Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe ante-post tip: 12-1 chance looks overpriced

There is an obvious risk/reward with backing anything for the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe before we know the draw and ground. Only Torquator Tasso has defied a double-digit stall to win the Longchamp showpiece in the past decade, and since the race was moved back to the new ParisLongchamp in 2018, six of the eight renewals have been won by a horse drawn in six or lower. The first three home last year came from the three lowest stalls.

Despite that, it is hard to argue with the fact that the best horse has came out on top in  each of the past four years, so last year’s winner, the 127-rated Daryz holds standout claims of recording back-to-back wins. However, he is only 3-1 for a race over a month away, and if there is heavy ground and he is dealt a wide draw, could easily be a bigger price on the day.

The one that makes most appeal at the current odds is ITEM, widely available at a best-priced 12-1.

The Frankel colt arguably brings the best form of any runner into this race off the back of a Juddmonte International win over Almaqam, Constitution River and Ombudsman, and it is hard to know where his limitations lie, with his only defeat coming in a messy Derby in testing conditions.

It would be harsh to conclude from that effort that he didn’t stay a mile and a half. The race may have just been too tough a test too soon in his career and even if conditions are on the soft side on the first weekend in October in Paris, they are unlikely to be as testing as they were at Epsom.

The ground at York last time was certainly not fast and, like in the Dante and York Stakes over the same course and distance, he powered through the line over the extended ten furlongs.

A colt with a huge stride, he again did his best work late on last time, recording by far and away the fastest final furlong of the race.

Three-year-old colts have won two of the past three runnings of the Arc and Item looks overpriced of following Ace Impact and Daryz into the winners’ enclosure for Andrew Balding, who is having his best ever season. It is hard to see him going off anywhere near to 12-1 providing he does not get a horror draw.

Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe: back ITEM at a general 12-1.