Cheltenham Festival: Who will sparkle in the Arkle?

There was a time, not so long ago, when five-year-olds were rampant in the Arkle at the  Cheltenham Festival.

Half of the winners between 1998 and 2006 were from that age group courtesy of Champleve, Flagship Uberalles, Well Chief and Voy Por Ustedes. They might have had a fifth had Frozen Groom not fallen three out when moving well, in the lead, in the 2000 renewal, and Twist Magic was also bang in contention when departing in the closing stages in 2007.

The triumphant quartet were blessed with plenty of ability but also benefited from significant weight-for-age allowances, designed to compensate younger horses for their immaturity when taking on their elders. The allowances were intended to make for a level playing field, but the scales had been tipped disproportionately in favour of the youngest runners in the race.

For instance, Champleve was getting 8lb from Hill Society when fending off that horse’s late surge by short head in 1998. And the brilliant Well Chief was getting 4lb from his elders when taking the honours in 2004, although he needed all of that to repel Kicking King by a length in a vintage edition.

Two more five-year-olds made the frame in 2007 but by now the British Horseracing Board, the ruling body at the time, were close to moving the goal posts.

The following month it was announced that weight allowances for four-year-old and five-year-old chasers would be reduced following a review, with a consequence being that five-year-olds would no longer receive any weight-for-age allowance in the Arkle.

“Their strike rate has risen over the last few years to a level which had become unacceptable,” Phil Smith, Head of Handicapping, said at the time, although he was talking about the general picture, not just the Cheltenham feature.

Since then, only ten five-year-olds have run in the Arkle - they have not been represented at all in ten editions since 2010 -  and all of them have been beaten, with Fakir D’Oudairies, the runner-up in 2020, faring best. They have had several well-fancied contenders over that time,  although none have gone off shorter than 11-4.

This year, we looked to have two outstanding candidates in Sir Gino and Majborough. It promised to be an epic England v Ireland and Nicky Henderson v Willie Mullins confrontation.

But all that evaporated on February 10 when Sir Gino was ruled out for the season.

So now it is up to Majborough to become the first of his generation to win in 19 years? Here’s a guide to all the leading contenders for a race sponsored by My Pension Expert.

Highest hurdle rating: 150. Festival form: 1. Odds: 4-7.  

This imposing gelding has had the stamp of a three-mile chaser since the day he walked into Closutton and his trainer has carefully juggled his innate ability with long-term promise. Consequently, he’s had just four career runs and the surface has barely been scratched. 

The gently, gently approach did not deter Mullins from letting Majborough take his chance in the Triumph Hurdle and his imposing young starlet gained a battling triumph, gained at the main expense of Kargese. Sir Gino was a notable absentee, of course, and would himself beat Kargese (by a bit further) at Aintree the following month. 

That was a case of “job done” for Majborough and Mullins put him away, his mind no doubt already working backwards from the 2026 or 2027 Cheltenham Gold Cup. 

Not since 2004 has a Triumph Hurdle winner (Made In Japan) gone over fences the following season but, then again, few have been in the mould of Majborough. 

You could have forgiven Mullins for picking a humble first assignment over fences for him but instead he picked out a beginners’ chase at Fairyhouse he has won in recent years with Blue Lord and El Fabiolo (multiple Grade One winers over fences) and pitched in two classy/more experienced hurdlers against him in the shape of Tullyhill and Asian Master. 

The trio had a good scrap but Majborough was in a league of his own by the finish, sprinting clear in the closing stages after a superb round of jumping. 

Majborough was tremendously efficient in negotiating the ten fences, reflecting by the RaceiQ data. He lost no more than 3mph at seven of the ten fences (to add some perspective, Sir Gino did that only once over 12 fences at Kempton) and his scores at the last four fences ranged between 9.2 and 10 (Sir Gino did not get more than an 8.3). Maximums are a rarity in any race, not least by a horse making his chasing debut. His overall Jump Index score was measured at 9.4. 

Tullyhill and Asian Master have since been placed in another beginners’ chase at Fairyhouse behind another Mullins, inmate, Mistergif, who collared the former late on. 

It was a similar story for Majborough in the Irish Arkle when he again jumped well and gained a commanding nine-length win over Touch Me Not. 

There was the odd small blemish along the way, but he never looked like falling and this is a big horse with feet as quick as James Devine, so do not be deceived into thinking he lost much momentum or ground. 

