Cheltenham Festival: Lydia Hislop's selections for Day Two

Harry Cobden, Nico de Boinville: you are surrounded. Please dismount your horses and put your hands up. Step away slowly, no sudden movements. Resistance is futile. There are eight runners in this race and Willie Mullins trains five of them; the other is 125/1+ outsider The Grey Man.

History has also shown it’s a fool’s errand to take on Willie Mullins’ first string in this race and the Supreme with a stablemate from lower in the pecking order. Whereas the hierarchy was not clear in Tuesday’s opener due to Mark Walsh’s retainer with JP McManus, there is no doubting the top dog in this race. All Closutton’s other novices have been satellites orbiting Ballyburn.

With Caldwell Potter missing the Festival due to his sale and resultant yard transfer, the Gallagher favourite arrived with what was then the clear best novice-hurdling form in the shape of his DRF success last month. It was further enhanced on Tuesday when runner-up Slade Steel took the Supreme.

As for Ballyburn himself, he jumped slickly towards the fore of a strongly run two-miler at Leopardstown before surging clear. The likeliest scenario to compromise him would be holding up in a steadily run race, as happened when Supreme third Firefox beat him at Fairyhouse in early December – although admittedly when the favourite was conceding race fitness.

However, this race has the complication of very testing ground, so Paul Townend won’t be seeking to force the issue too early.

This intermediate trip should suit Danny Mullins’ mount Predators Gold, who ran too freely over 2m6f at the DRF. Arguments have also been made at fancy prices for both unexposed stable companions Mercurey – a second-season novice, who can make the running and is therefore perhaps the likeliest leader – or Jimmy Du Seuil to take a large step forward and hit the frame here – the former by Danny Mullins in last Thursday's. 

But anything other than victory for Ballyburn would be a huge disappointment for the camp, who hit three of their four Grade One targets on the first day.

That leaves only the chief home defence of Handstands and Jingko Blue, hailing from yards who began the Festival in starkly contrasting form. Whereas Ben Pauling continues to perform strongly this season and saw Twig achieve a career-best second in the Ultima, there has been a well-publicised glitch in the usually reliable Seven Barrows service. Nicky Henderson fielded six runners at the Festival yesterday and five were pulled up – including Iberico Lord, who should have loved underfoot conditions in the Champion Hurdle.

It wouldn’t surprise me if he withdrew Jingko Blue, at least partly due to the ground. His best form has come on good-to-soft and he over-raced a tad when winning at Sandown last time. Pauling has retained Cobden’s services for Handstands after they successfully teamed up at Huntingdon, where the winner travelled powerfully and jumping immaculately. I could see him hitting a place or even finishing second. He’s more straightforward than Mullins’ second and third strings.

As discussed on the no-show of Broadway Boy due to a dirty scope has impacted this race beyond the immediate disappointment for his connections and fans. His presence would have assured a strong end-to-end gallop, dragging Stay Away Fay into the race for longer and testing the unknown of Fact To File’s stamina.

Last year’s Albert Bartlett hero is a thorough stayer. He was unsuited last time out by an uneven tempo against more experienced rivals in the Cotswold Chase, when he became outpaced as the sprint began from the bypassed final fence prior to rallying up the hill.

It’s a good thing Paul Nicholls decided to roll with first-time cheekpieces, as that should encourage Stay Away Fay to spend less time in the air over his fences and concentrate his mind if – as he surely must – Harry Cobden concludes he’ll have to be relatively positive. I’m going to risk sticking with him, albeit with less conviction than I had envisaged.

Supplementary entry American Mike has led in the past but not when stepping up to this trip last time. Rachael Blackmore is hardly likely to help Cobden on neat-jumping Monty’s Star – a classic Henry de Bromhead novice-chasing project, so worthy of much respect, who should race handily enough. That team are already having a good meeting, so expect him to run well.

On the new Closutton Messiah-In-Waiting, Mark Walsh will be able to observe these goings-on. He’s on a top-class prospect – Fact To File’s time trial against Gaelic Warrior was quicker at all stages than the competitive course-and-distance 2m5f handicap and he wasn’t stopping at the line – but there are some flaws.

He jumps right – not ideal on a left-handed track that’s always on the turn – and he hung persistently left up the hill when second in last year’s Champion Bumper, albeit I’d be inclined to put that down to immaturity rather than anything more concerning. He was also beaten, admittedly on seasonal debut, by American Mike when conceding track position in a steadily run race.

Yet ultimately my concern is how speedy he is and his pedigree does not scream stamina either. Even without Broadway Boy, the ground could turn this into a slog and Walsh will have to engage with that at some point. These details loom large with an odds-on shot.

I was all set to back Doddiethegreat here, but now find that logically impossible after the first day at the Festival endured by the Seven Barrows team. This only amplified their downturn in form in the preceding fortnight.

This horse had shaped really well when fourth in a deep edition of the Betfair Hurdle, that form already franked when third-placed Faivoir was just touched off in last Saturday’s Imperial Cup. Doddie was dawdling out the back at Newbury but came home strongly despite some traffic problems in the straight, indicating he needed to step back up in trip.

