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Flashback: Angus McNae unpicks last year's QIPCO British Champions Day
Aidan’s rocky run
1 Since Magical’s victory in the 2019 Champion Stakes, Aidan O’Brien has had 34 runners on Chamoions Day but only one winner, who was
Kyprios at 8-11 in last season’s Long Distance Cup. The form figures of his runners since Magical’s triumph reads 0-560730000349-8345-68565-263694-1700790. If you had blindly put £1 on all of his 91 runners at the meeting, you would be losing about £62.
2 The O’Brien-trained
Delacroix, winner of the Coral-Eclipse and Irish Champion Stakes, is set to bow out in the QIPCO Champion Stakes. O’Brien, has had many other wonderful middle-distance colts since the start of the century, but none have landed the ten-furlong showpiece, at either Newmarket or Ascot. His 25 previous male challengers have included Oratorio, Eagle Mountain, Fame And Glory, So You Think, Ruler Of The World, Highland Reel, Serpentine, Japan and Los Angeles. His sole winner of the race has been a filly, Magical, who won at Evens in 2019. The record of his colts and entire horses in the race reads 0409542096052398374749490, but his fillies have fared much better, finishing 2213.
3 The Champion Stakes looks like featuring three horses officially rated 125 or higher:
Ombudsman (127),
Delacroix (126) and
Calandagan (125).
Goliath (126) also remains entered. Since the first Champions Day, in 2011, there have been only three races where at least three of the runners have been rated 125 or higher. The first was the 2011 Champion Stakes, which featured Nathaniel (128), So You Think (126), Cirrus Des Aigles (125) and Twice Over (125). The second was the 2012 edition when
Frankel (140), Cirrus Des Aigles (130) and Nathaniel (126) took part. And the third was the 2021 renewal when Mishriff (127), Adayar (127) and Addeybb (125) lined up.
4 On the subject of ratings, Anmaat became the lowest-rated Champion Stakes winner (at Ascot) last year, when he lined up rated 115. Going into the race, the other winners have been rated 125, 140, 124, 117, 120, 127, 122, 125, 122, 122, 117, 120 and 121.
5
Economicsis on course to run in the Champion Stakes after being absent since finishing sixth in last year’s renewal. Farhh won the 2013 edition after 154 days off (his only previous run that year came when landing the Lockinge) and Cracksman romped home after 122 days off. But when it comes to returning heroes, look no further than Rite Of Passage, who had been off a mammoth 510 days before scooping the Long Distance Cup in 2012.
6 The race that has had the most overall depth on Champions Day? There are several candidates but surely none can match the Champion Stakes in 2011 when seven of the 12 runners were Group One winners. French raider Cirrus Des Aigles upstaged them all, winning at the highest level for the first time. He would finish runner-up in the next two renewals, too, before finishing fifth in 2014.
Frankel's sole winner as a sire
7 Thirteen years have passed since Frankel signed off his perfect career with victory in the Champion Stakes. His brother, Noble Mission, won the same race in 2014, and his son, Cracksman, triumphed in the 2017 and 2018 renewals. However, Cracksman remains Frankel’s only winner at the meeting as a sire.
8 Regarding stallions, Galileo predictably leads the way. He has sired the winners of nine races. He’s had the winner of every race apart from the Sprint. Dark Angel has sired five winners, while Dubawi, Pivotal and Sea The Stars have sired four.
9 Twenty-five favourites and two joint-favourites have obliged for punters since 2011. At least one haw won every year, barring 2013. But 28 market leaders chalked up at 2-1 or shorter have been defeated.
10 Odds-on favourites? Five have won since 2011 (Frankel twice, Order Of St George, Cracksman and Kyprios) and five have lost (Order Of St George, Stradivarius, Palace Pier, Snowfall and Baaeed). Order Of St George is the only horse to win and lose when odds-on.
11 The Arc meeting falls close to Champions Day – it usually follows 13 or 14 days later. However, running at Longchamp has proved no barrier to winning at Ascot. Fourteen runners at the Arc meeting have gone on to win on Champions Day – including Anmaat (40-1) last year, plus Art Power (40/1) and Poptronic (22/1) the year before, when admittedly there was an extra week to recover. A total of 23 winners on Champions Day have had their previous outing in France, so look for clues from abroad.
Do not underestimate French invaders
12 Don’t underestimate French-trained runners in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes. Facteur Cheval was runner-up for them last year, after Big Rock and Facteur Cheval had given them a 1-2 in 2024, meaning they’ve now had four winners and three runners-up from just 15 runners. There have been eight British-trained runners from 115 runners. Nine victors of the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes won on their previous start, six in Group One company.
13 Clive Cox, Kevin Ryan, Joseph O’Brien and Charlie Johnston (like his Dad, Mark, before him) are among notable trainers yet to strike on the big day. Charlie Appleby, who had no runners last year, is among those with only one on the board.
14 Baeed (rated 135 in 2022); Crystal Ocean (129 in 2018) and Nathaniel (128 in 2011) have been the highest-rated runners to have returned home to their respective stables (all in Newmarket) defeated. Baeed was simply below his imperious best; Crystal Ocean had the misfortune to bump into a relentless Cracksman, while Nathaniel was probably involved in the greatest race run at Champions Day in terms of the overall quality on offer.
15 The winners of the Fillies & Mares Stakes in 2021 and 2022 had finished last in their previous race. Emily Upjohn trailed home in the King George, as did Eshaada in the Yorkshire Oaks. And two years ago, Poptronic was only ninth of 14 in the Qatar Prix de Royallieu. Survie finished last in this year's Qatar Prix de Royallieu and remains entered.
