York super stats: two selections for Thursday

It doesn’t take a genius to point out that three-year-olds have dominated the Yorkshire Oaks this decade, with only the Sir Mark Prescott-trained five-year-old Alpinista interrupting the run of Ballydoyle Classic generation winners since Enable swatted away her three younger rivals for her second win in 2019.

That may prove to be the case once more on Thursday as the Epsom and Curragh heroine Minnie Hauk bids to add another Oaks to her ledger. The biggest question mark with her might be that this will be the quickest ground she has run on, but her half-brother Tilsit enjoyed it, and she has easily the best form, with her stablemate Whirl heading to an alternative engagement. The only negative is that 19 of the last 20 winners had at least six previous flat runs under their belt, but she is battle-hardened and has a class edge here.

Of her three rivals, Estrange would be unbeaten but for an off-day at Yarmouth 11 months ago. She has been brought along steadily since but may also have some ground concerns, and it’s worth noting that 15 of the last 18 winners already had a Group 1 win to their name.

Elsewhere on Thursday’s card, in-form, match-fit sprinters proven over six furlongs are the order of the day in the opening Lowther Stakes as nine of the last 12 winners had won on their last start, the same number had at least one run over the trip, while 11 of the 12 had their last run within the last 41 days.

Stayamay not have won on her most recent start when trying this trip for the first time in the Princess Margaret Stakes late last month, but she did well to come from as far back as she did to chase home all-the-way winner Fitzella. That Ascot Group 3 has provided three of the last 10 winners (Besharah in 2015, Living In The Past in 2019, and Zain Claudette in 2021) and eight this century in total.

Along with Argentine Tango, her deep book of form may prove to be a better building block than the undoubted potential of Duchess of Cambridge runner-up Royal Fixation and thrilling debut winner America Queen (15 of the last 17 winners had at least three runs to their name).