Data Detective: clues and tips for Goodwood on Wednesday

Infraad has been something of a work in progress but hopefully this is the day he comes of age.

The Ghaiyyath colt was too fresh and keen when beaten on his seasonal reappearance at Nottingham, when a well-backed 11-10 favourite, but was a different proposition when romping home at Pontefract three weeks later. He won in a time 3.86sec quicker than the RaceiQ Par, with his Time Index being 9.9 when the meeting average was only 5.4. 

He was odds-on for his handicap bow at Chester last time on the strength of that, but he was slow away (that had previously been no issue) and that led to him having something of a nightmare passage.

Infraad did stick to his task – he was “quick” through the last three furlongs and had the best Finishing Speed Percentage – but the damage had been done.

On the plus side, that experience will not be lost on him and he’s now on a more conventional track and stepping up in trip, which should suit given the stamina on the distaff side of his pedigree.

The dangers are Hatteen, who finished ahead of Infraad at Nottingham and is 2lb better off despite a subsequent easy win at Doncaster, and Cannes, who is surely better than his run at Royal Ascot last time suggests.

Adonius is the only unbeaten runner in the Molecomb and the chestnut can make it four wins from as many starts.

He’s got great gate speed - his 0-20mph form figures read 312 - and he has made virtually all in his races, clocking some smart Time Index figures along the way.

He gave Hickory Lad 5lb and a beating at Chester last time and that horse now has an official rating of 100. The Time Index of that race was 8.9, when the meeting average was 8, and the Adonius won with something to spare under a penalty.

Bow Echo has all the attributes needed to complete the 2000 Guineas, St James’s Palace and Sussex Stakes treble.

He was imperious at Newmarket when quickest through each of the final three furlongs and followed up at Royal Ascot despite things going against him.  Click here for more analysis of that.

For a horse blessed with plenty of speed, he also stays a mile well. The only time he's not had the highest Finishing Speed Percentage was in the Royal Lodge at the backend of last season, when he was in front long enough and perhaps idled a bit.

He has already beaten Gstaad on two occasions and is a much quicker strider than his old rival. This speed favouring track looks made for him.

Bow Echo should also have no excuses from stall four, as RaceiQ calculates that it's the best gate of all and gives him an instant 0.43 length advantage. Those drawn high, including Zavateri,  have been done no favours.

Goldmoyne has been knocking on the door and should again go well from stall 6.

RaceiQ’s study of 85 similar seven-furlong races reveals 48 have been won by a runner drawn between one and seven, with the Actual versus Expected being 1.34 and 57.59% of rivals beaten.

Horses drawn 8 to 13 have been successful in 24 races, with the A/E being 0.86 and percentage of rivals beaten being 50.33%.

Meanwhile, those drawn 14 to 20 have taken the spoils 13 times, with the A/E being 0.62 and percentage of rivals beaten falling to 41%.

The message is clear then: low numbers are best with runners breaking from gates four, five or six winning five of the past nine editions.

Goldmoyne has the early speed to take full advantage of his favourable berth and represents a stable in terrific form. And with smart apprentice Mason Paetel taking off 5lb, he also receives weight from all his rivals.

Funiculi Funicula stands out among the four Willie Mullins-trained contenders in the Galway Plate and, like the trainer’s previous two winners of the race, will be partnered by Paul Townend.

The six-year-old has had only four starts over fences and made quite an impression when landing a 22-runner novice handicap chase at Punchestown at the start of May.

He was giving weight to all bar one of his rivals and hinted he could be destined for much bigger things, much like Kemboy, one of Mullins’ previous winners of that race, who went on to be a multiple Grade One winner over fences.

His lack of experience in such a competitive race is a niggle but he did contest three Grade One contests over hurdles – placed at Liverpool in one of them – and he’s jumped like an old hand since switching to the bigger obstacles with his career Jump Index score being 8 out of 10. Only Jesse Evans and Nowwhatdoyouthink have a higher rating (8.2) in this line up.

He’s gained an aggregate of 36 lengths with his jumping in chases and has had the best Finishing Speed Percentage in his past three starts.

Perhaps most significant, he is open to any amount of improvement.