The winning time was 1.5sec under standard and was 2.2sec quicker than the Listed handicap chase over the same trip later in the afternoon, in which the 148-rated My Mate Mozzie was a seven-length runner-up.

The RaceiQ metrics reveal he gained 8.81 lengths with his jumping, and he got a 9.6 on the Jump Index, to follow the 9.3 he was awarded on debut.

He gained between 0.9 lengths and 1.49 lengths at seven of the 11 obstacles, and on seven occasions his speed recovery time was 0.4sec or less. In other words, he is the epitome of “landing running”.

Touch Me Not had given L’Eau Du Sud a scare in the Henry VIII Novces’ Chase on his previous start despite an awful blunder at halfway. He jumped impeccably here but simply could not keep up in the closing stages.

Majborough now has an official ratings of 162, and clearly he is well up to the standard of winning an average Arkle. Mullins has won six of the past ten renewals of the race. 

Highest hurdle rating: 138. Festival form: 2. Odds: 4-1. 

In the absence of Sir Gino, he has become Britain's No 1 hope. And he's got off to a flawless start, winning key trials along the way.

He impressed when winning by ten lengths on his chasing bow at Stratford (in a handicap off a mark of 138) and then dazzled in a Grade Two at Cheltenham’s November Meeting, barely coming off the bridle after tanking through proceedings. The form has taken some knocks but L’Eau Du Sud won by 11 lengths without turning a hair. 

The grey had to roll up his sleeves when landing the Grade One Henry VIII Novices’ Chase at Sandown next time, at the main expense of Touch Me Not, and then fended off Rubaud in the Kingmaker at Warwick. He looked like winning the last-named by a wide margin, but was being closed down at the finish. Maybe he was idling, maybe Dan Skelton had left something to work on.

His jumping has been consistently solid. His RaceiQ Jump Index scores have been 8.4, 8.4, 8 and 8.7. 

The winning time at Sandown was only 3.23sec slower than Jonbon (carrying 3lb more) clocked when landing the Tingle Creek later in the afternoon. 

Another tick for L’eau Du Sud is his ability to cope with hurly burly and strongly-run races. He was runner-up in both the Betfair Hurdle and County Hurdle last season before finishing a close fifth in the Scottish Champion Hurdle. 

Highest hurdle rating: 139. Festival form: 5. Odds: 10-1. 

Two wins from 16 races indicates that Mistergif has his limitations, although he ran creditably at the big Festival meetings in the spring of last year and was a taking winner on his chasing bow at Fairyhouse when pouncing from off the pace. 

Mistergif collared Tullyhill and Asian Master, who had previously filled the same places behind Majborough at the same venue when conceding 6lb. So, the form has some substance. 

The RaceiQ metrics also relay just how well Mistergif took to fences. He gained 16.77 lengths with his leaping, and got a Jump Index score of 8.9, with his speed recovery times making for impressive reading. 

His overall profile lacks the wow factor of others, but it’s been a case of so far, so good. 

Highest hurdle rating: 151. Festival form: 3. Odds: 16-1. 

He was one of last season’s top novice hurdlers, being placed at Cheltenham, Aintree and Punchestown in the spring. However, those defeats did point to him being something of a “nearly horse”. 

The beginners’ chase he won with ease on his debut over fences at Down Royal in November has been won by numerous good horses from his stable (the likes of Delta Work, Samcro, Envoi Allen, Mighty Potter and Found A Fifty) and his subsequent narrow defeat in the Drinmore, at Fairyhouse, looked a case of what might have been as he was patiently ridden in a muddling race. 

He was betrayed by sloppy jumping when a five-length runner-up to Ile Atlantique at Naas on his penultimate start and could only finish a distant third in the Irish Arkle last time. Gordon Elliott has suggested he will head the handicap route.

Highest hurdle rating: 143. Festival form: 3. Odds: 16-1. 

Fences seem to have helped this smart bumper/hurdle performer take his form to another level, which has always seemed likely given his physical attributes. 

He impressed when winning an 18-runner beginners’ chase at Navan (2m 4f) in early December and built on that when landing a Grade Two prize dropped back to 2m at Naas last time, albeit he was helped by Firefox jumping scruffily and Inthepocket being below par. 

His jumping has been polished and neither race has got anywhere near the bottom of him, but then came a subdued effort in the Irish Arkle, which suddenly leaves him looking vulnerable. 

