Cheltenham Festival: this 16-1 chance appeals after rout

The third Monday of the year has been dubbed Blue Monday and is said to be the most depressing day of the year, but I doubt anyone at the yard of Nicky Henderson is feeling down in the dumps.

Henderson starts the new week with four Cheltenham Festival favourites chalked up at 7/4 or shorter. Sir Gino, Constitution Hill, Jonbon and Lulamba are a star-studded quartet for Grade One contests at the meeting and between them have won 34 of their 37 races.

Whisper it quietly, but the overall British challenge at this year’s Festival is bubbling up nicely with The New Lion, Potters Charm, The Jukebox Man and Protektorat being other leading contenders for top honours.

Jonbon and Lulamba both shone over the weekend, when there were several other noteworthy performances. These days, we don’t just have to trust our eyes to assess the evidence presented before us because the RaceiQ data can help add flesh to the bones. Here’s what the metrics told us about five notable victors. 

Those who have taken part in the plunge on Lulamba winning the Triumph Hurdle will be on good terms with themselves after his slick British debut at Ascot. 

Backed down from 25-1 to 4-1 for the juvenile championship in recent weeks, he is now no bigger than 7-4. However, there must be an element of the layers having lopsided books and basically shutting up shop. 

There was never a moment when the good-looking bay did not look like winning, especially with his main market rival, Mondo Man, a high-class performer on the Flat who was in receipt of 10lb from him, failing to settle. 

To his credit, Mondo Man was still in with half a chance at the final flight, but Lulamba was not extended to fend him off by 3½ lengths, with Viyanni, a workmanlike winner on his hurdling bow at Market Rasen, another 2¾ lengths back in third. 

Nico de Boinville just nudged Lulamba along and did use his Pro-Cush. It’s likely there was plenty more under the bonnet. 

The winner clocked 35.27mph (only one horse on the card managed a quicker speed – Aston Martini in the handicap) and gained 9.54 lengths with his jumping, although that was in part due to some average leaping by several of his rivals. 

The winner was awarded a RaceiQ Jump Index score of 6.7 out of 10, albeit everything seemed to come easily to him and De Boinville did not feel the need to press any buttons  marked “let’s see what you can do”. 

Lulamba has usurped East India Dock as Triumph Hurdle favourite, although that horse, a useful stayer on the Flat, has almost certainly achieved more, and we know he’s an extremely proficient leaper. 

He got a Jump Index score of 7.3 when winning on his hurdling bow at Wincanton and was awarded a lofty 8.9 when bolting up at Cheltenham next time out. To add some context, Majborough only got an 8.1 when landing the Triumph Hurdle last season, when  Kargese (8.7) managed the best score in the race. 

So, in summary, Lulamba made a taking impression at Ascot but a best price of 7-4 for the Triumph looks skinny. At this stage, the 13-2 on offer about East India Dock makes much more appeal. 

Most eyes on Saturday were focused on the meetings at Ascot and Haydock but Just A Rose’s 26-length win on her debut was difficult to miss. It led to her being introduced at 16-1 for the Ryan  Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle, with some firms being even more cautious and going 12-1. 

The Paul Nicholls-trained six-year-old might not have beaten much but you can only beat what is put in front of you and she was in command a long way out. She got a 7.6 on the RaceiQ Jump Index and gained more than 19 lengths with her leaping, although that was again down in part to some messy stuff by her opponents (for instance the runner-up only got a score of 4.9). 

Perhaps more significant, Just A Rose won in a time of 4min 45.64sec, with Freddie Gingell being able to ease her up and offer some congratulatory pats down her neck in the closing stages. There were two handicap hurdles on the card over the same trip, and she stopped the clock by more than 3sec (about 12 lengths) and 5sec (about 20 lengths) quicker. 

She took some pulling up, too, as befits a horse who had won her only point-to-point, when winning at the main expense of the useful Country Mile, who has an official rating of 137. 

Just A Rose has a good pedigree – she’s by leading sire Saint Des Saints out of a dam who won over hurdles and fences in France – and has clearly blossomed during her 13 months off the track. Winning trainer Paul Nicholls told Racing TV viewers: “She's taken a long while to come right – we couldn't run her in the spring when we bought her as she had a few niggles. We gave her all the time she needed and Freddie was very impressed with her.” 

All in all, Just A Rose adds up to an intriguing prospect for her powerful yard and that 16-1 quote looks generous, given that few in this division (I’d make Sixandahalf an exception) have put their hands up. 

Just A Rose is likely to head next for the Jane Seymour at Sandown, and that’s a race that can have a significant say on Festival honours. Love Envoi (2022) and You Wear It Well (2023) won it en route to Cheltenham glory. 

This 1m7½f contest was supposed to be something of a cakewalk for Kargese, one of last season’s leading juvenile hurdlers, but the 2-5 favourite was too free on her first start for more than eight months and had nothing left in the locker for when it mattered most. 

Kargese was as short as 3-1 for the Mares’ Hurdle before this defeat but has now been shunted out to 8-1. She’s capable of better than this, but whether she wants another half-mile at Cheltenham is another matter. 

