Constitution Hill: the answers to ten key questions
By Andy Stephens
Last Updated: Thu 3 Sep 2026
Will former champion hurdler Constitution Hill soar to new heights on the Flat in the William Hill September Stakes on Saturday? Andy Stephens takes a closer look at his credentials with the help of the RaceiQ numbers.
1 Exactly how fast did he run at Kempton last time?
RaceiQ has 6944 horses who have run over 1m 4f at Kempton in its database, stretching back to 2013. If you want to be pedantic, it’s 1m 3f and 219 yards, although in fairness the missing yard has made a big difference on multiple occasions.
The going on the Polytrack surface is usually described as "standard to slow" but various factors can affect this, such as the weather, moisture levels and how the track is maintained. And then, of course, there are all the different weights carried, the pace of races and plenty more.
In those 13 years, none have been quicker than Kasparenko, who took 149.04sec to win the Listed Floodlit Stakes in November 2018. And no winner has been slower than Amiwithani, who beat two rivals in a Class 6 Handicap in January 2024 in 163.77sec.
Constitution Hill sits in 2,891st place after winning a novice contest over course and distance in March in 154.30sec. That puts him in the top half of a big table table, but below the top 40%.
He was never going to get near Kasparenko’s time after the pace in his race was steady for the first mile. RaceiQ logged the first eight furlongs as a mixture of Par, Slow and Very Slow.
Any athlete will tell you that is not conducive to achieving anything like a record time.
It led to something of a dash in the final half mile and Constitution Hill was equal to the task under Ryan Moore, with his final four splits being Fast, Fast, Very Fast and Fast.
He clocked 40.56mph in the penultimate furlong, which he polished off in 11.15sec, doing his work on the bridle. That was his most impressive segment, although his final furlong of 11.97sec was more workmanlike than wow.
With no habitual front-runners in the line-up, Saturday's race may unfold in a similar way.
There have been 20 winners of the September Stakes on Kempton’s Polytrack. Seventeen of them have won in faster times than Constitution Hill managed last time, often being much quicker, including the last trio, who carried less weight.
Bay Bridge took 150.87sec in 2023; Kalpana 153.34sec in 2024 and Giavellotto 151.13sec in 2025.
Two or three seconds here and there may not sound much but 1sec equates to about six lengths. So, Giavellotto won in a time in the region of 18 lengths quicker than Constitution Hill.
He had 5lb less on his back and the race was run a better overall tempo, but the final two furlongs were revealing.
Giavellotto had been exposed to a more demanding mid-race gallop than Constitution Hill, but he took 11.16sec to negotiate the penultimate furlong and his final furlong took 11.81sec; so he was 0.15sec quicker in the last quarter of a mile despite having to put in a much bigger shift beforehand.
Meanwhile, Kalpana finished off with four successive “Very Fast” furlongs two years ago after the field had dawdled through much of the first mile. She flew through the penultimate furlong in 10.88sec and completed the last in 11.43sec. Different circumstances to Constitution Hill, but also different gravy.
What we don’t know is how much Constitution Hill had left under his bonnet. That Kempton run came a month after his euphoric Flat debut at Southwell and his connections were seeking to gain a handicap mark, so it was not in their interests for their star to be wildly impressive.
His final splits of 11.31sec and 11.81sec at Southwell hinted the former Champion Hurdle winner could belatedly hit the heights on the level. He completed the final three furlongs in 35.01sec, more than 2sec (12 lengths) swifter than Square Necker, the runner-up.
Gethin has clocked the highest speed of all the runners on Saturday, hitting more than 42mph in the Coral-Eclipse in July, while Lion’s Pride has clocked the highest speed (41.27mph) of those to have run at Kempton.
2 What should we make of his official rating?
There’s not a runner in the race with a lower rating than Constitution Hill.
He has a mark of 101 and, if this weekend's race were a handicap, he would be between 9lb and 16lb better off with his six rivals.
Warrant Holder (110), Almeric (112), Dubai Future (113), Pride Of Arras (114), Tornado Alert (116) and Gethin (117) are all rated much superior.
However, Constitution Hill has been given that rating after just two runs on the Flat, whereas the others all have a much bigger body of work for the handicapper to gauge them by.
He slammed Square Necker (gave 5lb) by 9½ lengths at Southwell. That horse won his next two starts before being beaten about the same distance in the Ebor last time off a mark of 97.
The lowest-rated winner of the September Stakes this century has been Steppe Dancer, who had a mark of 104 before landing a weakish 2007 renewal.
This century, the average rating of the winner has been 114.5. Constitution Hill will need to find a stone of improvement to be up there.
His highest rating over hurdles was 175, and he is still rated 170 in that sphere. A general rule of thumb is to knock 50lb off a Jump rating to get a comparative Flat figure.
It rarely works out but, using this barometer, you could argue that 101 at least underestimates him.
On the other hand, Classical Allusion got to within two lengths of him last time in receipt of just 1lb and has since suffered four heavy defeats. His present rating is 79.
