Cheltenham Festival: Lydia Hislop's tips for every race on day one

It’s not as straightforward as usual to identify Willie Mullins’ first string from a team of six here, as JP McManus’s retained rider Mark Walsh rides Mystical Power, first foal of 2016 Champion Hurdler Annie Power, whilst first jockey Paul Townend is on board Tullyhill.

Neither horse’s jumping is yet an asset, but Tullyhill’s is hesitant and wasteful – hence he’s been intensively schooled lately. He’ll also be on the pace, trying to control the race – as he has, unchallenged, the last twice in lesser events. In our eve-of-Cheltenham preview show, Ruby Walsh thought the pace would steady mid-race yet with prominent racers Tellherthename and (albeit now hooded) Mistergif and keen pair Asian Master and Kings Hill also on hand, I’m not so sure. I guess it’s possible Tullyhill could subdue them with a class edge, though.

Mystical Power’s buzzy temperament is also a risk amid the feverish pre-Supreme atmosphere, even though his trainer has done his best to dampen it via a first-time hood.

Instead, I’m inclined to split my stake between SLADE STEEL and JERIKO DU REPONET. The former boasts the most robust form in the field – his clear second to odds-on Gallagher Baring Bingham favourite Ballyburn at the Dublin Racing Festival – which suggested he is comfortable at two miles. Based on his strong early-season form, which placed an accent on stamina, I had doubted this.

Jeriko Du Reponet is a three-fold hunch for which I’ll get paid better now than all season due to well-publicised concerns about the wellbeing of the Nicky Henderson yard (as analysed in my previous column). Despite this doubt, plus lesser literal form and clock credentials, I’m backing looks, style and yard reputation – not my usual type of bet, but then neither is the price-tag. I like that he was capable of winning dirty at Doncaster last time – form that’s been franked.

Firefox boasts one verdict over Ballyburn, when holding a race-fitness edge, but has since under-performed at Naas. It’s credible that he’ll be better suited dropping back to two miles and that Gordon Elliott’s horses weren’t on their A-games at the time. If it is an end-to-end gallop, Favour And Fortune could hit the frame at a big price.

The declaration of Gaelic Warrior has added spice to this event, with a first-time hood into the bargain. Joe Chambers, racing manager to owners Susannah and Rich Ricci, reported on Monday’s Nick Luck Daily podcast that the new favourite had “worked and schooled in it earlier in the week, and apparently he went very well and very straight”.

In this case, Willie Mullins’ reasoning is there for all to see. Gaelic Warrior was edgy and keen before and during his humiliation by stablemate Fact To File at the Dublin Racing Festival. At last year, he wore ear-plugs – albeit they popped out on the way to post before being hastily bunged back in by Patrick Mullins – and behaved more calmly than for his previous start.

However, they’re cheekpieces and not a magic wand, therefore Paul Townend will still need to jam him down the inside and use other bodies to minimise his mount’s inveterate right-handed jumping that compromised his chances on his previous two expeditions at the ever-turning Old Course. He’s also got to prove he’s fully effective at two miles, albeit he is the proven class in the field.

Theories that he’ll make the running are surely wide of the mark, unless something unexpected prevents free-going Matata from getting there. With Quilixios, Hunters Yarn, Found A Fifty and perhaps even Authorised Speed (if his jumping holds) also likely to be at worst handy, this looks like a classic Arkle set-up whereby the winner will need a rare combination of pace and stamina.

Step forward FOUND A FIFTY, out-speeded late after a crawl for the Irish Arkle by Il Etait Temps. Now he’s a more mature character than when a raw novice hurdler last season, he shapes as though he’ll be better for taking a lead. Setting his own dawdle hasn’t suited him the last twice. It’s also possible this tactical tweak will offset his own tendency to jump occasionally right – admittedly a doubt. Plus, in a race that will require fine judgement, he boasts the services of Jack Kennedy.