16 Eighteen of the horses who have won or been second in the Fillies & Mares have been officially rated between 111 and 115, including last year’s winner Kalapana (113). No Fillies & Mares winner has been rated higher than 116.
17 The Fillies & Mares has never been contested by more than 14 runners, but half of the 14 winners have been drawn in either stall 10, 11 or 12. By contrast, horses drawn in stalls 1,3,5, 6 and 7 have yet to win
The grey brigade
Estrange is on course to run on Saturday
18 Charyn became the ninth grey winner on Champions Day last year, although King Of Steel, the 2023 Champion Stakes winner, was officially roan. Shelir has been the biggest price, when springing an 80-1 shock in the Balmoral in 2022. Solow (2015), Librisa Breeze (2017), Persuasive (2017), Lord Glitters (2017), Roaring Lion (2018) and Art Power (2023) have been the others to prevail.
19 The possible grey runners on Saturday include
Estrange, favourite for the Fillies & Mares, and
Field Of Gold, who heads the market for the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes.
20 A total of 45 horses have won a form of headgear since the Sprint in 2011. None have won.
21 Do not be put off by runners who have had busy campaigns in the Sprint. Glen Shiel was having his eleventh run of the year when successful in 2020, while Maarek (tenth run of the year) and Gordon Lord Byron (ninth, having started the year in Australia) had also been in regular action. The 2023 winner, Art Power, was also having his ninth run of the year, having had two trips to Ireland and two runs in France along the way.
22 Seven winners of the six-furlong feature, since 2013, ran in the Sprint Cup at Haydock the previous month. Six of those seven were beaten at the Lancashire venue – the odd one out being Muhaarar in 2015.
23 The longest race on Champions Day, the Long Distance Cup. has provided the day’s most wide-margin winner, with Trueshan scoring by 7½ lengths in 2020. But it has also produced the tightest finishes: Royal Diamond won by a nose in 2013, as did Kew Gardens in 2019.
Three-year-olds struggle in the Cup
Let's turn the clock back to the first Champions Day in 2011
24 There have been 139 runners in the Long Distance Cup, all of them trained in Britain or Ireland. It’s evidently a tough race for three-year-olds to win, with none of the 20 runners from the Classic generation managing better than second.
25 Forgotten Rules had run only once on the Flat before his win in the 2014 edition. Sheikhzayedroad (11/1) and Quest For More (9/1) dominated the 2016 renewal, having been separated by a nose in the Doncaster Cup the previous month.
26 Two British Classic winners, Frankel (2000 Guineas) and Dancing Rain (Oaks), ran at the first Champions Day and both triumphed, in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes and Fillies & Mares respectively. However, since then, Classic victors have struggled with only Minding, Simple Verse and Kew Gardens being successful from 25 runners. The last-named gained his win a year after his St Leger triumph. It’s the winners of the 2000 Guineas who have found things tough going. Since Frankel, seven more winners of the race have run on Champions Day, often at short odds, and all have been beaten.
27 John Gosden, who now trains in tandem with son Thady, has had ten winners on Champions Day, more than anyone else. However, he didn’t find it a straightforward day to crack early on, as all 20 of his runners during the first four years were beaten.
28 Five of the past eight winners of the Balmoral had run in the 7f handicap at Ascot a fortnight earlier, although only Aldaary (2021) had won. Three winners in the past decade ran in the Cambridgeshire beforehand, with two of them finishing seventh.
29 Aldaary was a trends buster in the Balmoral four years ago. He is the only three-year-old to have won the race from 32 runners, plus is the only to win it carrying a penalty – from 19 who have tried. Six of those defeated when carrying a penalty have been 6-1 or shorter, including 2-1 favourite Sunray Major four years ago. Incidentally, Aldaary is also the only winner with previous winning form at Ascot. Four were having their first run at the track.
Native Warrior, the ante-post favourite, is set to carry a penalty on Saturday.
Gosden's Balmoral hoodoo
30 Gosden could be forgiven for thinking he is jinxed in the Balmoral. He has fielded the runner-up on five occasions without winning it: Maverick Wave (2014), GM Hopkins (2015 and 2017), Remarkable (2016) and Lord North (2019), while Magical Morning was third three years ago in a running where the stable’s 2-1 favourite, Sunray Major, disappointed. He and his son, Thady, could be represented by
Fifth Column this time.
31 Where do you want to be drawn in the Balmoral? Three winners since 2014 have been drawn in stall 4, while only one has been higher than 11. However, plenty of high-drawn horses have figured, including Lattam, second from stall 22 last year. On balance, though, a low draw is probably best.
Carrytheonewon from stall 5 last year.
32 There is a general view that Champions Day is always run on soft or heavy going. It’s a lazy assumption. The word “good” has featured in the going description five times since 2011, and with a dry week forecast it again seems likely.
33 The first four editions of Champions Day passed by without Frankie Dettori having a winner, but he then chalked up 11 winners (from an overall 56 rides) – making him the most successful jockey at the meeting. Nine of his winners were for the Gosden camp, with Ralph Beckett (Kinross) and Roger Varian (King Of Steel) providing the others. However, those following him also had their share of disappointment. He was beaten on 16 favourites.
Thank you and goodnight
34 And, finally . . . 16 horses have won at Champions Day and then been retired. The list is: Deacon Blues (2011), Frankel (2012), Rite Of Passage (2012), Sapphire (2012), Farhh (2013), Charm Spirit (2014), Noble Mission (2014), Muhaarar (2015), Persuasive (2017), Cracksman (2018), Donjuan Triumphant (2019), Kew Gardens (2019), King Of Change (2019), Star Catcher (2019), Bayside Boy (2022) and Poptronic (2023).
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