Ante-post tips for the Paddy Power Gold Cup and Greatwood Hurdle

Ginny’s Destiny heads the betting at a general 4-1 (at the time of writing) and Paul Nicholls has been vocal about his chances in recent days. This eight-year-old improved enormously throughout last season and, based on the strength of his form in Grade Ones, he should be capable of defying a rating of 155 in handicap company. 

He also has a very similar profile to last year’s winner Stage Star who won this on his return to action off the same rating, and he’s only had six chase starts, so could improve even further this year. 

One concern for Ginny’s Destiny is that he missed his intended prep run for this contest and, given he badly needed his first outing last season, that is a negative here, despite the fact he has been for an awayday instead. 

If he’s close to peak fitness, then he could potentially outclass his rivals, and he’s a worthy favourite. 

However, it is IL RIDOTO, another Ditcheat inmate, who catches the eye at a best-priced 10-1, and this contender has the benefit of a recent run having finished fifth at Chepstow in October, his first outing since another wind op over the summer. 

Nicholls said in his Betfair column that it was a prep run for the Paddy Power Gold Cup, and his seven-year-old certainly looked in need of a pipe-opener beforehand. 

He’s been dropped a further 2lb since and now finds himself on a rating of 138 which makes him look nicely treated given he finished third on his return in this race last year off a 6lb higher mark. 

He was only narrowly beaten (off 143) in the December Gold Cup (watch above) afterwards, too, and I expect that huge effort may have left its mark as he failed to show his best thereafter. 

With Harry Cobden likely to ride Ginny’s Destiny, there’s a good chance Freddie Gingell will be aboard Il Ridoto again meaning his burden will be eased a further 3lb. 

The selection should be primed for this and is certainly handicapped to go close. His liking for and ability to handle most conditions are other positives, and he looks a solid each-way bet at double-figure odds. 

There are plenty you can make a case for in the Unibet Greatwood Hurdle at this stage, and two who look to hold strong credentials are

BURDETT ROAD

and

BE AWARE

.

The latter is held in high regard by the Skelton team and shaped with bundles of promise last season, including when narrowly denied in the bet365 Novices' Championship Final Handicap Hurdle, the same contest Iberico Lord finished runner-up in before winning this race last year.

That was just his fourth start over hurdles, and he pulled clear with Kamsinas (who won a useful handicap at Aintree in October) prior to that, which looks useful form.

On the evidence we have seen so far, a mark of 130 could be lenient for Be Aware who is expected to take a big step forward this season, and his yard are in excellent form. 

The lightly-raced youngster lacks a recent run, but Dan Skelton won this race with North Hill Harvey (2016) and West Cork (2021) who were both returning from absences, so his charge is unlikely to be lacking fitness for a race that has been the plan for some time. Burdett Road shot to the head of the JCB Triumph Hurdle betting after winning a Trial at this meeting 12 months ago (over course and distance) before being firmly brushed aside by Sir Gino next time out, and James Owen’s charge ended up bypassing the Cheltenham Festival.He's since returned to the Flat and has improved a few pounds over the summer, which hints he could be well in off a rating of 133 returning to hurdling. He was last seen finishing sixth behind Kyprios in the Long Distance Cup and was not beaten far by some higher-rated rivals. Connections have been schooling him regularly over the past month (with this race in mind) and he arrives here at the top of his game plus Owen is operating at a strike-rate of almost 30 per cent (at the time of writing).There’s still a chance Burdett Road will develop into a Graded performer over obstacles, and it will be disappointing if this four-year-old isn’t able to go close. The other that made the shortlist was Go Dante and while I wouldn’t put you off backing him each-way, he may just prove vulnerable to a younger rival who is a few pounds ahead of the handicapper. He also relishes soft ground, so will need the rain to arrive over the next couple of weeks. I’ll probably end up having a saver on him, though, just incase! 

Paddy Power Gold Cup: IL RIDOTO (each-way) at a general 10-1.

Unibet Greatwood Hurdle: BE AWARE (win) at 12-1 with bet365.

Unibet Greatwood Hurdle: BURDETT ROAD (win) at 8-1 with Paddy Power and Betfair.