We will find out on Tuesday morning what the handicapper made of Prince Of India being beaten only two-and-a-half lengths in the July Cup.
He went in to the race with an official rating of 102, which was between 7lb and 17lb lower than the opposition. But he was bang in the picture at the finish, despite being a bit short of daylight in the closing stages.
The Marco Botti-trained four-year-old had been a little disappointing this term but first-time blinkers seemed to work the oracle as he moved well in rear and stuck to his task.
He was a smidgeon off being the fastest in the fourth furlong (10.83sec), was one of only four horses to dip under 11sec in the fifth furlong (10.96sec) and was fourth fastest in the final furlong (12.51sec), being quicker than the winner, Comanche Brave, and such as Japanese ace Satono Reve.
Prince Of India is entered in the valuable Moet & Chandon International Handicap over 7f at Ascot on Saturday week and will be able to run off his old mark of 102, assuming the official assessor pushes him up in the ratings, which looks inevitable. My best guess is that he will go up between 8lb and 10lb.
*Editor's Note: not a bad guess, Andy. Prince Of India has been pushed up 9lb to 111
So, he’s going to be lining up on the back of a personal best off a favourable mark. William Hill are on the ball and have cut him to 8-1, but Paddy Power and Sky Bet still offer 20-1.
He will have an extra furlong to tackle but is a two-time winner over 7f, admittedly around bends on the all-weather.
Moreover, Prince Of India does not stride like an out-and-out sprinter. He averaged 2.34 strides per second at Newmarket, which was lowest of the whole field, and his maximum frequency of 2.38 was also lowest.
The four-year-old boasts winning form at Ascot, scoring over 6f on Shergar Cup Day last August when swooping from off the pace and being easily strongest at the finish. Ignore his subsequent below-par run at the track as he was moving strongly when almost knocked over.
I’ll be amazed of Botti can resist reverting to handicap company. And if he does line up, then he surely cannot go off at 20-1.
The 5f handicap that opened the meeting at Ascot provided a blanket finish with under two lengths covering the first seven home.
But it will almost certainly be a race to keep a close eye on over the weeks ahead as it looked a deep sprint beforehand and yielded an excellent speed figure. The win time was 1.40sec quicker than the RaceiQ par, with the Time Index being 9.3 when the meeting average was 6.6.
Dubai Bling, the winner, is entered in the Coral Stewards’ Cup at Goodwood next month, in common with Fandom (third), Run Boy Run (fourth) and Annaf (seventh).
The data reminds us that Dubai Bling can fluff the start, plus he will now have a penalty to carry, so the 14-1 available about him following up on the Sussex Downs (most firms go 10-1 or 12-1) should perhaps be resisted.
Annaf, trained by Mick Appleby, is a general 20-1 and makes more appeal.
He was having his first run over a bare 5f for three years and sat out the back for much of the race before catching the eye with his finishing effort under considerate handling from Cieren Fallon.
Annaf was marginally fastest in the fourth furlong (10.88sec) and passed five rivals in the final furlong courtesy of his final split of 11.53sec (third fastest).
The 2023 Portland winner, who also has a Group Three success on his CV, will be well served by moving back up to 6f at Goodwood and will run off a mark of 100, which is 6lb lower than he won off at Ascot at the backend of last year.
He also has some unfinished business in the big sprint, having been badly hampered two furlongs out in last year’s edition when moving well.
There’s probably no need to dwell here as I’m sure Danger Bay’s luckless run did not slip your attention.
His Racing TV post-race results’ comment read “headway over 3f out, soon denied clear runs and shuffled back, in clear 1f out and ran on well, nearest finish (finished 5th, placed 4th)”.
Denied clear runs, plural, summed things up and it was a case of what might have been for the lightly raced four-year-old, who ended up being beaten an aggregate of four lengths behind the winner, Raammee, who had hinted he had a race like this in him.
Danger Bay did play a part in his own downfall, being only 18th fastest to 20mph. That led to him languishing in 17th place after the first furlong, and he had only got past two more rivals by halfway.
Raammee’s 11.41sec eighth furlong from out wide swept him from 11th to first and he did not look back, but Danny Tudhope tried navigating the congestion nearer the rail on Danger Bay and the pair ended up getting strangled.
Flashback: Ed Bethell told us more about Danger Bay after a win at Hamilton last year
It took Danger Bay 12.79sec to negotiate the ninth furlong because of his travails, which was only 11th fastest and 0.78sec slower than Raammee. A full second equates to about six lengths.
Once in the clear, with any chance of victory gone, Tudhope accepted his fate, but his partner still kept on under his own steam to complete the final furlong in 12.27sec. That was at least 0.28sec quicker than anything else, and 0.44sec swifter than the winner.
Danger Bay had previously bolted up in the Zetland Gold Cup at Redcar on his return and clearly has another good prize in him.
I’d imagine Ed Bethell and connections will now eye the £100,000 Sky Bet Steve Birch Finale Stakes back at York’s Ebor Meeting on August 22.
The More Thunder Supporters’ Club may have lost a few members after his defeat when hot favourite for the Group Two feature.
Those who sent him off at Evens never looked like collecting as he kept on to be a never-nearer fourth behind Zeus Olympios. His Finishing Speed Percentage was 113.43% and this clearly did not get anywhere near the bottom of him.
Now is not the time to give up on a horse who had previously finished second in the Lockinge and Queen Anne, when finishing ahead of Zeus Olympios each time.
A mile round a bend in a steadily run contest on fast ground was never going to show him in the best light. The slow/very slow early fractions led to the race getting a Time Index of 5.1, when the meeting average was 6.6.
He’s a horse who lacks wants a proper end-to-end gallop, probably on a straight track, such as is in the Wokingham last year when he zoomed from 22nd to second in the final two furlongs.
Fairly typically, he took his time to reach 20mph – 2.76sec on this occasion, slowest of the bunch – and raced in the second half of the field, being last of the eight runners with two furlongs to run.
The five-year-old was fastest through the penultimate furlong (10.79sec) and final furlong (11.29sec) but the damage had been done.
The Group One Prix Jacques Le Marois at Deauville looks an obvious target for him, while the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes back at Ascot on Champions Day should also suit, not least because he is versatile regards ground.
Super Saturday had almost run its course by the time Ashen finished runner-up in this 6f handicap.
It was agonising viewing for backers of the 15-8 favourite as it looked like his late flourish had snatched him the spoils. But the photo-finish revealed he had failed by a short head to claw back course specialist Iris Dancer, who was wining her 12th race at the track.
Ashen bungled the start, surrendering several lengths to his rivals by taking 2.94sec to reach 20mph. Overall, it took him 14.6sec to complete the first furlong, which was 0.79sec (approaching five lengths) slower than the winner.
However, he then had the distinction of being fastest of the field in each of the final five furlongs, making incremental gains, but he ran out of road, even if he was officially credited with the same time as his conqueror.
The overall time was 1.10sec quicker than the RaceiQ Par, with the Time Index being 7.8, when the meeting average was 5.7. It should stand up.
This not the first time that Ashen has been a bit dozy at the start, but he is just the type of horse Jim Goldie keeps squeezing improvement out of. He ran off 67 at the weekend, having started life in handicaps off 74 for Marcus Tregoning.
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