Crunching The Numbers: ten losers who should soon be winners

Altareq could hardly have shaped better on his first start for Jim Goldie after a year off, having previously been trained by John and Thady Gosden.

Only one of his 14 rivals was slower to reach 20mph in this ten-furlong contest and that meant the gelded four-year-old son of Frankel was playing catch-up from the start.

A “quiet” comeback run looked on the cards as he was still last of the 15 runners with three furlongs to run but he picked up in taking fashion from then on and boasted the best Finishing Speed Percentage of 107.65% to claim third. He was the only horse to dip under 12sec in the final furlong.

This was only his fourth run and, provided he progresses rather than regresses, then his new connections could be in for an exciting ride, having paid 95,000gns for him at the Sales in October. He ran off 80 here in what was a 0-100 race, so he will be eligible for much lesser races. 

Dark Ace was Ado McGuinness’s first runner at Newbury and the four-year-old gelding had an eventful time in this 6f sprint before keeping on to finish an unlucky third. 

He had his head up in the air as the stalls opened and exited the gates on two legs. Consequently, he was obliged to race at the back of the field and still only had one behind him two furlongs out. 

Dark Ace powered home from then on, being the only horse to run quicker than Par (11.02sec) in the penultimate furlong. 

He ended up being beaten less than a length behind the progressive winner, Far Above Dream, and would have been even closer had Brosay, who finished sixth, not stumbled and moved left-handed, taking him off his intended line. This in turn led to him brushing against another rival, too. 

Having previously won at Wolverhampton and Lingfield, Dark Ace was running off a mark of 88 here, but it is clearly not beyond him when getting the rub of the green. He registered the top speed of 41.13mph in the race - only Sahara King (see below) ran quicker at the two-day meeting - and it goes without saying he had had the best Finishing Speed Percentage of 103.67%. 

Having finished third on his debut at Leicester in April, Erudition went a place better over 7f at Newbury on Friday. And it can only be a matter of time before he is in the winner’s enclosure. 

He beat all bar Extremely Zain on this occasion, going down by just a neck to the odds-on favourite, who had bolted up by seven lengths on his debut at Newcastle. 

It might have been a different story, too, had he not been slow away (12th fastest to reach 20mph). He was 0.35sc slower than the winner through the first furlong but matched him, or was quicker, in each of the remaining furlongs. 

Still only 13th of the 14 runners with two to run, Erudition came home best of all under Billy Loughnane. This was an averagely run race, too, so he had to do things the hard way.

The 2024 Dewhurst runner-up, trained by Aidan O’Brien, disappointed in his three races last year but he’s getting back on track this season, running well in both his starts without being shown to best advantage. 

He had come home strongly under considerate handling when half a length second to his stablemate, The Lion In Winter, over a mile at Leopardstown last month, and this slowly run 7f affair – more than 2sec slower than the RaceiQ Par - was never going to show him in the best light, but he again stayed on stoutly to be beaten a neck by an inferior rival, Wannabe Royal, who simply got first run on him. 

Expanded was 0.83sec quicker than the winner (in the region of four lengths) over the final three furlongs, having been 0.77sec swifter than The Lion In Winter over the same distance at the end of his previous race. 

His future Group One entries are all over a mile, or ten furlongs, and the Wootton Bassett colt, out of a dam called Jigsaw, has a much bigger performance in him when all the pieces of the puzzle fall into place. 

The official ratings will point to him having something like a stone to find in the Queen Anne at Royal Ascot next month, but I’m not sure it is that straightforward. Bet365 have shunted him out to 100-1 in their ante-post market and he looks worth an each-way dabble. 

O’Brien’s only other logical runner in the race is The Lion In Winter, beaten about four lengths in the Lockinge. He’s quoted at 25-1, but Expanded is more interesting than him on various levels.

Frankies Dream has been anonymous since scoring at York almost a year ago but this staying-on third, upped to a mile for the first time, suggests he will soon be back in the winner’s enclosure. 

Sent off at 33-1, he surged from last to third in the closing stages under Paul Mulrennan, albeit without ever looking like quite scaling the mountain before him. 

His Finishing Speed Percentage was 107.36%, whereas the winner, Empire Of Light, boasted 102.33%. There is rarely such a gap between winners and placed horses. He also hit a top speed of 41.21mph, when the bulk of the runners did not manage to hit 40mph. 

I’d imagine trainer Jennie Candish will look for more opportunities over a mile going forwards, as he’s unexposed over the trip. 

