Angus McNae's Dubai World Cup tips: Japanese mare overpriced in Sheema Classic

Dubai World Cup day is here an in my opinion it's the best raceday of the year, bar none. I feel very privileged to be part of the live broadcast on Racing TV and I hope you'll join us to enjoy the action - and hopefully cheer on a winner or two.

It is a meeting that throws up many difficult conundra as a new group of international raiders fly in to challenge the proven form of those who have already graced the Carnival so far. In general caution is advised, bar the Sheema Classic in which I have a very strong selection.

If he doesn’t bounce off a comeback win last time out he is definitely the one to beat. To bounce or not to bounce, that is the question, but its an impossible one for punters. I am giving him the benefit of the doubt given his obvious talent and the fact that he didn’t have a very hard race when winning here last time. He has won his last six races here at Meydan where his ability to travel strongly close to the pace has served him well. He proved that he stays a mile well when he won on Super Saturday and he can take this for trainer Doug Watson who has captured two of the last runnings of this race.

This race seems to come down to the unbeaten Panadol against the three Japanese horses who are next in the market behind him. I hope they will be behind him in the race too. Panadol has won both of his career starts making all here at Meydan both times, destroying maidens before seeing off better rivals in the Al Bastakiya on Super Saturday. I think he will be able to blaze the trail and dominate here, just as he has done on his last two starts. Stall six gives him and his jockey Mikael Barzalona a great chance of gaining a tactical advantage and if the rail is riding fast he will be very hard to peg back.

In truth I initially wanted to be with Matera Sky here, but having analysed the pace in this race I think he will be compromised by other pacey front runners who are drawn low. In essence this race has the look of being one where the pace collapses and I’m taking a punt at a double-figure price that Wildman Jack can pick up the pieces. He is a classy and versatile horse who won the Nad Al Sheba Trophy here on turf last year on Super Saturday, setting a new track record. He returned to form winning at Santa Anita last time out and now he looks set to benefit from a wild pace set-up. He is worth chancing.

I am keeping the faith. This horse is a real talent, quirky but so talented. His lightning-fast win at Newmarket last season showed what he could do and a similar performance would see him win this. He was beaten by Lord Glitters here last time out, but there was evidence in the performance that suggested better might be to come. He was too keen off a streaky gallop before sauntering into the lead two out at which point he looked like he would win, but he got tired having pulled hard and didn’t see the race out. This time with hopefully a stronger gallop to track I really believe we could see a performance from this horse that is in alignment with his latent potential.

In my opinion this is the best bet on the card. Japanese horses are consistently under-rated, as was the case with their brilliant Almond Eye. This five-year-old has won three Grade 1s and was only beaten half a length and a neck by that aforementioned mare in the Tenno Sho last November. Since then she has had one run winning the Grade 1 and fiercely competitive Arima Kinen. She has reportedly settled in well in her new UAE environment and at a best-priced 11-4 at the time of writing, she is simply over-priced. Mishriff will be popular, but a wide draw and a quick turnaround from his recent big-money win in Saudi puts me off him.

This is not the greatest renewal of the Dubai World Cup, but it’s still a tremendous race. The local challenge may just have to play second fiddle to the American raiders even if they do not have claims to being anywhere near as good as the likes of Arrogate and California Chrome, who both won this race. Mystic Guide is lightly raced and was very impressive when winning at Oaklawn last time out. He has a magnificent dirt pedigree being by Ghostzapper out of an AP Indy mare and his prominent run style is ideal for this track. Make no mistake Arrogate would street these and Mystic Guide is no Arrogate, yet he may well be good enough to win. Don’t rule out a complete boilover here, but Mystic Guide looks the most solid play.