Angus McNae and The Verdict: Breege has Royal Ascot potential

The figures never lie is not a maxim that everybody believes in. Instead it is usually visual impressions that formulate strong opinions, but such opinions have no foundation - however wise or experienced the purveyor of such thoughts might be.

Should you ever find yourself looking down on cars on a motorway, ask yourself how fast you think the cars below you are going? It’s impossible to know with any degree of accuracy - you would be guessing. Similarly it is impossible to guess how fast a horse has run through any individual furlong of a race.

Educated guesswork will of course at times give a quite accurate picture of how a race was run, but in an era where sport punditry is increasingly dominated by quality analysis we should surely now be embracing the figures that paint the most accurate picture of what happened in a race.

We need to move away from judgements that rely upon visual impression that is only then subsequently backed up by the numbers. The numbers should come first and in this column they will be front and centre of my analysis.

The figures I will be using are produced by Racing TV's timing partners Coursetrack. Believe your eye if you want, but the truth lies out there in the GPS tracking of every horse that runs on a racing TV track.

Before looking at some of this weeks action. Here is a stark example of how the figures can debunk a theory that is put out there and then gathers a bizarre momentum of its own.

Apparently, Native Trail hits a flat spot in his races and did so in the Craven Stakes at Newmarket. What constitutes a flat spot is in itself an argument in semantics, but it certainly indicates that the horse was either slowing down or struggling to quicken or was perhaps outpaced.

A look at the Coursetrack numbers debunk this visual theory with ease. The truth is that just when he was hitting this mythical flat spot he was actually quickening, he was going faster. He wasn’t dabbing on the brakes, he was pushing down on the accelerator.

Here are his closing Coursetrack sectionals - numbers he achieved while supposedly hitting a flat spot.

Rather than flattening out, with each successive furlong he was getting faster. A classic example where Coursetrack sectionals can complete a picture and debunk myths.

There was no Classic action in the last seven days, but some interesting races to analyse from a sectionals point of view.

Last Tuesday, John Quinn introduced a nice two-year-old filly at Wetherby called Breege. The figures show that she has a sharp turn of foot which she produced off a steady gallop.

The Finishing Speed Percentage (FSP) that she achieved was 105.78%, telling us that she finished the raced off strongly. The individual sectionals that she achieved showed that the race turned into a two-furlong sprint with the winner dashing through the fourth furlong in 11.31s and the fifth in 11.6s.

That burst of speed was too much for her rivals and she is clearly a very speedy filly who is surely bound for Royal Ascot. Whether she can produce the same performance in a more strongly-run race remains to be seen.

Emotion put up a striking staying performance at Kempton on Wednesday night. She has a pedigree full of stamina being by Frankel out of a Lomitas mare and she dominated this field, winning by 16 lengths.

The numbers tell us that she dictated an even gallop with mid-race sectionals of 12.59s 12.63s 12.50s and 12.41s. She then pulled away from her rivals as she turned for home clocking 11.94s for the ninth furlong and 11.8s for the tenth furlong.

Those numbers don't mean much in isolation, but she was the only filly in the race to run a furlong in less than 12 seconds and whilst those she beat may not be that good it is better to ask how fast she ran rather than discuss the depth of the race. She is entered in the Cazoo Oaks and is a 33/1 shot.

Real Dream is a must for your Racing TV tracker. He finished fourth at Nottingham on Friday. The race was won by West Wind Blows, who dictated an even pace as evidenced by the FSP of 102.72%.

When a horse is able to run as evenly as he did they are hard to peg back particularly if the pursuers are inexperienced and green. That was definitely the case with Real Dream who was clueless throughout the race and very raw - yet he still managed to run the final three furlongs quicker than any other horse bar the winner. Here are their three furlong splits:

Real Dream will be winning sooner rather than later and must be given an upgrade based upon these timings.

Aldaary won the Listed Spring Trophy at Haydock on Saturday and the figures show that he is a good deal better than the bare result.

The race was very steadily run. The FSP of the winner was 109.19%. This tells us that he ran the final three furlongs 9.19% quicker than he ran the rest of the race.

In other words he quickened really well from the back of the field to reel in the others who were not stopping. The sixth (11.36s) and seventh (11.34s) furlongs were his most impressive sectionals which took him past his rivals very quickly. Given that he was inconvenienced by being held up in last in a slowly run race this can be put down as being a very smart performance.

He is entered in the Queen Anne at Royal Ascot, where he will be a major player as long as there is some ease in the ground. All of his wins have been achieved with cut.

A fillies' maiden at Nottingham on Friday is a race that I think will work out very well. The winner was the William Haggas-trained Sea Silk Road.

She finished the race very strongly with a final three furlong split of 35.76s and that was just under a second quicker than any other horse in the race. The seventh furlong of 11.61s was her most impressive furlong and took her clear of her rivals.

The runner-up Queen Of The Skies was given a considerate ride and shaped encouragingly and is another must-add for your Racing TV tracker. She was ridden close to the pace but couldn’t match the seventh furlong speed of the winner, 0.71s slower. She did keep on well though and was not given a hard time.

Sea Silk Road is entered in the Ribblesdale at Royal Ascot and this Nottingham race looks sure to work out well in the weeks ahead.