2YO Classification: five things we learned

Shadow Of Light has been crowned Champion Two-Year-Old in the European Two-Year-Old Classification of 2024 and, while his pretty unique feat of winning the Middle Park and Dewhurst in the same season – just the third time this has happened in just over a century – will take the headlines, there are further points to note from today’s unveiling.

Graeme Smith, the BHA Handicapping Team Leader, along with IHRB Handicapper Mark Bird and trainer Charlie Appleby spoke to the media on Tuesday morning to provide context around how the 120 rating assigned to Shadow Of Light rates historically in addition to further insights not solely tied to the formbook.

Appleby was adamant that he will “most definitely” try in the Betfred 2,000 Guineas. 

“I’d imagine we’re just going to straight into a Guineas; I don’t really want to be testing him over the mile beforehand as it suits timing-wise but secondly I’d rather keep our powder dry and dream alive realistically going into a Guineas.

“On the evidence on what we saw at the back-end and the way the horse relaxes and his mannerism, he gives himself the best chance to see out the mile. Obviously there will always be question marks on some of his pedigree, but if you dig into it there’s enough substance to suggest that a mile should be within his compass. 

“I see no reason why he won’t see the mile out. I’m not lacking in confidence, but as we all know until you step up to that mile it will always be a grey area.”

The Dewhurst split into three groups despite just a five-runner field last autumn and Appleby also takes optimism from how Shadow Of Light won that race ahead of going up in trip. 

“What gives us the confidence is that William [Buick] said I won my race on the far side, I had to allow the horse to come across to then be involved in the second race, and he wasn’t stopping and he was hitting that rising ground in testing conditions and going through the line.”

On his colt’s current wellbeing, Appleby was positive: “Physically you’d have a job to knock him. He looks great and he’s done all the maturing that you’ll want to see from two to three. If we get a fair run into the Guineas you’d have a job to knock him in the paddock, that’s for sure.”

While the 120 rating for Shadow Of Light meant he was the best Middle Park winner since Dream Ahead, that final number is “not an outstanding figure by two-year-old champion standards” according to Smith. 

The representation of the fillies this year is more exceptional, though, with 12 in the final Classification the highest since 2017. Lake Victoria is the first champion two-year-old filly to win three Group Ones in a year, and remarkably she did this over three different distances and in three different countries.

She’s the first filly since Found in 2014 to be overall champion two-year-old in Ireland – “something that doesn’t happen very often” as stressed by Mark Bird – while that 119 rating leaves just 1lb shy of Minding and equal at the same stage to the likes of Finsceal Beo and Zarkava.

“A very exciting filly,” say the handicappers, adding: “She was a clear champion in what was a really strong year for fillies, and that really says a lot about her.” 

Last year’s Tattersalls Acomb Stakes was won by The Lion In Winter over seven furlongs on quick ground in what was regarded beforehand as a test on the sharp side for the Sea The Stars colt, but he triumphed and in style all the same and the handicappers are clear about the merit of the form in view of the final Classification - despite the race holding Group Three status. 

“In my nine years doing handicapping, the strongest Group Three I’ve ever come across,” said Graeme Smith, while Charlie Appleby – who ran favourite Ruling Court in the race – added that credit was merited for the change in conditions to remove the previous win restriction and hence boost the potential pool of horses eligible to line up, meaning “it will only get better year on year that race now.” The trainer also said that “up until the Dewhurst, the Acomb was one of the strongest juvenile races of the season.”

Mark Bird continued that The Lion In Winter was “wildly impressive there really” and that generally the standard of a race for the Acomb would be aroundd 110, with the winner signing off as a two-year-old with a rating of 118. 

“The [new] conditions allowed higher quality runners to take part but it was a track record; conditions during the week at York were conducive to fast times but nonetheless he was very impressive in beating Wimbledon Hawkeye and Ruling Court, with the three pulling well clear of everything else. 

“From what we’ve been able to rate, he’s a colt of the highest quality and very much one to look forward to. It’s a pretty strong rating for a Group Three winner, but we’re confident in that rating.”

Assigned a rating of 117, Desert Flower holds the distinction of being the highest-rated filly ever trained by Charlie Appleby and the trainer sounded hopeful of more to come still from his Guineas hope in 2025. 

“I’d imagine we’d just go straight into the Guineas,” he said. “I’m more of a fan of going straight into the Guineas without a prep, just timing-wise it suits us better and there’s a long season ahead.”

Appleby said the Night Of Thunder filly is “doing very well,” adding: “She’s a big and scopey filly but we struggled to get weight and condition on. From December and January, she’s done very well and we’re delighted with her.”  

Desert Flower is 4-1 second favourite behind 3-12 market leader Lake Victoria for the Betfred 1,000 Guineas at Newmarket on Sunday May 4th. 

The introduction of the Commonwealth Cup has given trainers a later-season target for uncertain stayers over a mile, and the Royal Ascot contest has perhaps taken away runners from the Newmarket colts’ Classic that may have chanced their arm over the distance in previous years.

While Irish handicapper Mark Bird was speaking in a professional capacity at today's conference, he did offer a personal view on the importance of the Classics. 

“For the purists, that is seen as the top standard and, personally, I always like to see [horses] try. I don’t think there’s a lot to be lost by trying and failing; you want to try and create narrative and stories around horses and you want to see them often as possible. The build-up – ‘will the horse stay the mile?’ – that adds to the whole thing I think.

"It’s something that Flat racing probably needs to be conscious of. If we can have the best horses running in the best races that helps market the sport.”