Take No Chances made the most of what turned out to be a good opportunity but the seven-year-old, trained by Dan Skelton, probably did not have to improve much to take the spoils. She’s been slashed to 14-1 for the Mares’ Hurdle but is an exposed 140-ish type performer who probably won’t see which way Brighterdaysahead goes in that race, should that rival turn up. 

I think it’s fair to say that Take No Chances has never jumped more efficiently than on Saturday – she got a Jump Index score of 9.2 – and this may end up being the highlight of her season. 

Keep an eye on Joyeuse, the grey mare who finished a place in front of her in a handicap at Cheltenham last month despite events conspiring against her. She was nudged up 4lb in the ratings for that effort, to a mark of 123, but still appeals as being on a lenient mark. Joyeuse could represent Nicky Henderson and JP McManus in what was the Betfair Hurdle next month but is going to need plenty of horses to drop away to make the cut. 

Even his biggest doubters, must have finally been won over by him. Haven’t they? Jonbon has now won 17 of his 20 races with his only defeats coming at the hands of Constitution Hill (second to him in the 2022 Supreme), El Fabiolo (second to him in the 2023 Arkle) and Elixier De Nutz (beaten a neck by him in the 2024 Clarence House after all but falling four out). 

To my eye, he never looked like being beaten at any stage on Saturday, with Nico de Boinville being positive on him from the outset and the horse relishing pulling his three rivals out of their respective comfort zones. 

Energumene lacked the power to get in a proper blow, while Edwardstone and Boothill seemed content for supporting roles almost from flagfall. It was all routine stuff, devoid of much tension. That was reflected by the in-running betting, with Jonbon never trading bigger than his starting price. 

The RaceiQ metrics were all standard stuff. Jonbon gained 3.72 lengths with his jumping and got a Jump Index score of 7.7. However, he did lose 4.14mph or more at five of the 13 fences (that’s quite a lot for a prospective 2m champion) with his worst jump being at the eighth. He lost 5.24mph there with a clumsy effort that got him only a 6 out of out of 10 on the Jump Index. 

And that’s the thing with Jonbon. For all his brilliance and wonderful record, he is still capable of throwing in a mistake or two. In essence, he’s capable of beating himself, as he did in last year’s Clarence House when it was staged at Cheltenham. 

His terrible blunder at the 11th fence that day (he lost 11.34mph and almost four lengths in one go) cost him the race, but his overall jumping that day also left plenty to be desired. He got a career-low Jump Index score of 5.7. 

That’s why he’s 5-4 to claim the 2m crown, rather than being an odds-on shot. It’s difficult to envisage Energumene turning the tables on him in March, whatever the ground is like, but Gaelic Warrior, El Fabiolo (if he can be revived) and Il Est Francais (if connections take the 2m route) may still have to be conquered. The cat-like Il Est Francais, in particular, would be a fascinating contender. His connections are torn between a tilt at the Champion Chase and Gold Cup. 

A 1,576-1 four-timer for Gordon Elliott at Navan on Saturday featured Three Card Brag gaining a belated first win over fences – and a first success of any kind for two years. 

That barren time masks the fact that he’s made the frame in Grade One races over hurdles and fences during that period, plus ran some excellent races in defeat behind such as Corbett’s Cross, Monty’s Star and Spillane’s Tower – who were three of last season’s top staying novice chasers. 

He had his sights lowered on Saturday and took full advantage, winning with something to spare under Danny Gilligan. 

The most impressive part of his performance was his jumping. He gained almost 23 lengths in the air and his Jump Index score of 8.1 was easily best of the 11 runners. 

He had previously not done himself justice in the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown, when asked to do too much, too soon, and remains an interesting horse for staying handicaps. The bookmakers have him prominent in their lists for the Ultima but Gordon Elliott suggested on Saturday that the eight-year-old may head straight to the Randox Grand National. 

Three Card Brag is likely to be allotted a mark in the high 140s and, as such, is likely to have a lovely racing weight at Aintree. He should have more to offer as when his stamina is properly tested and the general 33-1 on offer is well worth a second look. 

Protektorat is dynamic when he’s revved up and able to get a sniff of being the leader of the pack. 

He showed that when landing the Ryanair Chase last season and proved similarly unstoppable in the Fitzdares Fleur De Lys Chase. 

I’m not quite sure who was in charge – the horse or Harry Skelton – but the outcome was a 23-length drubbing of Djelo, with search parties needed for the other quartet. It was quite a reversal in form after Djelo has previously thumped the winner in the Peterborough Chase at Huntingdon. 

Protektorat was much more at home on this left-handed track and gained 9.42 lengths with his jumping. While we don’t have a standard time to measure him by, with Windsor resurfacing after a 20-year break, I think we can be assured that it was swift. He clocked a time almost 49 seconds quicker than Jingko Blue in the opening Grade Two contest and had just two furlongs less to cover. 

If the Skeltons can deliver Protektorat to the Festival in similar shape, then a bold defence of his Ryanair crown is on the cards. He’s a general 10-1 in a market dominated by Fact To File.