Ante-post tips: 2025 Paddy Power Gold Cup and Unibet Greatwood Hurdle

Il Ridoto did us a favour when landing the Paddy Power Gold Cup last season, and there is a strong chance he will strike again this year. 

This is certainly the time of year to catch the eight-year-old who has produced most of his career-best efforts on his second outing after a break, and he also performed well in this race in 2022 (fourth) and 2023 (third) without a prep run. 

He took a huge step forward from his return at Chepstow last year en route to Paddy Power Gold Cup glory and contested the same race on his seasonal debut in October. As expected, Paul Nicholls said in his Betfair column that Il Ridoto would improve for the outing, and he was not given the hardest time under pressure when chasing home Saint Segal following a fine round of jumping. 

Those exertions should have him primed for a repeat bid here, and he is just a pound higher now (he also raced 3lb out of the handicap last year) following a string of below-par efforts last term, which has become the norm for Il Ridoto after early-season success. 

Given Gidleigh Park and The Jukebox Man are unlikely to run, I don’t think this year’s renewal of the £160,000 contest will be any stronger, and Il Ridoto appeared value for more than the winning margin suggests 12 months ago having idled in front after quickly putting the race to bed in the straight. He clocked a fast time, too, and scored 8.5/10 on the RaceiQ Jump Index. 

Nicholls, who bids for his fifth win in this race, operated at a strike-rate of 21 per cent in October, which is another plus, and Il Ridoto is likely to be his only runner. 

Progressive six-year-old Jagwar, a potential Graded horse in a handicap, would be an obvious threat if lining up, although he lacks a run, which may be a negative given his demeanour (Oliver Greenall has described him as "the biggest horse we've ever had"). I’m also not convinced the Old Course at Cheltenham will be favourable for him, mainly because he's prone to mistakes, and might find things happening too quickly.

I struggled to make a strong case for any of the other potential contenders, and if Il Ridoto repeats last year’s performance, he could take plenty of beating.

Olly Murphy has his team in red-hot form having operated at a 41 per cent strike-rate in October, and hopes must be high for Sticktotheplan in the Unibet Greatwood Hurdle following his impressive win in the Dragonbet Persian War Novices' Hurdle under a 5lb penalty last time out.

That was also his first outing for Murphy after claiming Listed glory over two miles at the Galway Festival on his final start for Cormac Farrell, who always held this five-year-old in the highest regard. Murphy’s charge travelled powerfully, and jumped fluently, at Chepstow when wearing a first-time hood and, given his high cruising speed, stepping back in trip should not be a hinderance. That also looked a decent race on paper, with a number of exciting youngsters in opposition, and while further improvement will be required to defy a rating of 143, this five-year-old is thoroughly progressive plus has only had eight starts under rules. 

He looked a work in progress for his previous connections, too, and I believe he is potentially the class act here based on his Chepstow success. The general 12-1 available therefore seems fair, and Murphy confirmed that Sticktotheplan is being aimed at this race in his latest Betano blog, although did warn his charge would not want the ground too soft. 

With double-figure odds on offer, that's a risk I'm willing to take, and I would be surprised if he is not sent off a leading fancy should conditions be optimal.

The other standout contender is Celtic Dinowho potentially remains ahead of his mark following a 4lb rise for his victory in the DragonBet 'Welsh Champion' Hurdle in October, his first run since a luckless defeat at Aintree. He was sent off the well-supported 6-4 favourite at Chepstow, and Sam Thomas was mulling a tilt at the BetMGM Fighting Fifth Hurdle afterwards.

That signals the regard in which this six-year-old is held in, and I presume connections had a rethink when he was assessed, with a rating of 141 enticing them towards a valuable handicap before stepping up to Graded company. 

He also appeared to score easier than the winning margin suggests given he kicked for home early in the straight, and had his rivals on the backfoot a long way from home.

The runner-up, Alexei, boosted the form in style when powering to success in a decent Ascot handicap next time out, while the third (Wilful) produced some useful efforts in strong handicaps last season. Admittedly, those rivals were expected to need the outing, but Celtic Dino is also entitled to strip fitter now, and that looks a key form clue. Those rivals could take him on again in the Unibet Greatwood Hurdle, but both will need to improve again to reverse the form.

Thomas has warned that Celtic Dino will only run if the ground is good, so that is the potential negative here, but I can't let him go unbacked at 10-1, especially as the form of his novice races last season have worked out well, most notably when he defeated impressive William Hill Hurdle winner Joyuese at Ascot. He also performed creditably in the William Hill Formby Novices' Hurdle on unsuitable going.

Described as a "big baby" by his handler last year, the six-year-old looks to have more to offer this season and, provided he gets his ideal conditions, he looks sure to go close. Fingers crossed the rain stays away!

Paddy Power Gold Cup: IL RIDOTO at 8-1 (with BetVictor, Ladbrokes and Coral).

Unibet Greatwood Hurdle: STICKTOTHEPLAN at a general 12-1.

Unibet Greatwood Hurdle: CELTIC DINO at 10-1 (with BetMGM and VirginBet).