I will kick myself if he shrugs off the yard’s current malaise, in the way Luccia was able to do when third in the Champion Hurdle, but – again – Henderson might yet pull him out as the horse has hitherto been kept away from testing ground.

Instead, I’m going to side with MIGHT I, who hasn’t taken to fences this season but finished an excellent fourth in a stacked edition of the Martin Pipe last season from a 3lb higher mark. He handles testing ground.

Given Dan Skelton reported on last Thursday’s Road show that, after suffering from an ulcer problem (albeit not acute), the horse had finally been pleasing him in recent days, it may not be wise to dismiss last year’s winner Langer Dan. However, unlike last year when he was hiding his light under the bushel of graded races, he has shaped like a bang out-of-form horse this season and even bled last time. Sure, Festival form repeats itself but I’d want a bigger price than in 2023.

Sa Majesté has been conspicuous by his lack of mention from Ruby Walsh during this season’s Road To Cheltenham… until he tipped him in his Festival column on this fair website. Memories of State Man’s County Hurdle, anyone? When asked point-blank on last Thursday’s Road show, he said: “He has a squeak, but I don’t take his Limerick run [defeat of Noble Yeats] as literal.”

Built By Ballymore is clearly a player and has been backed accordingly. He ended up winning comfortably at Punchestown last time out, having looked in trouble at one stage. He will clearly ultimately relish an even longer trip than this, however, so I wonder whether he’ll be able to travel and hold his position as required.

As discussed on Monday’s Road preview, there will be no margin for error in this race. Having thrived under positive tactics when blasting his Game Spirit opposition, Edwardstone will be doing the same again here. Tom Cannon is likely to have a smidgen more control because that run should have knocked the edges of his mount’s famous freshness – he’s a bull of a horse who benefits from racing regularly.

Whether Gentleman De Mee can match strides with him must be in doubt, as he can make scrappy errors and is unproven at Cheltenham. Elixir De Nutz, fresh from scalping Jonbon in the Clarence House on the more galloping New Course, might also struggle to lie up in Edwardstone is seeing a stride. Talented conditional (unable to claim again here) Freddie Gingell’s mount can jump very accurately, however.

I think Jonbon was beaten before James Bowen got on board here in January and made a couple of much-analysed tactical mistakes. His mount is not the most straightforward to train and had been kept in a holding pattern from when the Clarence House was rescheduled a week later than its original slot due to the abandonment of original host track Ascot.

He’s traditionally never at his best in his pre-Festival prep, either.  His jumping has admittedly become more careful with each start this season, but Nico de Boinville getting back on board and riding him as he did in the Shloer would be a positive.

Again, I was poised to argue that at 5/1, as compared with the favourite’s 1/2, the price disparity at the top of the market is too large – especially if you buy the trainer’s view that Jonbon did not bring his A-game to last term’s Arkle when brushed aside by El Fabiolo by five-and-a-half lengths.

But given Henderson has always argued a sound surface is important to Jonbon and he’s the sort of character on whom a bad experience might linger, again I wouldn’t be surprised if he were a non-runner.

Much has been made of EL FABIOLO’s potential to make an error – and it’s become overstated. The error he made in last term’s Irish Arkle has been the only gasper and he’s consistently proved able to get his landing gear out without drama. The other memorable aspect of that 2023 DRF contest was how he dominated a deep event conducted at a strong pace. This race set-up will suit him down to the ground. I think he’ll win and impressively at that.

If we do get a relentless end-to-end gallop, blowing apart the field, I could see Funambule Sivola – a similarly picking-up-the-pieces second to Energumene in this race two years ago – clambering into third more readily than Captain Guinness, whose stamina would be stretched. Boothill’s jumping has become unreliable.

Adam Wedge has done the preparatory work on LIBBERTY HUNTER but sadly a back injury means Harry Cobden takes over for the Festival. It’s a great booking but Cobden will benefit from Wedge’s educative skills on a horse that – usefully for trainer Evan Williams – just seems to do enough. He’ll have learned plenty when defeating Matata, an excellent fourth in Tuesday’s Arkle, when they clashed here in January.

There are two other angles of interest. Saint Roi is a Grade One winner over fences as a novice but has clearly been laid out for this race all season, as chronicled in this season’s Road To Cheltenham series of columns. He hinted that he retains his abiulity at Fairyhouse in mid-January when he would have finished much closer but for a rival falling in front of him and hampering his rhythm. With the 2020 County Hurdle and two Festival Grade One placings already on his CV, he must be feared but will need to be ridden more handily than usual.

Unexpected Party is the other. He doesn’t quite get home in top handicap company over two-and-a-half miles but this race will be perfect. It was his intended target 12 months ago but he missed the cut by two. He’s made it comfortably this time, despite the official handicapper’s gift of an 8lb ease in his rating since his creditable fifth in the Paddy Power Gold Cup. Dan Skelton said on last Thursday’s show that this horse has been coming to himself in recent weeks.

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