3 Could he lose the race at the gates?
Constitution Hill was only tenth fastest to 20mph at Southwell but is clearly a quick learner, as RaceiQ tells us he took just 2.74sec to hit that mark at Kempton last time, being third fastest of the field.
To put that into perspective, Giavellotto took 2.85sec to reach 20mph when landing the September Stakes last year, while Kalpana took 2.92sec 12 months earlier.
Among the opposition on Saturday, Tornado Alert is usually fast staters. Warrant Holder can dwell a bit.
4 How good is the opposition?
Gethin, above,heads the betting and sets a high standard on his best form.
The grey was an impressive winner of the Magnolia Stakes over 1m 2f at Kempton in April before going down by a neck to Ombudsman, when in receipt of 7lb, in the Brigadier Gerard Stakes at Sandown.
However, the lightly raced colt did run poorly in the Coral-Eclipse last time and will be moving back up in trip.
Pride Of Arras chased home Item in the Sky Bet York Stakes last time and that form got a big boost when the winner subsequently beat a star-studded field in the Juddmonte International.
Godolphin’s challengers include Tornado Alert, sixth in the Derby last year and since a winner at the highest level in Germany.
A strongly run race seems unlikely, with none of the runners usually front-runners. It could develop into a tactical dash.
5 How have older horses fared in the race?
The September Stakes was first run in 1979 and has never been won by a horse any older than 7. Yavana’s Pace won for that age group in 1999, as did Prince Bishop in 2014.
Constitution Hill will be only the third nine-year-old this century to contest the race after Self Defense (third in 2006) and The Whispering Teal (a distant third in 2005).
The former would return to Kempton the following month and win over hurdles, but it seems that ship has sailed for Constitution Hill after a series of falls.
In the past decade, only five horses aged 7 or older have taken part. They have struggled to make any impact, finishing 35564.
6 Is his 164-day absence a niggle?
No. Constitution Hill has run some of his best races when fresh and you cannot imagine him being undercooked for this assignment.
After breaks of 77 days or more, his record reads 11111F1. He had been off a year when beating Lossiemouth in the 2024 Christmas Hurdle.
Evidently, he’s straightforward to bring to a peak.
7 Would Kempton be his ideal track?
That’s debatable, given the stamina and speed he showed over Jumps, including on deep ground. A soft-ground September Stakes on the old turf track at Kempton would have been his cup of tea, but those days were more than 20 years ago now.
Constitution Hill will have mostly fond memories of his previous visits to Kempton.
He won three successive editions of the Christmas Hurdle there before his Flat victory at the track in the spring.
Moreover, he’s had several gallops at the Sunbury venue as part of his previous build-ups to the Cheltenham Festival.
8 Is Billy Loughnane a good fit for him?
Who would not want Billy The Kid on their side?
He’s a brilliant young talent and leads Oisin Murphy by 15 winners in the title race, which concludes next month.
His 700 career winners include 218 who have been four-year-olds or older on the all-weather.
That said, his overall Actual versus Expected (A/E) is 0.99, meaning his mounts have performed bang on what the market has expected over the past year.
Bookmakers tend to price his mounts up defensively, though, and punters back him blind, so he probably warrants an upgrade.
Loughnane’s A/E at Kempton is 0.85. In other words, his rides there (22 winners from 144 in the past year) have performed 15% below market expectations. That sequence does not consider his 31 seconds and 21 thirds.
He has an excellent book of rides at the meeting, including Woodhay Whisper (1.45), Evenfall (3.20) and Primo Lara (4.30).
9 What form is Nicky Henderson in?
Pass.
His last winner was St Gabriel in a Haydock bumper on May 9 but he’s had only 22 runners in the interim, and his only runner on the Flat this season has been Goblet Of Fire, whose form figures read 132.
Henderson’s overall A/E is 1.03, but at Kempton (both codes) it rises to 1.42. He’s had a 33.33% strike rate at the track in the past year.
10 And finally . . . does Constitution Hill rate any value at 4-1?
That depends on your viewpoint, especially as he was chalked up at 12-1 at the start of the week. Those who invested at that price will be on good terms with themselves.
His bulging Fan Club will not entertain backing anything else.
The only time he has not gone off favourite in his 16 races was on his hurdling debut, when he won at 85-40. The biggest price he has started since then is 9-4, when waltzing home in the 2022 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle.
In 13 subsequent races, he’s gone off at no bigger than 6-4, and has been odds-on ten times.
And now you can back him at 4-1, with only Gethin (6-4) and Tornado Alert (3-1) preferred in the betting.
I’m not sure how anyone can confidently predict how he will fare.
His first two performances on the Flat have been a cause for much celebration but now he is tasked with putting proven pattern performers in their place in what could be a muddling contest.
But Constitution Hill is a horse quite like no other. You should never let your heart rule your head when betting, but I'm going to make an exception in this instance.
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