Il Etait Temps must prove he’s as good at Cheltenham as Leopardstown but you can excuse both his previous Festival starts in isolation – too keen in the 2022 Triumph; too far back and rushed into contention in the 2023 Supreme. He’s a better chaser than he was a hurdler, too. Yet unlike the favourite, he’s clearly not yet considered Closutton Elite by his trainer – a comment that applies tenfold to Hunters Yarn, who was barely making the team boat at one point.

You can make a numbers argument for him – and plenty did on the preview circuit, generating a bandwagon market move. Yet he needs not just to reproduce his Fairyhouse novice-chase form in the heat of this Grade One but better it – and he can magic a terrible blunder from nowhere.

Leading British hope JPR One looks about half a stone off the requisite level with no obvious way to bridge it, whilst mistakes are likely to be the undoing of experienced but guessy jumper Master Chewy. My Mate Mozzie was either flattered to finish so close to Found A Fifty at Christmas or poorly positioned in a steadily run race, depending on how you assess him. I think a sharp examination suits best and this ain’t that. 

Making a forward move from three out and pressing on with eventual third MONBEG GENIUS entering the straight, THE GOFFER did a shade too much too soon prior to fading into fourth in a deep edition of last year’s Ultima, fought out by two of this year’s Gold Cup candidates.

That form, last season’s signing-off Bet365 Chase fourth and his fifth in the Kerry National on penultimate start all give him a big chance from a 2lb lower mark than last year.

The horse who finished in front of him has first-time cheekpieces for a recognised target trainer and was an excellent third in the Coral Gold Cup in December, but must bounce back from a lesser effort at Kelso recently albeit off a long absence. Split your stake between them; a bet on the latter might also take the edge off .

The absence of reigning champion Constitution Hill robs this year’s Festival of a modern superstar and last year’s runner-up State Man of an interesting re-match. The latter, an eight-time Grade One winner in his own right, has never missed a beat this season and could not be turning up to Cheltenham in better shape. He’d be a worthy name on the trophy, potentially bringing Willie Mullins his fifth Champion Hurdle success.

His straightforwardness, the dead-eight field and the likely race set-up mean I’ve found it impossible to chisel out an angle I can believe in. I like the supplementary entry for Iberico Lord, whom I suspect would still be well ahead of his mark even after a 9lb rise for winning the Betfair Hurdle. He gave the smart L’Eau Du Sud a three-length start approaching the final hurdle and still ran him down by two-and-a-quarter lengths at Newbury.

He'll get the soft ground he needs but will he get an end-to-end pace? I think not and that will render him vulnerable. Front-running duties could even fall to State Man unless Not So Sleepy or Luccia care to make it – and if they do, it might not be with strong conviction. Stepping down in trip, Irish Point will need to race handily but not overdo it, so this is not akin to a typical big-field handicap scenario. At least the next-in is as uncomplicated as the favourite and should settle.

Nemean Lion excelled in a strongly run Kingwell last time, conceding 3lb to Colonel Mustard – for whom first-time blinkers and pick-up-the-pieces tactics might still not be enough to hit the frame. So perhaps chief winner-chasing duties fall to Zarak The Brave, who recovered some of his form last time. Maybe. I just can’t get pumped up about it.

This race hinges on whether Lossiemouth stays. She was all speed and class when bounding away by nine-and-a-half lengths in a steadily run International (chorus: Bula) Hurdle in January. Yet she comfortably won a Triumph Hurdle 12 months ago despite getting lit up from being carried wildly right at the third flight by the errant Hypotenus.

That she won over 2m1f on the New Course as a juvenile despite things going wrong strongly suggests she should stay 2m4f on the Old Course, even though .

Given Willie Mullins seems to have slapped a hood on virtually anything with a heartbeat among his Festival declarations so far, perhaps it’s surprising this filly isn’t wearing one for her new distance frontier? But she settled so beautifully last time, why change a winning act? The likeliest outcome is that she wins even if the distance isn’t her optimum.

Just in case, I’m happy with my 33/1 ante-post position on MARIE’S ROCK, winner of this race two seasons ago. She’s knocking on a little and isn’t the most straightforward – she wears her head in a jaunty fashion – but this larger field will suit her better than any race she’s encountered to date this season and she boasts a calibre of form at this trip of which Lossiemouth must prove she is capable.

