from the front.

The jumping of Hunters Yarn has also come under scrutiny as he fell at the final fence on his chasing bow at Fairyhouse, with the race at his mercy, and then clobbered two out when making amends back there next time.

However, those blemishes mask the fact that his jumping has, overall, been an asset. That is reflected by the RaceiQ data, as he gained 13.87 lengths in his first start over the larger obstacles and then 15.38 lengths on the second occasion.

There’s substance to his form, too, because the horse he trounced ten lengths last time, Path D’Oroux, is not unfancied for Wednesday’s Grand Annual (off a mark of 143) after subsequently running well behind Madara in a competitive handicap at Leopardstown. And the third home, Firm Footings, beaten 17 lengths, was well fancied for the Festival by the Gordon Elliott camp before being ruled out by injury.

One race that has always eluded Mullins – and most Irish trainers - is the Ultima Handicap Chase.  I fancy the home team may again keep the prize at home.

Kim Bailey has hit the post in this race a couple of times in recent years – Vinndication was a close fourth in 2020 and Happygolucky found only one too good in 2022 – and he holds a strong hand with Chanti Classico and Trelawne, a pair of novices who remain capable of better.

Chanti Classico is the shorter in the betting and looks the stable No 1 with stable jockey David Bass in the saddle, but I prefer Trelawne, who has been crying out for the return to this longer trip plus has Harry Cobden on board for the first time.

It was over staying trips that Trelawne came into his own over hurdles last season but Bailey has kept him to 2m 4f since switching him to fences this campaign. As such, he’s been disguising the horse’s true merit.

Nevertheless, Trelawne has still shown a high level of form despite showing a quirk or two, especially when chasing home Ginnys Destiny and Grey Dawning at Cheltenham in December with Crebilly, who was getting 5lb from him, back in fourth. That form is rock solid and suggests a mark of 144 is well within his range, especially now he gets a proper distance of ground to cover with the soft ground to his liking.

I came close to putting the Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle in the “too difficult tray” because it’s packed full of lightly raced juvenile hurdlers capable of better, with several no doubt ridden with an eye to the future along the way.

It’s the toughest puzzle of the day but I can’t resist a small punt on Latin Verse, who looked transformed when romping home by 19 lengths on his handicap bow on testing ground at Ludlow last time. It had looked a competitive race beforehand – the bookmakers went 4/1 the field – but proved anything but.

He had to win in something like that fashion to sneak into this contest but it would be folly to underestimate what he achieved because the clock backed up the impression he made, especially in the penultimate furlong when he was speeding up as others cried enough. His jumping was superb, too, with the RaceiQ data revealing that he gained 19.8 lengths with his leaping.

Latin Verse has to contend with a 10lb higher mark and is in deeper waters but he could still be on a handy mark. He was in the thick of things with Liari two out at Aintree earlier in the season but then faded, seeming to find the bottomless ground too much. He reopposes that rival on 13lb better terms, having clearly progressed.

Finally, I fancy Corbetts Cross will find a way to land the closing Maureen Mullins National Hunt Challenge Cup Amateur Jockeys' Novices' Chase.

He might well have won the Albert Bartlett last year had he not spied a gap at the final flight and ran out. His jumping over fences has been safe, rather than spectacular, but the form of his defeats behind Grangeclare West measures up and his win at Fairyhouse, in between, reads well.

The small field and extended trip should help him in terms of his jumping and he looks like a horse who could gallop all day. The Mullins-trained Embassy Gardens is the obvious threat but the memory of his tame surrender in the Albert Bartlett 12 months ago lingers. 

How To Bet £20 on Day One of the Cheltenham Festival: 

1.30 Cheltenham: Tullyhill £3 win at a general 7/2 (sponsors Sky Bet are refunding losing bets of up to £5)

2.10 Cheltenham: Hunters Yarn £3 win at a general 13/2

2.50 Cheltenham: Trelawne £4 each-wayat a general 10/1 (many firms are offering six places)

4.50 Cheltenham: Latin Verse £2 each-way with bet365, Betfair and Paddy Power at 33/1 (these firms are offering six places)

5.30 Cheltenham: £2 win on Corbetts Cross at a general 2/1

16p Win Super Heinz and 40p each-way accumulator (general odds in brackers)

1.30 Cheltenham: Tullyhill (7/2)

2.10 Cheltenham: Hunters Yarn (13/2)

2.50 Cheltenham: Trelawne (10/1)

3.30 Cheltenham: State Man (2/5)

4.10 Cheltenham: Lossiemouth (4/7)

4.50 Cheltenham: Latin Verse (33/1

5.30 Cheltenham: Corbetts Cross (2/1)

LEG 1: Tullyhill (No 12) and Firefox (No 3)

LEG 2: Hunters Yarn (No 4) and Found A Fifty (No 2) 

LEG 3: Trelawne (No 15) and The Goffer (No 6) 

LEG 4:  State Man (No 6)

LEG 5: Lossiemouth (No 6) 

LEG 6: Latin Verse (No 21) and Ndaawi (No 2)

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