He twice made the frame in Grade One contests over hurdles last term, with his best effort being when touched off by Readin Tommy Wrong in the Lawlor’s Of Naas. He followed that with a distant third to Ballyburn at Cheltenham before failing to make much impact at Aintree and Punchestown. 

Highest hurdle rating: 125. Festival form: --. Odds: 16-1. 

This Gigginstown Stud-owned six-year-old did not set the world alight in four runs over hurdles but he was unlucky not to win his point-to-point (fell when in command) and is clearly a much better chaser. 

He confirmed the promise of his debut over fences when an exhilarating all-the-way winner of a Grade Two contest at Punchestown in November, and he ran a cracker when a 3¾-length runner-up to L’Eau Du Sud in the Henry VIII at Sandown, before chasing home Majborough in the Irish Arkle. 

His fast jumping has been one of his big assets but he walked through the sixth at Sandown and then was perhaps understandably hesitant at the next. In the circumstances, he did well to get so close. 

He's going to find himself in a hot renewal but it’s not easy to understand why he’s 33-1, when L’eau Du Sud is only 14-1. 

Highest hurdle rating: 138. Festival form: 6. Odds: 20-1. 

He looked to have the world at his feet this time last year but the past 12 months have not been straightforward. 

The big bay scrambled home when an odds-on shot on Festival Trials Day and ended the campaign with a weary sixth in the Albert Bartlett. 

This campaign began in worrying fashion when he was pulled up at Kempton with a heart issue but he put that behind him when beating three rivals in the Lightning Novices’ Chase at Windsor. 

His jumping was sound at Windsor, albeit his size can make him a look a little awkward. Whetger the Arkle would be a good fit for him is questionable. If he were mine, I’d be working backwards from the 2026 Ryanair Chase. 

Highest hurdle rating: 163. Festival form: 1. Odds: 20-1. 

He's a classy customer who would another layer of intrigue if lining up, but Willie Mullins has initimated that he will skip Cheltenham with the 2m 4f novice chase option now a shut door.

It's likely he's been left in here as cover, in case the principals all start suddenly melting away.

He's a three-time Grade One-winning hurdler and has also struck at the highest level over fences, landing the Faugheen Novice Chase at Limerick over Christmas. But it's been established that 2m is not his optimum trip.

Highest hurdle rating: 146. Festival form: --. Odds: 20-1. 

Nicky Henderson is not keen on giving his horses their chasing debuts at Cheltenham, so it was something of a tip in itself that he gave Jango Baie his first taste of the bigger obstacles at Prestbury Park in December.

The now six-year-old must have been pleasing his trainer with his schooling sessions and his accurate jumping was a feature as he gained a fluent 6½-length win over Springwell Bay, with Caldwell Potter beaten an aggregate of 13 lengths into third.

He got an 8.8 out of 10 on the RaceiQ Jump Index, gaining 10.64 lengths in the air.

Jango Baie was getting 8lb from the runner-up, though, and he was probably running over his optimum trip of 2m 4f. Dropping back to 2m would not be an obvious move, especially after his susequent near-miss in the Scilly Isles at Sandown.

Highest hurdle rating: 149. Festival form: 4. Odds: 25-1. 

The eight-year-old would be the rarest of things if successful: a second-season chaser to win the Arkle. 

That is a little misleading as he only ran once last season before being sidelined. And, in hindsight, it was handy that he came up short against Facile Vega in that beginners’ chase at Navan. 

Inthepocket showed no ill effects from a year on the sidelines when trouncing the useful Farren Glory by 15 lengths at Wexford in late October, looking every inch a top prospect who could belatedly build on his Grade One novice hurdle exploits in 2023 (fourth in the Supreme before winning at Aintree). He was quoted at about 8-1 for the Arkle after that success. 

However, he hung badly at Naas last time, when his jumping was also ragged. The writing was on the wall for him from some way out and he ended up being a distant third behind Ile Atlantique and Firefox. 

Maybe he was off colour or just had an off day. Or maybe his previous issues are not completely behind him. His next outing is likely to tell us more. 

Highest hurdle rating: --. Festival form: --. Odds: 66-1. 

This imposing gelding provided a feelgood factor over Christmas when belying odds of 150-1 on his first start under Rules in a beginners' chase at Leopardstown.

Few people, other than those closest to him, saw that shock win coming, as he had been purchased for just £3,000 and previously been beaten in three point-to-point contests.

He won on merit and the dream is alive, although that Leopardstown form looks shaky and he has since been well held in the Irish Arkle. A path to handicaps may be more sensible.