Racing TV's Harry Allwood shares his best bet for day one of The Showcase Meeting at Cheltenham on Friday. Make sure you also check out our race-by-race guide (which includes Andy Stephens' nap of the day) plus Dave Nevison's top tips. Best of luck! Black Poppy
Race: Foundation Developments Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle - 1.35pm, Friday.
Best odds: 8-1.
A gradual improver over hurdles before taking his form up a notch by winning at this track (over 2m1f on the New Course) where he was value for more than the winning margin suggests having been hampered at a crucial stage before powering clear on the run in to score with a bit to spare.
His performance was backed up by the clock, too, and he produced another career best on his next outing with victory in the Swinton Handicap Hurdle at Haydock where he again travelled powerfully before finding plenty under pressure.
That is probably the strongest piece of recent handicap form on offer here, and while he has a 5lb higher mark to contend with now, it's highly likely this seven-year-old has more to offer this term.
He was in the process of going close when falling on his seasonal debut two years ago, and he finished second following a 191-day break last season, so the lack of a recent run isn't a huge concern.
Another positive is that Kerry Lee has trained five winners from nine runners this season, and two of those were horses returning from an absence, the most recent being Nemean Lion who landed the Welsh Champion Hurdle this month on his first start since April.
Although the selection has won on soft, he appears to relish good ground, and the going stick reading is similar to what it was when he won at this track last season plus conditions are likely to dry out a shade more on Friday.
With softer ground likely throughout the winter, I wouldn't be surprised if this is one of a couple of early-season targets for Black Poppy, and he holds strong each-way claims.
More top tips for Cheltenham on Friday: