BetMGM Sun Chariot Stakes: predicted finishing order

Amazingly, despite rain overnight in Newmarket, the going is still officially Good for Saturday’s meeting. But looking outside of my window right now half a mile or so from the course, it is hard to imagine there not being the word Soft in the going description one way or another, as the rain has not relented all morning and there is more forecast later this evening.

So who will that suit in the feature race on the card, the £275,000 BetMGM Sun Chariot Stakes? Here is my predicted finishing order.

Trainer: Karl Burke. Best odds: 11-4. Official Rating: 115.

There are six Group One wins in this field and four of those belong to this outstanding filly. Karl Burke’s four-year-old should have her optimum conditions here on the easy side of good and she is a strong stayer over this trip.

Her front-running style is also perfectly suited to this track, for all she disappointed in the 2000 Guineas last May, but she has tended to need her first run of the year each season, so that effort can be forgiven.

The cheekpieces she has worn since finishing third at Royal Ascot are retained and James Doyle, who rode her so well when winning the Matron Stakes last time, is also on board again.

Trainer: Roger Varian. Best odds: 11-2. Official Rating: 110.

This progressive daughter of Phoenix Of Spain has a faultless record of five wins from five and falls into the ‘could be anything’ category. She was clearly backwards at two, only making her debut after Christmas at Wolverhampton, where she was sent off relatively unfancied in the market, yet won by four lengths.

She ran three more times on the all-weather last year, culminating in a French Listed triumph, before landing the Group Three Atalanta Stakes just over a month ago on her first run for 255 days and her first run on turf. They went hard in that race, with the front two, herself and the re-opposing Blue Bolt, pulling four lengths clear of the rest, and the time was good.

This demands more, but she is highly progressive and showed a liking for soft ground last time. She is a big player

Trainer: Andrew Balding. Best odds: 15-2. Official Rating: 109.

Another progressive filly capable of going well on soft ground, Blue Bolt looks to hold the best chance of the three-year-olds in this year’s race after posting a career-best effort in the Atalanta Stakes.

Whilst she looked to be outstayed by Lady Of Spain in soft ground last time, being run down late on by half a length, she does meet that rival on 3lb better terms here.

She did not run at two, making her debut on the all-weather in April, before getting off the mark at the second attempt and following that up with two more victories, both on faster ground than she is likely to get this weekend. Fifteen of the winners this century have been from the Classic generation.

Trainer: Charlie Appleby. Best odds: 11-4. Official Rating: 116.

The top-rated filly in the line-up and a dual Group One winner, this fabulous four-year-old was hugely impressive on the Rowley Mile when winning the Dahlia Stakes in May, and she followed that victory up with a win in the Falmouth Stakes over on the July Course after finishing second at Royal Ascot.

She has since been comfortably beaten in the Prix Jean Romanet over a mile and a quarter.

I would have a concern should conditions turn soft, with her best performances all coming on rattling fast ground and she has never ran on ground softer than Good.

She may be good enough - she has bundles of ability and Appleby’s horses come alive at Newmarket, but the value may lie elsewhere.

Trainer: Donnacha O’Brien. Best odds: 12-1. Official Rating: 109.

After beating Cercene to win the Athasi Stakes at the Curragh in May, Atsila has frustratingly not got her head back in front in four more attempts, although all of those races have been at the top level.

A similar story probably awaits at Newmarket, with work to do with several of these rivals – she finished sixth behind Cinderella’s Dream in the Falmouth, eighth behind Fallen Angel in the Prix Rothschild and then an improved third behind Karl Burke’s filly in the Matron last time, beaten just a length and a quarter.

Whilst yet to race on soft, there was some juice in the ground when she posted what was probably a career best last time and there are indications that she may handle softer ground on breeding. Can run well without winning as she bids to be come the fifth Irish-trained winner of the race.

Trainer: Kevin Philippart de Foy. Best odds: 20-1. Official Rating: 107.

If you fancy Fallen Angel, which I do, and you think Atsila might run well, then you probably think Cathedral will run a decent race too after she finished fourth in the Matron Stakes when last seen.

That effort was her stable debut and just her sixth start, having been moved away from Ralph Beckett. She clearly goes will cut in the ground and won the Oh So Sharp Stakes here on her second start last October, so is unbeaten at the track. It is, however, difficult to make a case for her winning after being a beaten favourite in Group Three company twice this year.

Trainer: Ralph Beckett. Best odds: 28-1. Official Rating: 105.

Drawn on the far side in stall 1, like several of these, Ralph Beckett’s filly arrives in Suffolk off the back of two career bests.

Yet to finish outside of the first two in seven starts, she goes well on soft ground but put up a fine performance on good to firm to finish just a neck behind Jonquil in the Celebration Mile at Goodwood last time out - she had previously dead-heated to win the Oak Tree Stakes over seven furlongs.

This is her toughest test to date and my sense is she may get outstayed against this better group of horses, but she won here nicely to break her maiden tag last autumn and she can give another solid account of herself.

Trainers: John and Thady Gosden. Best odds: 40-1. Official Rating: 109.

Drawn nearest to the stands in stall 10, Spiritual ran a mighty race to win the Princess Elziabeth Stakes at Epsom on Derby day by almost five lengths, yet finds herself as a big outsider here.

She trailed home last in the Prix Rothschild when eased out of things and was sixth behind the re-opposing Lady Of Spain and Blue Bolt at Sandown in August, before finishing an improved third in the Sceptre Stakes three weeks ago.

She ran well here on testing ground, albeit at Listed level, last season, and if she returns to her best form, she can outrun her odds, but is difficult to see her having enough to challenge the market leaders.

Trainer: David Loughnane. Best odds: 40-1. Official Rating: 106.

I would give this mare half a chance if the going got really testing, but whilst it is likely to be on the soft side, Newmarket is one of the best draining tracks in the country and I am not sure it will be heavy enough for David Loughnane’s four-time Listed winner.

She has a clear preference for extreme conditions: of her four runs on Good or faster she has twice finished last and finished third in the Princess Elizabeth Stakes and eighth in the Matron Stakes the last twice. Meanwhile, her form figures on Soft or heavier read 11111165111.

Trainer: Hugo Palmer. Best odds: 20-1. Official Rating: 104.

This is also a first foray into top-level company for the Hugo Palmer-trained Cheshire Dancer and whilst the grey has looked progressive lately, following up her third in the Kensington Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot with a second in Listed company, a win in the Group Three Valiant Stakes and a fourth at Keeneland when she was slowly away, this asks a lot more on ground she is yet to experience.