Epsom Classic ante-post tips: 25-1 chance overpriced for Derby glory

Aidan O’Brien has dominated the Oaks for the past decade and a half. The Gosdens and Dermot Weld are the only other trainers to have won the fillies’ Classic in that time, with seven winners returning home to Ballydoyle.

It seems foolish then to look any further than the current market leader AMELIA EARHART, who, after winning the Cheshire Oaks in style, is the 9-4 market leader.

I must admit, I did think there was an overreaction in the market to I’m The One’s Chester defeat and thought she represented a bit of value at 10-1 for the Oaks after the race, but with her being ruled out of Epsom, so too another one of my fancies for the race in Francis Graffard’s Behrayna, Amelia Earhart looks the obvious selection.

The more I study the Oaks field, the more solid she looks. I’m not convinced, at this stage at least, that this is a vintage running of the race, and Amelia Earhart looks set to be perfectly suited by the contours of Epsom.

Precise, should she take her chance, surely has major question marks surrounding her stamina, and Cameo is seemingly further down the pecking order despite a stylish win last time.

As far as the leading British contenders are concerned, it is slim pickings. Venetian Lace should improve for this step up in trip but has come up short in each start since her maiden win, whilst Legacy Link has on obvious chance after her Musidora success but didn’t leave me particularly impressed, scrambling home to beat Felicitas and hanging whilst doing so, she needs to take another step forward and is as short as 5-1.

On pure form lines, Amelia Earhart shouldn’t be as short as 9-4 either, but she is a surefire stayer who is totally unexposed over middle distance and is bred for the job too, being by a wide-margin Derby winner and out of an Irish Oaks runner-up. It is very likely we have not yet seen the best of her and her underlying talent may well be born out courtesy of a likely stronger gallop at Epsom which can see her to better effect.

The nagging concern is that she is clearly not straightforward, with Aidan O’Brien running her in both blinkers and a hood at Chester. She handled the crowd on the Roodee well enough though, and if she takes to the occasion on the first Friday in June, she should be hard to beat.

The £1-million Betfred Derby follows 24 hours later, and it is a really intriguing renewal of the great race.

Benvenuto Cellini is a worthy favourite after his demolition job in the Chester Vase, but just how deep a renewal that was is hard to say. He could easily win the race, but his stablemate PIERRE BONNARD has already struck at Group One level and promises to be a much more formidable force once he is stepped up to a mile and a half, and possibly beyond.

A long-time favourite for this race, his two defeats this spring have seen him pushed out to 12-1 but he has had legitimate reasons for being beaten in both runs. Firstly, when clearly not fully tuned up for his reappearance in the Ballysax, and then most recently in the Cashel Palace Hotel Derby Trial Stakes last weekend, where he went down by a short head and was seemingly undone by a lack of pace.

With a stronger gallop and an extra two furlongs at Epsom, he can take another big step forward from that most recent effort and is another who’s pedigree screams ‘improvement with age’. Another son of top-class middle-distance sire and Derby winner Camelot, his dam Sultanina, by Derby hero New Approach, was also a Group One winner, but did not see a racecourse until she was four.

It would be no surprise should Pierre Bonnard be sent forward at Epsom in order to make use of his seemingly abundant stamina, a tactic which worked well for last year’s winner Lambourn.

Another highly-regarded colt that is a likely runner in this race and has been forgotten about in the market is Amo Racing’s ANCIENT EGYPT.

The son of Frankel fetched a mere 1.1m guineas as a yearling at Book 1 and has only recouped just over £54,000 so far, but he has won three of his four starts and should also be well suited by this extra two furlongs.

Trained by Charlie Johnston, who saddled Lazy Griff to finish second in the Derby last year, Ancient Egypt won his first two starts and was set a tougher assignment at the end of his juvenile campaign when lining up in the Royal Lodge Stakes.

His performance was disappointing, only beating one of his seven rivals home, but a mile was never going to be his optimum trip and that Group Two turned out to be a strong contest in any case.

Stepped up to ten furlongs for the Listed Newmarket Stakes on his reappearance this month, he put the race to bed nicely over some smart-looking types, winning by two lengths and looking strong as he hit the line, though the form is yet to be tested. 

From the family of Midday, this trip should elicit further progression, and he is reportedly set to gallop at Epsom next week to gain experience of Tattenham Corner. It is surely a matter of time before Kia Joorabchian's operation win a British Classic and, at 25-1, their expensive Derby entry looks too big to ignore.

Amelia Earhart at 9-4

Pierre Bonnard at 12-1

Ancient Egypt at 25-1