Champions Day: a tip for every race and outsiders to consider

No three-year-old has won this race since it was first run in 2011 but that masks the fact that Colour Vision was unfortunate not to win the first renewal, and that Stradivarius was beaten only a length behind the top-class Order Of St George in 2017. In addition, another of their generation, Tashkhan, kept Trueshan honest 12 months ago.

That augurs well for Eldar Eldarov, who has to be one of the best three-year-olds to contest the race after his decisive St Leger success last month. The right horses chased him home – the improving Haskoy and solid New London – and he again looked better the further he went.

There should be even more to come from him over 2m on what will be only his sixth start. We also know the track will hold no fears as he performed wonders to get up in the Queen’s Vase at the Royal Meeting in June after giving the runner-up a hefty headstart. His older rivals on Saturday must concede 9lb to him.

He’s won the past two renewals and is officially rated at least 6lb superior to all of his rivals but his surprise defeat at the hands of Coltrane in the Doncaster Cup rings alarm bells. That slow-run race didn’t play to his strengths but he had plenty of time to put the race to bed and looked awkward under pressure.

His overall record suggests he’s very much the one to beat but it’s just possible that his penultimate effort on ground faster than he cares for, when a gallant third behind Kyprios and Stradivarius in an epic Goodwood Cup, has left a mark. In any case, he’s up against a new kid on the block in Eldar Eldarov.

With Kyprios staying at home shining all the trophies he’s won this year, it is left to Waterville and Wordsworth to represent Aidan O’Brien. The former impressed when pouncing late in the Irish Cesarewitch last time but he was clearly exploiting a lenient mark of 99 that day. He would receive 9lb from Eldar Eldarov if this were a handicap.

Wordsworth finished well adrift of Waterville in the Irish Cesarewitch but was given what can only be described as a sympathetic ride after a three-month break. He gets a 9lb pull in the weights, should be sharper here and has run several good races in defeat at Ascot. There’s a bit of unfinished business about him and he’s interesting each-way at massive odds for all that I cannot quite see him emulating his brother, Kew Gardens, the 2017 Long Distance Cup winner.

His form at Ascot stands close inspection and he seems well served by some give underfoot. He was a staying-on fourth from what proved an impossible draw in stall 20 last year, and had also run well 12 months earlier when filling the same position, being beaten a length in a bunched finish.

After missing the first half of this season, the grey seems to be arriving back in peak shape after winning with authority at The Curragh last time. He won as his best form entitled to that day but it was still encouraging the way he powered through the race and ran through the line. David Allan is 2/4 on him and seems to know what makes him tick. His draw in 8 is much kinder than 12 months ago and I’m hoping his jockey will quickly navigate towards the far rail.

He was a decisive winner last year and seems to enjoy the stiff 6f that Ascot provides, plus I’d imagine he will enjoy getting on some easier ground after giving his all under quicker conditions in the Platinum Jubilee, when touched off by stablemate Naval Crown, and July Cup, when fourth to Alcohol Free.

Charlie Appleby has said that the intention was always to give him a break after the July Cup and he had a recent racecourse workout at Newmarket, along with Naval Crown. He’s most reliable, although a draw in 13 is not ideal.

With a rating of 118, Naval Crown is the highest-rated horse in the line-up. But he took a backward step when fading to be fifth in the Prix Maurice de Gheest at Deauville in August and ran lamentably at Haydock last time.

He’s a massive price, given that he was beaten under a length into third behind Highfield Princess and Minzaal in the Prix Maurice de Gheest last time, with such as Rohaan and Perfect Power behind.

Will he be able to reproduce that form here? He undoubtedly has a soft spot for Deauville, with Charlie Hills believing the usual slower early tempo of races in France suits him.

The trainer may have a point as Garrus has not won a turf race in Britain for more than three years, with his latest effort on these shores being a tame run in the Platinum Jubilee. But that run in France last time has a glow and has to make him interesting at the odds on offer.

A wide-open renewal but this stamina-laden filly arrives on the upgrade with plenty of boxes ticked.

She didn’t make her debut until late January and was having only her fourth run on turf when winning the Group Three Legacy Cup at Newbury last time. She impressed in every department, not least with the way she quickened up smartly after being hemmed in on the rail.

Stay Alert had also impressed at Newbury earlier in the year – chasing home Nashwa and then winning in Listed company – before not being seen to best advantage when fifth in the Lancashire Oaks. She was too keen that day in a muddling contest that simply didn’t pan out for her.

A wide draw in 11 may put some off but she’s usually covered up and it may end up as a blessing.

The 700,000gns paid for the Frankel filly as a yearling in 2020 was beginning to look lumpy after she was beaten in her first three races this year but four successive wins have put her back on track.

I was taken by her latest effort under a penalty at Newmarket because the eventual runner-up looked to have pinched a decisive advantage, only for Eternal Pearl to peg her back with something to spare.

She’s definitely more the finished model than she was earlier in the campaign and there could still be more to come.

She looked sure to win over this trip at Leopardstown on Irish Champions Weekend when cruising ahead in the Group Three Paddy Power Stakes only to be caught close home by Duke De Sessa. That must have been hard for connections to take as she had also been beaten a neck in the race the previous year.

Her penultimate effort, when a keeping-on fourth (promoted to third) to La Petite Coco in the Pretty Polly Stakes at The Curragh also reads well. She’s battle-hardened, well served by some give in the ground and her official rating of 110 puts her bang in the equation. Neglected in the market, she looks well worth an each-way play.

This globetrotting colt has not got the headlines he deserves – probably because he hails from a stable where Native Trail and Coroebus were considered his superiors at the start of the year.

