2021 WellChild Cheltenham Gold Cup: Ante-post bets, including a 25-1 fancy

Will Al Boum Photo become the first horse since Best Mate to win the WellChild Cheltenham Gold Cup three times in March?

The dual winner of Jump Racing’s blue riband contest is a best-priced 3-1 to do just that, and deservedly so given he returned with a 19-length victory in the Savills New Year’s Day Chase in January, the same race he has won en route to success in the Cheltenham feature for the past two years.

Some were not that impressed with his reappearance effort, but he encountered softer ground than the previous two years, and Willie Mullins was surprised at how much his star chaser needed the outing that day, given he had not run since March.

He still beat the 156-rated Acapella Bourgeois with ease though, and I would say his performance was just as good as the previous year.

The nine-year-old beat Santini by a diminishing neck in the Cheltenham Gold Cup last year, and if the race was ten yards longer, we would be asking whether Santini will record back-to-back Gold Cup victories instead.

However, if you watch the race back, Al Boum Photo was travelling so well that Paul Townend was forced to take up the running after jumping the fifth last plus was being pestered for the lead thereafter.

It is probably testament to Al Boum Photo’s ability that he fended off all challengers and I think his success would have been more authoritative had he been waited with like he was in 2019.

Another question mark is how strong was the form of last year’s race? Santini has failed to sparkle this season, as has Lostintranslation, and Monalee suffered defeat on his only start since.

Delta Work, Kemboy, Clan Des Obeaux and Bristol De Mai were just some of the star names in behind them though, and the second, third and fourth had all produced strong form that season prior to the Gold Cup, so maybe the race left a mark on them, and that is why they haven’t shown their best form since.

Santini did look an unlucky loser last year as he had to switch to mount his challenge and was closing all the way to the line.

He has not looked in the same form this season though, despite the fact he has had excuses on each occasion, and he was never travelling that well in the Cotswold Chase last time out.

If he does bounce back to his best in March, then he will be in the mix as he has produced his career-best efforts at Cheltenham, but it is hard to be overly confident about his chances.

The betting suggests A Plus Tard – chalked up at a general 7-1 – is Al Boum Photo’s main threat. Henry de Bromhead’s charge was available at 66-1 at the start of the season for the Cheltenham Gold Cup, but proved he stays three miles when successful in the Savills Chase.

He still needs to prove that he stays further than that distance though, despite looking in need of every yard of the trip in the Savills Chase.

Kemboy and Melon took each other on a long way from home in that contest, and that took its toll on them in the closing stages, which left A Plus Tard to pick up the pieces.

I didn’t think A Plus Tard looked a horse who was crying out for an extra six furlongs, especially around Cheltenham, when third in the Ryanair Chase last season, either.

He is also by Kapgarde, whose progeny include Clan Des Obeaux, Fakir D’oudairies, Garde La Victoire and Edgardo Sol, and his offspring tend to be suited over distances less than three miles.

If A Plus Tard does stay the Gold Cup trip, then he certainly has a chance, but I would rather side with a horse proven over the distance.

Champ has not been seen since his dramatic victory in last year’s RSA Chase, and it will be interesting to see how he fares in the Betfair Denman Chase at Newbury.

Yes, he was still a novice, but he did not impress with his jumping at last year’s Festival, and it is unlikely he will be able to get away with similar errors in the Gold Cup.

It is also a concern that he is heading to Cheltenham in March without an ideal prep this season, and connections will have surely wanted to get at least two or three more runs into him over fences before running in the Gold Cup.

The improving Royal Pagaille demolished his opposition in the Peter Marsh last time out and the Rich Ricci-owned gelding is now rated 166, which does not leave him with much to find with the leading protagonists.

However, he possibly coped with conditions best on the day at Haydock and it is questionable how strong the form is, with his main rivals failing to complete in that contest. The seven-year-old is also chalked up at 8-1 for the Brown Advisory Novices' Chase.

Kemboy has some of the strongest form in Ireland next to his name, but I don’t think he is best suited to Cheltenham, and the Stayers’ Hurdle is also under consideration.

Personally, I would bypass Cheltenham with Kemboy and keep him fresh for Aintree for another tilt at the Betway Bowl, the race he won impressively in 2019.

You could argue Frodon is the leading British hope in this year’s Magners Cheltenham Gold Cup judged on his victory in the King George on Boxing Day, and he deserves his first tilt at this race following that performance.

However, the majority of his rivals in the King George had excuses, and he is unlikely to get his own way out in front in the Gold Cup, especially with Native River in the field.

Colin Tizzard’s star chaser bounced back to his best in the Cotswold Chase last time out - where he had everything in his favour - and doesn’t appear to have lost any of his enthusiasm, despite being an 11-year-old.

A case can be made for him, but I expect connections didn’t leave much to work on at Sandown, whereas runner-up Bristol De Mai, and third-placed Santini, are sure to have come on for the run, with bigger targets in mind.

Of the others, Minella Indo remains with potential, although he struggled to land a blow in the Irish Gold Cup, and lacked fluency with his jumping under pressure, so will need to raise his game to be competitive.

Connections are favouring a tilt at the Ryanair Chase with Allaho, and this sort of test surely does not suit Cyrname who threw in the towel a long way from home in the King George.

With question marks and doubts against most of the contenders, it is hard to side against AL BOUM PHOTO. He may have only had one run this season, but that tactic has worked for the past two years, and there is no reason why it won’t again.

The only concern would be if the ground was soft or worse, as both his Gold Cup wins have been on good to soft, and it probably won’t suit him if the race becomes a real test of stamina.

Lostintranslation was beaten less than two lengths in the Gold Cup last year, and has had excuses on both starts this season, including when he bled in the King George last time out.

He is a best-priced 25-1, which is too big based on his effort 12 months ago, and he proved last year he is capable of bouncing back from a below-par run.

The nine-year-old is set to run in the Betfair Denman Chase ahead of Cheltenham, and if he returns to form in the Newbury feature, then he will certainly be sent off shorter than 25-1 for the Gold Cup.

If he fails to fire again, then he is unlikely to run at Cheltenham, so he is worth small investement at 25-1 NRNB.

3 points win on AL BOUM PHOTO at 3-1.

0.5 points each-way on LOSTINTRANSLATION at 25-1 (NRNB with Betfred).