Notable Speech was a decisive winner of the Lockinge at Newbury on Saturday but More Thunder, who chased him home, also emerged with huge credit. 

In what was a steadily run race, Notable Speech was the better placed of the pair when the tempo lifted, plus had the benefit of a previous run this year. 

More Thunder was beaten two lengths but that masks the fact he was just 0.01sec slower than his conqueror over the final half mile, with his Finishing Speed Percentage of 102.82% being marginally better. He is a horse who routinely deals in the best FSPs, seemingly over whatever distance he is asked to tackle. 

This was also More Thunder’s first start since the autumn, so he is entitled to be sharper for the run. 

Notable Speech is a best-priced 5-2 for the Queen Anne but has not shown his best form at the Royal Meeting for the past two years. More Thunder looks chunky at 7-1 and was unlucky at the meeting 12 months ago, when flying from 22nd to second in the last two furlongs of the Wokingham. 

The London Gold Cup nearly always represents strong form, with its roll of honour including Al Kazeem, Cannock Chase, Time Test, Defoe, Headman and Bay Bridge. 

This year’s edition also looks up to scratch, with Lost Boys and Sahara King dominating the closing stages. The winner is an improving horse in his own right but Sahara King, who was conceding him 6lb, looks the main one to take from the race. 

RaceiQ’s draw data suggested Lost Boys, in stall 2, had an instant 0.44 length advantage before the gates had opened and that transpired as Sahara King had little option but to settle in rear from his unfavourable high draw. 

To compound matters, Sahara King also had to challenge wide but the acceleration he showed in the eighth furlong (only horse to dip under 11sec) and ninth furlong (11.24sec, which was 0.3sec quicker than anything else) swept him to the front. He hit 41.19mph, the highest speed any horse reached over the two-day meting at Newbury.

Lost Boys managed to edge him out after being marginally quicker in the final furlong, though the result was only confirmed after a stewards’ enquiry after both had edged right, with “intimidation” also considered. The interference was deemed accidental. 

Sahara King will be close to a mark of 100 after this, but keep him in mind for all top-end handicaps. 

The Time Index of this ten-furlong maiden was 7.7, when the meeting average was 5.8, and run 2.28sec quicker than the RaceiQ Par. 

Salgados was responsible that, forcing a strong pace and recording “very fast” or “fast” sectionals for the first half mile as he opened up a clear lead. He was also the only horse to run to Par in furlong five - the opposition all ran very slow, being at least 0.58sec slower - and at that stage was about ten lengths clear. 

The picture changed over the next half mile as his big advantage was eroded, and when he dropped to third with a furlong to run it seemed likely he would fall away. However, the grey rallied tenaciously and was marginally quicker than the winner, Heyzoom, in the final 220 yards. 

It left a suspicion he would have won had he raced a bit more efficiently in the first half of proceedings. 

Salgados ended up having quite a hard race and will probably need a breather, but he’s a fascinating horse going forwards, including over further.

He’s a long strider, with his average here being 7.83 metres and as big as 8.33 metres. No other horse logged a longer stride over the two days at Newbury.

His low stride cadence (just 2.09 strides per second here, compared the winner’s 2.44) points to him being a stayer, with the early speed he showed a probable red herring. 

Silver Ghost went off favourite for this 7f handicap and backers of the grey filly must have been left frustrated as she went down by a neck. 

She travelled strongly at the back of the field but was still last of the 11 runners with two furlongs to run, and still had eight to pass in the final furlong, with Finley Marsh exploring a wide path to home. The combination almost pulled it off but ran out of road. 

Silver Ghost completed the final furlong in 11.64sec, whereas none of her rivals dipped under 12sec. She had also been fastest in the fifth and sixth furlongs, but simply had too much to do. 

She is habitually ridden this way, making her a hostage to fortune, but is clearly in great heart and looks one for the Buckingham Palace Handicap shortlist at Royal Ascot next month. She ran off 91 here and will be nudged up. The cut off point for the race last year was 94. 

Last, but not least, keep Xerling in mind for the weeks ahead. 

She made little impact in three starts last year, when a big price each time, but clearly better was expected here as she went off a well-backed 7-2. 

The money stayed in the bookies’ satchels, but the losses only look lent as she lost out after a good tussle with Namiid; the pair clocking some swift sectionals and pulling well clear of the rest. 

The Time Index was 9.6 when the meeting average was 7.7, being run 2.77sec quicker than the RaceiQ Par. The front two are both worth monitoring.