I’m going to supplement that position with an each-way bet in the ‘Betting Without Lossiemouth’ market on her stablemate GALA MARCEAU. Sure, I’ve got to forgive an uncharacteristic poor run last time behind Hispanic Moon – that’s why I’m getting 11/1. It was the heaviest ground she’s yet encountered and Ruby Walsh indicated on Monday’s show that Willie Mullins now believes she wasn’t quite fit enough for that Punchestown outing. Whatever, it was disappointing.

However, she shaped well when conceding weight to stablemate Ashroe Diamond on seasonal debut at Doncaster and I believe she’ll be better suited to a longer trip in Grade One company at a track like Cheltenham than that strong-travelling (and admittedly slick-jumping) rival, first-time hood for her or not. Gala Marceau chased Lossiemouth home in the Triumph and can do again here, hence the appeal of the ‘Without’ market.

Love Envoi was well-positioned and potentially flattered by her second to Honeysuckle in this race last year; her first-time cheekpieces suggests Harry Fry is reaching deeply into the barrel, if not quite yet scratching the bottom, after an unconvincing campaign.

This might be Echoes In Rain’s final start before retiring to stud but the reinstatement of her hood – last worn in the Ascot Gold Cup – won’t help sufficiently for the final climb.

You Wear It Well, Telmesomethinggirl and unbeaten but inexperienced Langtry Lady are yet to definitively prove they’re this class.

I’m a tad disappointed Olly Murphy hasn’t reinstated the cheekpieces Roaring Legend used to wear on the Flat for James Ferguson and perhaps Tuesday’s ground might be softer than ideal, but I can’t get away from the impression ROARING LEGEND made on me – with this race in mind – on his first two outings over hurdles.

Having learned about the horse when beaten at Market Rasen last time out (keen early, kicking on two out and reeled in), I’m hoping Sean Bowen will revert to more patient tactics in what should be a strongly run race. He was a strong stayer over 12 furlongs on the Flat and I think he’s much better than his mark of 122.

The other horse I’ve had on my mind for this race since he finished a staying-on fourth after being poorly positioned in a steadily run Leopardstown affair over Christmas is BATMAN GIRAC. Again, with any number of horses looking to head to the fore here – including plenty at the top of the market – I like his run style.

Both Corbetts Cross and Embassy Gardens wear a hood for the first time in race likely to be dominated for as long as possible by Mr Vango – a poignant runner for Sara Bradstock following the death of her husband Mark. Together, they won the 2015 Cheltenham Gold Cup with boldly campaigned but fragile novice Coneygree.

Mr Vango, a thorough stayer in the making, dons first-time cheekpieces after his much-improved win at Exeter less than two-and-a-half weeks ago. Apple Away is likely to be prominent, as she needs a test even at this trip and helped force an unsustainable pace in the Warwick Grade Two eventually won by Turners favourite Grey Dawning. She then proved a sitting duck at Ascot, passed by both Henry’s Friend and Kilbeg King in the straight.

The Irish raiders boast better form. Embassy Gardens has taken well to fences, jumping fluently, but he may be one-dimensional and has shown signs of being a lover (not a fighter) when having to battle. Corbetts Cross is ponderous over his fences, so his headgear is interesting for a trainer, Emmet Mullins, who deploys such aids adroitly. He was brought down when colliding mid-air with a rival last time, which is hardly ideal.

I’m going to stick with my season-long opinion that SALVADOR ZIGGY is the ideal type for this race. As Ruby Walsh pointed out back in Show 2 of the Road To Cheltenham series, I have got to forgive his run in America last October and the horse needs to have fully recovered from such a bad bleed.

However, he has clearly been on target for some time – Jack Kennedy confirmed as much when appearing as a guest on our show on Thyestes day at Gowran in January.

Having finished second in last season’s Pertemps off top-weight and boasting a high level of form in open handicaps with his Kerry National second, Salvator Ziggy could not have a more archetypal profile to thrive in this race. He also has a top-class amateur, already a Festival winner, in Rob James on board.

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