He was the dramatic winner of last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf at Del Mar after temporarily being withdrawn minutes before the start and picked up from where left off on his return by landing the the French 2000 Guineas at Longchamp. He clocked up more air miles on his latest start when a runaway winner of the Ricoh Woodbine Mile in Canada.

But don’t assume he’s been picking off low-lying fruit abroad. In between those wins, he beat all bar Baaeed in the Qatar Sussex Stakes at Goodwood. Most of his races have been on a sound surface but it was on the easy side when he made a bold bid in the French Derby – the trip proving just beyond him.

She was last season’s outstanding two-year-old filly, when unbeaten in four races, and landed the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot by almost five length on her return in June before taking the Jacques le Marois at Deauville on her latest start. The third home that day, Erevann, subsequently brushed aside The Revenant at the Arc meeting and so the form makes more sense than it did at the time.

It is perhaps no surprise she is Evens for this prize with such a CV but, for all her talent, she’s never seemed the most straightforward and has little in hand on ratings. Throw in the fact that she’s drawn widest of all and her shock defeat in the Falmouth Stakes in July and the grounds for taking her on become stronger.

I’d certainly want to see how she behave pre-race before banking on her avenging the short-priced defeats that Palace Pier has suffered in this race for the stable in the past two years. Team Gosden could certainly be forgiven for approaching the meeting with some trepidation because they’ve had five beaten favourites at 2-1 or shorter in that period.

He has thrived since being switched to the yard of Archie Watson at the end of last year, with his official rating climbing from 97 to 117.

He has already chalked up four victories in 2022, including over course and distance in late July. His only defeat in three starts at Ascot came on his previous start, when a fine third in the 29-runner Royal Hunt Cup.

Tempus was a little below his best when third in the Group Two Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Joel Stakes at Newmarket last time but he was compromised by a slow start and meeting some trouble in running. The manner in which he stuck to his task suggests he remains in great heart and he seems versatile regards the ground.

He needs no introduction and was imperious when moving up to this trip in the Juddmonte International Stakes at York last time. Finding chinks in him is a thankless task, with the handicapper believing he has between 8lb and 24lb in hand of his rivals. It’s difficult to disagree, with his nearest pursuer last time, Mishriff, giving us a decent gauge to measure him by.

The one niggle, as with so many horses in action on Saturday, is whether a race in mid-October is one too many. But he’s not been exposed to any gruelling battles and the vibes from his camp are strong.

Last year’s Derby and King George hero should be excused his tame effort in this race last year as he’d had only 13 days to recharge his batteries after making a bold bid in the Arc.

The decision to keep him in training has yielded little with Charlie Appleby not satisfied that his star was ready to do himself justice in the first half of the campaign.

His defeat of two inferior rivals at Doncaster last month told us little, but he went about his work with gusto. I like the angle that he’s coming here with fresh legs and you can imagine a scenario whereby William Buick kicks early in the straight and gets first run. But Jim Crowley, on Baaeed, seems unlikely to give him too much rope and will be sitting on a horse with greater gears.

His owners have more than a passing interest in Baaeed as he was sired by their superstar, Sea The Stars. A win for Baaeed is, commercially, a win for them.

But My Prospero is himself out of a mare by Sea The Stars, so perhaps they won’t be too disappointed if he has the temerity to spoil the favourite’s party!

He comes into this still something of an unknown quantity, having had only five runs. His only defeat this year came when a close third in a muddling St James’s Palacve Stakes at Royal Ascot in June and he has since resumed winning ways in a Group Two contest at Saint-Cloud.

My Prospero collided with a rival and fell after his latest run, subsequently requiring a period of rest. But he’s back ready to roll after three months off, with his trainer giving him a favourable mention in a media Zoom call on Wednesday.

He’s been top of my shortlist for a while, so it was with a little bit disconcerting to see him drawn widest of all in stall 23, which will become 20 on the day.

However, a quick flick back through previous renewals has eased my mind with winners drawn just about everywhere. For instance, Escobar (drawn in 21) beat Lord North (20) in 2019 and last year the first three home jumped from 11, 15 and 12.

Migration won handicaps at Goodwood and York’s big Festival meetings last summer, and ran a cracker on his return when touched off by Modern News (a good yardstick) in the Spring Cup at Newbury in April. He’s been absent since but he goes well fresh and will get his favoured easy ground. He stays further so this stiff, straight mile will be made for him.

David O’Meara is something of a master with this race, twice having the winner and going close on other occasions.

The strong-travelling Blue For You looks to have all the attributes to run well for him here and shaped much better than the bare form here a fortnight ago, when he was a bit too keen and possibly just short of his peak after a mini break. Jason Watson gave him an easy time when it was clear he could not win.

Blue For You’s previous win at York’s Ebor meeting, when beating stablemate Escobar, is rock-solid and he’d put together a string of solid efforts before then. He’s reunited with Danny Tudhope.

I recall backing him for the 2017 renewal when he was a three-year-old, in which it transpired he had an impossible task trying to concede 5lb to the year older Lord Glitters. He ran a fine race to be fourth but I didn’t have a penny on him the following year when he landed the Queen Anne at 33-1.

He’s a horse I’ve followed closely ever since and this year he’s been hinting he has another hurrah in him, running several good races back at Ascot over 7f. The now eight-year-old is 1lb lower than when runner-up in the Victoria Cup, in May, and he was an eye-catcher here a fortnight ago when things didn’t pan out for him.

Stepping back up to a mile seems sure to suit him and he’s a big price, each-way, among those firms offering extra places.