Glorious Goodwood ante-post tips: "she looks overpriced at 66-1"

The Nassau Stakes takes centre stage on day three of the Qatar Goodwood Festival and we could well have another “duel on the Downs” with likely runners Diamond Necklace and ESTRANGE heading the market.

There is a big price discrepancy between the two, though, with Aidan O’Brien’s unbeaten three-year-old priced up at 6-4, and David O’Meara’s recent Pretty Polly Stakes heroine available at 4-1.

At those odds, I would be firmly in the camp of the latter, who has the best form in the book and proved her liking for Goodwood when hacking up by five and a half lengths on debut.

Ground versatile, she is hugely consistent and posted a career best over 1m2f last time – the first time she had been seen over that distance since her two-year-old days. 

It won’t be easy giving 9lb away to the three-year-olds, but that weight allowance is there for a reason and Blue Bolt made light work of Precise when giving weight away in the Falmouth Stakes last week.

The jury is still out on how strong the three-year-old fillies are, and Diamond Necklace only scrambled home to win the Prix de Diane last time on the fastest ground she had encountered.

Estrange is also 16-1 for the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. Given the record of fillies and mares in the race, and the likelihood of her turning up in Paris in October, this looks a very fair price. Expect her to shorten up considerably in that market should she make it three from three for the campaign at Goodwood.

The final day of action at Goodwood looks hugely competitive at it looks worth rolling the dice with one at big odds in the feature Group race of the day, the Qatar King George Stakes over five furlongs.

No sprinter has yet to prove themselves as the best in the division, particularly over the minimum trip, and so it may pay to look at of the more lightly-raced contenders with scope to improve for this speed test.

One that fits the bill at huge odds is Tim Easterby’s REVIVAL POWER, a full-sister to the yard’s Nunthorpe winner Winter Power. The chestnut filly is not as good as her older sibling, but she has strong juvenile form, including finishing second over this course and distance at last year’s meeting, before going on to win two Stakes races, including the Flying Childers at Doncaster.

She then set a blistering gallop in the Cornwallis before fading into fifth, where they broke the juvenile course record.

Things have not gone her way this season, but there have been excuses. Firstly, when doing far too much in front when shouldering a penalty and needing the run on her first start for 216 days, then when facing an impossible task from a low draw at Ascot, and most recently on Saturday where she became upset in the stalls and again overraced in front.

This speedier, downhill test at Goodwood should enable her to use her blistering speed to better effect and she has been the subject of glowing reports from her trainer, with the Nunthorpe reported to be her main target over the winter months.

That assignment looks a tough ask, but if she can learn how to race more economically, she has the ability to get involved in this Group Two contest at a massive price.

Qatar Nassau Stakes: ESTRANGE at 4-1 with Ladbrokes, Coral, bet365.

Qatar King George Stakes: REVIVAL POWER at a general 66-1.

Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe: ESTRANGE at 16-1 with William Hill, bet365.