The 2021 Cheltenham Festival favourites: Will they be bankers or blowouts?

How many favourites will oblige at this year’s Cheltenham Festival?

A note of caution is always advised at this biggest of meetings and a good few accumulators hit the buffers last season as Benie Des Dieux, Carefully Selected, Defi Du Seuil, Tiger Roll and Paisley Park were all turned over at odds-on.

Over the past five years, the overall performance of favourites, joint-favourites or co-favourites at the Cheltenham Festival has improved slightly, with 27.3% winning as opposed to 25.9% over the last 10 years. Favourites of any description have performed 7% below market expectation.

The competitiveness of the Cheltenham Festival is seen when comparing the general performance of favourites, joint favourites and co-favourites in all jumps races in Britain over the last five years. Overall, 35% of those favourites have won – a significantly higher percentage than during Cheltenham week.

Here's a closer look at some of the big fancies this time.

Odds: 5-4. Race: Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle

He has the most compelling form credentials by far as a two-time Grade One winner with Festival form already in the book when second in last season’s Weatherbys Champion Bumper.

He would have enjoyed the strong test at the trip that this race traditionally provides, but only eight runners have been declared in one of the smallest fields in recent years. That said, potential rivals look fairly thin on the ground.

Metier is next best in betting but the small field may prove more of an issue for this headstrong sort. He finished with loads in the tank in the Tolworth, but remarkably not one of the 22 horses he has beaten over jumps has won subsequently while trainer Harry Fry has one winner from 35 Cheltenham Festival runners so far - 66% below market expectation.

Verdict: Banker

Odds: 1-2. Race: Sporting Life Arkle Challenge Trophy

Last season’s Sky Bet Supreme winner has looked flawless over fences and cannot be opposed here - and additionally so now after the unfortunate withdrawal of Energumene in what promised to be a thrilling clash.

Allmankind is an admirable type and also unbeaten over fences. He has dispatched smart horses in his three chase starts and is not dismissed lightly, but there’s more than a nagging doubt about making all in an Arkle over these fences and you suspect that he might be up against a genuine superstar here.

Verdict: Banker

Odds: 6-5. Race: Close Brothers Mares’ Hurdle

Concertista has run excellent races on both visits to the Cheltenham Festival and prevailed by 12 lengths in last year’s Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle.

Although she’s now had seven starts for Willie Mullins after six for Christophe Ferland in France, you feel this mare is still improving after only breaking her maiden for current connections at the Festival 12 months ago. She has enjoyed a perfect preparation in an unblemished season this time.

Her form is not as good as main market rival Roksana – even if that is mostly over further than this distance - and you could feasibly argue that the price differential is too great between them. But Mullins has a fantastic record in this race with runners after a break and this test looks absolutely ideal for Concertista. The confidence behind her is telling, even against an admirable rival and former winner of this race.

Verdict: Banker

Odds: 4-7. Race: Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase

Monkfish has enjoyed an outstanding campaign over fences and last season’s Albert Bartlett winner is readily expected to extend his unbeaten Cheltenham Festival record.

While the likes of Shishkin and Envoi Allen have plotted particularly quiet paths to the Festival, you can’t quite say the same about Monkfish after starting his campaign over 2m5f and then subsequently contesting a brace of Grade One assignments. He is just proving that much better than the opposition currently and this step back up to three miles should additionally suit.

Eklat De Rire is unbeaten over fences, has ostensibly more to give and represents a new rival for Monkfish, but after a perfect preparation the Willie Mullins horse is expected to oblige as one of the strongest favourites of the week.

Verdict: Banker

Odds: Evens. Race: Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase

Chacun Pour Soi has enjoyed a fine campaign over fences and he should add gloss to an unbeaten season with victory in the Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase.

After a surprise defeat on his return last season, connections started him earlier this term and that move has paid dividends. He has enjoyed a good preparation against inferior opposition, and there is nothing in opposition here that looks particularly menacing.

Altior is a two-time winner of this race and the first-time cheekpieces are interesting, but he needs to bounce back and the speed of his jumping still raises concerns, while the admirable Politologue won a substandard renewal last year.

This race looks to have plenty of pace on offer, which will suit the fluent-jumping Chacun Pour Soi. He should get the perfect tow into this and, at the prices, is one of the more appealing shorter-priced favourites of the week.

Verdict: Banker

Odds: Evens. Race: Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase

The French challenger landed this race by a yawning 17 lengths last season and, still only seven, looks one of the more solid short-priced plays on paper.

Yet he clearly relished the testing conditions last year that he’s unlikely to encounter this time, while he was a little disappointing at this track in November and has not run since. Moreover, jockey Felix de Giles has said that some of trainer Cottin's horses had been ill in a recent interview.

These factors are somewhat mitigated by the opposition, with Tiger Roll the main market rival again and another year older – although the better ground will definitely help him this time – while Potters Corner was disappointing on his last outing and the turnaround between this race and the Randox Grand National - his principal target – is relatively short.

In all likelihood, Easysland should win and Cottin has issued positive bulletins about his star’s wellbeing, but there are enough doubts to steer clear at the price.

Verdict: Blowout

Odds: 4-6. Race: Marsh Novices’ Chase

The unbeaten star has won impressively at the past two Cheltenham Festivals and, despite the very late change of stable bringing an element of the unknown to his preparation, he is expected to prove much too good once again.

The move to Henry de Bromhead’s yard from Gordon Elliott this month is hardly ideal, but the new trainer offered a positive recent update on the wellbeing and schooling of his new charge since arriving in Knockeen. “He charges about the place,” said De Bromhead.

Even if Envoi Allen does not quite run up to his best, the opposition does not look deep. The fluent-jumping, Grade One-winning Shan Blue is interesting and Chatham Street Lad made quite an impression at this track in December, but the Cheveley Park Stud-owned star is not expected to have too much hassle under regular rider Jack Kennedy and there’s probably some scope in his current price.

Verdict: Banker