Ante-post tips: Guineas hope Masekela makes appeal at 25-1

As Group One action returns to Newmarket’s Rowley Mile this week, so do some of the best juveniles in Europe, laying down their claims for possible Classic glory next season. The experience they gain on those unique undulations could prove significant when it comes to contesting even bigger prizes next May.

The question is though, who has the most potential to develop into a 2022 Classic star while still offering a bit of ante-post value in the meantime? With four two-year-old Group races spanning Friday and Saturday, there are plenty of possibles to choose from, but two stand out above the rest.

Saturday’s Juddmonte Royal Lodge Stakes favourite Masekela has both the size and scope, as well as the form in the book to do some damage as a three-year-old and he looks overpriced at 25-1 (available with Sky Bet, Bet365, Unibet and others) for the QIPCO 2000 Guineas.

The last horse to do the Royal Lodge Stakes/2000 Guineas double was none other than the mighty Frankel. The closest to do so since was Andrew Balding’s very own Kameko, runner-up in this before winning last year's Guineas.

Masekela may have a bit to go before reaching even his stablemate's level, but he remains a colt on a steep upward curve with the potential for much more, especially at three.

A taking winner on his debut at Goodwood, where he displayed an ability to handle softer conditions, Balding’s charge was then beaten in a hot renewal of the Listed Chesham Stakes at Royal Ascot. Too green for his own good on that occasion, the son of El Kabeir learned plenty and put that experience to good use when narrowly denied by the classy Native Trial in the Group Two Superlative Stakes at Newmarket.

That form, in particular, stands out, with the winner since going on to win the Group One National Stakes at the Curragh in spectacular fashion, as a consequence being installed as ante-post favourite for the Guineas.

Masekela subsequently gained compensation at Newbury with a gritty victory in the Listed Denford Stakes at Newbury, form which has been franked by the runner-up Bayside Boy downing the highly-touted Reach For The Moon in the Group Two Champagne Stakes at Doncaster.

Everywhere you look, this colt’s form is top drawer and Saturday’s Royal Lodge Stakes over a mile could well prove the acid test for next year’s Guineas.

Not convinced yet? Here's what Oisin Murphy told Sportinglife.com this week: “Masekela is the one I’m looking forward to the most this weekend. I’ve loved him since the first time I saw him and although he’s a horse for next year, hopefully, we can get one more run out of him as a two-year-old.”

This colt is bred to relish the step up to a mile, being out of a Doyen mare, while his sire El Kabeir is just beginning to make a name for himself and won over further than a mile himself when trained in the US by Bill Mott. Added to that, dam Lady’s Purse won up to a mile-and-a-half in France, while his talented siblings Asoof and Fashion Theory both won over further than the mile.

Balding’s charge won’t have it easy on Saturday as he takes on impressive debut winner Coroebus for the in-form Charlie Appleby/William Buick combination, while Acomb Stakes winner Royal Patronage is another solid contender.

Victory has the potential to see his Guineas odds tumble. However, even a narrow defeat might not be a disaster on the ante-post front. He’s got the temperament, the pedigree, and the connections to make a splash next May.

Similarly to the Royal Lodge, the Juddmonte Cheveley Park Stakes hasn’t exactly proved a fertile source of future Guineas winners in recent years, with Special Duty the last to win both in 2009/2010. Yet this year’s renewal is shaping up to be a cracker, with multiple Group winners in the field, and the Irish raider Sacred Bridge topping the board.

A filly of the utmost potential, Ger Lyons' charge has gone from strength to strength this season, remaining unbeaten through four races and building quite a following in the process

The strapping daughter of Bated Breath began her career with a taking success at Naas in June before following up in Listed company over the minimum trip.

Serious questions were then asked of her when going off a short-priced favourite for Ireland’s most valuable two-year-old Sales race, the Ballyhane Stakes. Colin Keane’s mount duly obliged with an electric final furlong surge to nab the English challenger, Bosh. It was then that both Keane and Lyons knew they had another smart juvenile on their hands with the potential to go on and keep improving.

The Group Three Round Tower Stakes has given rise to some smart three-year-olds in recent years, with subsequent July Cup winners Ten Sovereigns and US Navy Flag on the roll of honour.

Sacred Bridge added her name to the list last month with one of the most impressive displays by any juvenile seen this season English or Irish shores. If connections were looking for a ‘wow’ performance, they certainly got it at the Curragh.

Saved for a first crack at Group One company since, Lyons said in the aftermath of that display: “The Ballyhane was a good, tough performance, but was that a Group One performance? No. I kept expecting something to beat her but after the last day, I felt she deserved her place at the top table.”

The burning question after Saturday may be whether she is a Commonwealth Cup horse or a 1000 Guineas contender? From a visual impression, you'd surely favour the latter as she shapes as though she’d relish a step up in trip. Never better than at the line in each of her races and with a temperament to die for, she would give herself every chance of seeing out the trip. Indeed, there are some simlarities to her Classic-winning stablemate Siskin who managed to stretch out to a mile as a three-year-old having run exclusively over six furlongs as a juvenile.

In terms of pedigree, the Juddmonte Farms-owned filly is bred first and foremost to be speedy being by Temple Stakes winner Bated Breath. It’s from there on it gets interesting, though, with the dam Sacred Shield winning up to a mile-and-a-quarter for Sir Henry Cecil, while her sister Viadera (formerly trained by Lyons) won a Grade One over a mile at Del Mar last November for Chad Brown. The dam’s sire, Beat Hollow was a strong stayer on the Flat and probably best known now for breeding some classy jumpers, including this year’s Cheltenham Gold Cup winner Minella Indo.

All in all, 20/1 (with Bet365, Sky Bet and William Hill go 16s) about next year’s 1000 Guineas looks an appealing play at this stage in a Classic where solid Group One form going into the race can sometimes prove thin on the ground. Victory on Saturday would very much make her an obviously strong candidate.